The Kansas City Chiefs (11-7) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (12-6) on Jan. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Baltimore, MD.
The Ravens are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Chiefs vs. Ravens Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win the AFC Championship game with 63.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.
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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- Kadarius Toney has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Justice Hill has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Isaiah Likely has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Justice Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Dalvin Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Keaton Mitchell has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Ravens vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 48.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 |
| Rashee Rice | 60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
| Justin Watson | 13.5 -120 | 13.5 -110 |
| Travis Kelce | 62.5 -110 | 62.5 -120 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 21.5 -120 | 21.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Ravens vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 60.5 -125 | 60.5 -105 |
| Justice Hill | 31.5 -120 | 31.5 -110 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 64.5 -115 | 64.5 -115 |
| Gus Edwards | 38.5 -120 | 38.5 -110 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 20 games (+15.70 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 10-7 (+2.3 Units / 11.5% ROI).
- Chiefs are 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -6.67% ROI
- Chiefs are 6-12 when betting the Over for -7.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chiefs are 12-6 when betting the Under for +5.4 Units / ROI
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens went 12-6 (+5.4 Units / 27.2% ROI).
- Ravens are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 14.8% ROI
- Ravens are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -9.6% ROI
- Ravens are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.01% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs are 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .661.
The Chiefs are 4-3 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .270.
The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) after a loss since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .475.
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Ravens are 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception this season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 8 passes this season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Ravens are undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .359.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have run successful plays on 46.1% of rush attempts this season — 4th-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 46.3% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.