College basketball does not have to compete with the NFL playoffs for viewers on Saturday for the first time in two weeks, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday based on the best college basketball odds.
At the start of the week, the college basketball season had already seen 22 AP top 10 teams lose road games to unranked opponents, which was the most before February in AP poll history.
Four more such games were added to the tally this week: South Carolina beat No. 6 Kentucky, Alabama beat No. 8 Auburn, Northwestern edged No. 10 Illinois in overtime, and Nevada knocked off No. 24 Colorado State. How many more upsets will we see on Saturday's loaded college basketball slate?
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 -star scale).
Saturday's college basketball best bets
- Cam Carter (Kansas State) Under 12.5 points vs. Houston (-115 via bet365) ????
- Day Day Thomas (Cincinnati) Over 17.5 PRA vs. UCF (+100 via DraftKings) ???
- Iowa State -3.5 vs. Kansas (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Cornell +3 vs. Princeton (-115 via Caesars) ????
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Saturday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Kansas State vs. Houston | Spread: Houston -15 | Total: 127.5
- Seton Hall vs. Marquette | Spread: Marquette -9 | Total: 145.5
- Kansas vs. Iowa State | Spread: Iowa State -4.5 | Tot al: 143.5
- Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma | Spread: Oklahoma -4.5 | Total: 141.5
- Texas vs. BYU | Spread: BYU -7 | Total: 150.5
- Indiana vs. Illinois | Spread: Illinois -14.5 | Total: 154
- Clemson vs. Duke | Spread: Duke -8 | Total: 151
- TCU vs. Baylor | Spread: Baylor -5 | Total: 152.5
- Utah State vs. Boise State | Spread: Boise State -3 | Total: 146
Saturday's college basketball player props
Per college basketball analytics expert Evan Miyakawa, Kansas State is one of a handful of teams that has only had three different players lead it in scoring in an individual game. Thus, the brunt of the scoring responsibilities has been left to Cam Carter, Arthur Kaluma, and Tylor Perry on a nightly basis. While all three players averaged 14.5 points or better per game this season, those averages figure to lessen against a Houston defense that leads the country in adjusted defensive ef ficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage allowed, and blocked shot rate.
Carter and Perry are the only Wildcats guards averaging at least five points per game. That is significant because one of them will draw the primary defensive attention of Jamal Shead, who, per Evan Miyakawa, has the best defensive performance rating in the country. In addition, Synergy data reveals that opponents average 0.752 points per possession when Shead is their primary defender, and he also leads the nation in defensive win shares. Thus, we are making Carter's Under for total points a four-star play, as we expect Kelvin Sampson to utilize Shead mostly on him, as Carter leads the Wildcats with a 24.4% possession rate.
We are making this wager at bet365, as DraftKings charges a price of -120 for the same number.
Cincinnati has lost four of its last five games, and its success has seemed heavily predicated on the play of point guard Day Day Thomas. In those four losses, Thomas was held to single-digit points three times, although he erupted for a season-high 21 points in a win over TCU. With the Bearcats being favored at home over UCF, we expect the best out of Thomas.
The junior point guard averages 10.9 points, 3.3 assists, and 2.5 rebounds, which adds to 16.7 PRAs. However, the Bearcats have also played some of the toughest competition in the league, with their four losses coming against teams that could find themselves in the NCAA tournament (Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas). Thomas should enjoy the reprieve from playing a UCF team that is a different team defensively away from home, allowing 77-plus points in three of its four true road games.
Get the best price on this wager by using our DraftKings promo code.
Saturday's college basketball game picks
The amount of ranked te ams losing on the road has been staggering this season, and there have not been many tougher venues for ranked teams to play at in recent memory than Hilton Coliseum. Iowa State's 32 home wins against top 25 teams are the third-most since 2011-12, trailing only Kansas's 48 and Indiana's 34.
The Jayhawks have shown their vulnerability on the road lately, losing 91-85 at West Virginia a week ago. In that game, the Mountaineers rebounded 34.6% of their misses, their highest offensive rebounding percentage in nearly two months and the highest that Kansas allowed since a 34.3% offensive rebounding rate in a non-conference loss to Marquette in November.
Kansas commits turnovers on 16.5% of its possessions (ranks 132nd), and ball security will be vital against an Iowa State defense that forces turnovers at the highest rate in D-I (26.6% of opponents' possessions). In addition, while freshman forward Johnny Furphy is coming off a season-high 23 points in the Jayhawks' last game against Cincinnati, ShotQuality data suggests Kansas is due for some significant regression when he plays with the rest of the “big four” in Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar, KJ Adams, and Dajuan Harris. Those five together have a net average of 0.35 points per possession but average only 0.14 net ShotQuality points per possession. In addition, we expect Kansas' limited bench production (the Jayhawks rank 355th in bench minutes) to be its undoing in a road game against a team as physical as the Cyclones.
Most of our best sportsbooks opened at -3.5, but BetMGM is the only one that remained at that number, while all other competitors went to -4 or -4.5.
Cornell and Princeton are two of three teams undefeated in Ivy League play, and the winner of this game has an early inside track to the regular season conference championship. While Princeton is by far KenPom's highes t-rated team (it is 53rd, and the next closest is Yale at No. 95), the Tigers have always had difficulty at Newman Arena, and the Big Red have won three of their last five home meetings against solid Princeton squads.
Cornell ranks third in the country in effective field goal percentage, and we expect it to expose Princeton's overall lack of size in its starting frontcourt, as the Big Red have the nation's best 2-point shooting percentage (63.1%). Granted, Cornell attempts the 17th-most 3-point shots per field goal attempt, and its successful 2-point shooting largely results from teams extending on the perimeter and giving up driving lanes. However, we also expect the Big Red defense to impact the game, as they lead in Ivy League play in turnover rate forced (20.6%).
Princeton is 15-1 overall, but is just 2-3 ATS as a road favorite, while Cornell is 3-1 ATS at home, and is a perfect 5-0 as a home underdog since 2020.
We do not mind paying up slightly to make this wager at Caesars, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering the underdogs at a number better than +2.5
College basketball best bets made Friday at 10:37 p.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)