The Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, as we make the best Chiefs vs. Bills NFL player props for the Divisional Round based on the best NFL odds.
Earlier this season, the Bills defeated the Chiefs 20-17 in Kansas City.
For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes threw for 271 yards, 83 of which were to his favorite target, Travis Kelce. On the other side, James Cook caught five passes for 83 yards and a touchdown to lead the Bills to victory.
The Bills dominated time of possession in that meeting, but they netted fewer yards than the Chiefs. What should we expect from both teams on Sunday?
Here are our best Chiefs vs. Bills NFL player props for the Divisional Round (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Bills NFL player props: Divisional Round
Last season, Jerrick McKinnon scored a touchdown in the Chiefs' final six games of the regular season, as he took the fantasy world by storm. This season, it's Pacheco who has become a touchdown machine. But, unlike McKinnon, his scoring has carried over into the postseason.
Pacheco has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games. Though he isn't used a significant amount in the passing game, he did score a receiving touchdown in Week 17. Pacheco didn't play in the previous meeting between these two teams, and he may struggle to pick up yards. But in the red zone, he will find his way into the end zone like he has done the entire back half of the season.
The price for this prop ranges at our best sports betting apps from -105 to +120. We'd take it as low as +115 but would avoid going any lower than that.
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Pacheco's impact in this game can't be understated. In the prior meeting between these two teams, the Chiefs managed just 82 rushing yards, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire led the way with 39. The lack of success on the ground mixed with the Chiefs playing from behind for most of the game led to a lot of passing attempts for Mahomes.
Yet, Mahomes still completed just 25 passes in that game. With Pacheco in the lineup, the Chiefs will be able to run a more balanced offense, which means Mahomes won't throw the ball 43 times.
The Bills are allowing just 21.4 completions per game. With the Chiefs' drop issues this season, and a better game script for Kansas City, Mahomes will go Under this mark.
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Bills barely used their receivers at all. Sixteen of Josh Allen's 23 completions were caught by either tight ends or running backs. While Dawson Knox ended the game with more yards than Dalton Kincaid, it was the rookie who caught five passes on eight targets.
The Chiefs did a great job covering Stefon Diggs in the first game. The Bills' top receiver was targeted 11 times but caught only four passes. This means that the Chiefs aren't going to be able to change their game plan much on Sunday. If they sell out to cover short-yardage stuff, they run the risk of letting Diggs burn them deep.
This leaves the door open for Kincaid to have another solid receiving performance. He has at least five catches in nine games this season.
Some of our best sports betting sites have the price for this Over as short as -105. To get it at +125 is too good to pass up.
Chiefs vs. Bills player props made Saturday at 11:45 a.m. ET
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