The Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship Game, and our Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL player props based on the best NFL odds expect a busy day on the ground for both teams.
For the first time in their careers, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes will face off in the postseason when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship. Only one will be able to keep their team's Super Bowl odds alive.
Jackson enters this game as the Super Bowl MVP odds favorite after a stellar season that ended with him as the NFL MVP odds favorite, too. His dual-threat skill set is a key reason why the Ravens are our pick in our Super Bowl predictions – though we expect the Chiefs to put up a fight against an elite Baltimore defense.
In addition to our Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction and our NFL predictions for Championship Sunda y, here are our best Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL player props for the AFC Championship Game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL player props: AFC Championship Game
- Lamar Jackson Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Isiah Pacheco Over 14.5 rush attempts (-110 via bet365) ????
- Travis Kelce Under 62.5 yards (-110 via bet365) ???
- Isaiah Likely to score a touchdown (+410 via FanDuel) ???
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Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship props
This bet isn't about Jackson's brilliance as a designed rusher, though that certainly never hurts when betting on his yardage props. Rather, I'm drawn to this wager after watching Jackson's answers for a blitz-heavy game plan in the AFC Divisional Round.
The 2019 MVP faced a career-high 75% blitz rate in last week's win over the Houston Texans, and he responded with 120 passing yards and two touchdowns in those dropbacks. It was a statement game for Jackson after years of struggling against the blitz.
In addition to his response as a passer, though, he also ran it 11 times for 100 yards on the afternoon – both his second-highest marks all season – with 48 of those yards coming off four undesigned scrambles.
Jackson will almost certainly face a heavy dose of the blitz this week from Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has blitzed Jackson a combined 60 times in four previous meetings. He's found success doing so, but the elusive QB has still cleared this rushing total in three of those four games, including a 107-yard effort in these teams' last meeting in 2021.
This prop is dealing at 66.5 at two of our five best sports betting sites with Over 65.5 priced at -130 or worse at at two others. The lone exception is BetMGM, where these standard -110 odds make an already compelling wager that much sweeter.
The Chiefs' offense that we came to enjoy in the early Mahomes era isn't the one we should expect on Sunday, as coach Andy Reid has leaned into Pacheco and the run game amid the myriad issues with Kansas City's receiving corps.
In last week's win over the Buffalo Bills, Pacheco turned 15 attempts into 97 yards and a touchdown – his seventh game with at least 15 carries in his last eight contests. He's also earned a 70% snap share in both playoff games this year after seeing that volume just three times in the regular season.
The Ravens' defense is elite in so many ways, but it's been quietly vulnerable against the run, ranking 10th-worst in EPA/rush allowed and eighth-worst in opponent yards per attempt (4.5). That's somewhat by design, as Baltimore plays with a light box at one of the NFL's highest rates to better protect against the pass.
That doesn't seem set to change with Mahomes on the other side, so I'd expect he and Reid to use the run game as a way to gash the Ravens or force them to adjust. There's potential value in Pacheco's yardage prop (63.5 via bet365) and anytime touchdown odds (+130 via BetMGM), but this is personally my favorite way to attack the matchup itself.
Not only do the Ravens love to play with light boxes, but they also prominently feature three safeties and have one of the best coverage linebackers in football roving the middle of the field. None of that bodes well for Kelce in this one.
In the regular season, the Ravens allowed just 47.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends and held the position below 60 yards in 12 of 17 games. Baltimore limited Texans tight end Dalton Schultz to 43 yards in the divisional round, which came a week after the Pittsburgh Steelers' Pat Freiermuth was held to 21 yards by the Ravens in Week 18.
Kelce clearly hasn't been the same player this year as in seasons past, and while he cleared 70 yards in his first two playoff games, both came against decimated pass defenses that lacked the personnel to match up. That simp ly won't be the case on Sunday.
I usually only detail my three favorite plays for any given game, but I'd be remiss if I didn't highlight this for a small play at these odds, which is by far the best price across our best sportsbooks on what has become a regularity for this Ravens offense.
Likely has scored in five of his last six games entering Sunday and has emerged as arguably the team's best red-zone target in the absence of star tight end Mark Andrews. It remains an open question whether Andrews (ankle) will make his return on Sunday, and it seems rather unlikely that he'd see a full workload if he does.
Either way, Likely has been too good for Baltimore to put him on the shelf in Sunday's AFC title game. I'd bet this at +300 or better, so these +410 odds from FanDuel are simply too juicy to pass up.
Chiefs-Ravens player props made Friday at 12:30 a.m. ET.
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