We expect a long day for Brock Purdy and Sam LaPorta as the Detroit Lions visit the San Francisco 49ers in Sunday's NFC Championship Game, and our Lions vs. 49ers NFL player props based on the best NFL odds.
The San Francisco 49ers stand as the unanimous favorites according to the latest Super Bowl odds just hours out from kickoff of Championship Sunday. They are also heavily favored in Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions, but that doesn't imply it won't be a challenging matchup for Brock Purdy and Co.
Purdy led a late touchdown drive and rescued the season for the team favored by most Super Bowl predictions despite having an overall rough performance against the Green Bay Packers last week. He'll need an improved effort to secure a victory against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Lions have already clinched their first two playoff victories in 30 years this season and aim to maintain their momentum against the NFC's top seed.
In addition to our Lions vs. 49ers prediction and our NFL predictions for Championship Sunday, here are our best Lions vs. 49ers NFL player props for the NFC Championship Game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lions vs. 49ers NFL player props: NFC Championship Game
- Brock Purdy to throw an interception (+106 via FanDuel) ?????
- Sam LaPorta Under 48.5 receiving yards (-105 via DraftKings) ????
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 yards longest rush (-110 via FanDuel) ????
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Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship props
Purdy was fortunate to survive last week's win over the Packers without an interception, as the second-year QB had multiple throws that probably should have been picked off. I don't suspect he'll be so fortunate in the NFC Championship Game.
Lost in the discourse this season about whether Purdy was the league MVP was a stark assessment of his inconsistency as a passer. The 49ers QB finished with 18 turnover-worthy plays in the regular season, per PFF, and he got away with this brutal miscue in the divisional round:
Purdy hasn't yet thrown a playoff interception, but his adjusted completion rate (66.7%) ranks second-worst among 14 qualified passers this postseason. He's also struggled under duress, which could be an issue against a Lions defense that led the league in pressure rate (28.2%) in the regular season.
Given how bad this Detroit defense has been in base personnel, I wouldn't be surprised if we see three or even four safeties on the field to match San Francisco's myriad playmakers. We've seen Purdy struggle against teams with a similar approach – remember those four INTs against the Ravens? – and I don't anticipate him keeping his powder dry on Sunday.
One other note to consider: five of Purdy's 11 interceptions this year came in a three-week stretch with Deebo Samuel hurt, when he combined for nine turnover-worthy plays in three straight losses. If Samuel can't go this weekend or isn't at full strength, look out.
Our Philip Wood further discussed the 49ers QB with his Brock Purdy NFL player props.
There are a few reasons I like this prop, but the main one is the tough matchup for LaPorta against a 49ers defense hellbent on taking away the middle of the field.
San Francisco's stats against tight ends won't jump off the page from the regular season, but this defense is built to take away the center-third thanks to star linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, who both grade out among the best coverage linebackers in football.
Nearly 70% of LaPorta's catches this season have come over the middle of the field, which is where the lion's share of his production came in the NFC Divisional Round, too. He played that game last week through a lingering knee injury while seeing the fifth-most snaps (65) of his young career.
Maybe the rookie tight end is matchup-proof and injury-proof, but he did finish with just 14 receiving yards on Wild Card Weekend, which was his third game in four weeks with fewer than 30 yards. This total feels like it's based more on LaPorta's season average (52.3) than the actual circumstances he'll face on Sunday.
I like the Lions' chances of running the ball successfully in the NFC title game, but the timeshare in Detroit has me nervous to bet the full-game yardage total for either running back. Instead, I'm backing the dynamic Gibbs to break one loose on Sunday.
The No. 12 pick in April's draft has been arguably the NFL's most electric rusher this season – ranking second in runs of 15 yards or more (16) and yards after contact per attempt (2.5) and third among running backs in yards per attempt (5.2).
Unsurprisingly, he's busted at least one run of 17-plus yards in 12 of 17 games (70.6%) entering the NFC Championship Game, including seven of his last nine contests. That run was extended last week with a critical 31-yard touchdown run to break an early fourth-quarter tie against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Now Gibbs faces a 49ers defense that ranks 25th in EPA/rush allowed and surrendered a 53-yard run of its own early in the fourth quarter. San Francisco already struggles to contain the edge on run plays, and it'll only take one for Gibbs to turn the corner and cash this prop.
Lions-49ers player props made Friday at 2:30 a.m. ET.
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