The second NFC Divisional Round clash features Tampa Bay on the road at Detroit, and we offer our best Buccaneers vs. Lions NFL player props for the Divisional Round based on the best NFL odds.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only NFC team to reach the playoffs each of the last four seasons, and they punched their ticket to the divisional round with an emphatic 32-9 home win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The victory was head coach Todd Bowles' first playoff win of his career, and Tampa Bay has won six of its last seven games.
The Detroit Lions, having tied a franchise record with 12 regular-season wins and recently securing their first playoff victory since 1991 with a 24-23 win over the Los Angeles Rams, ended the NFL's longest active playoff win drought.
In addition to our Baker Mayfield props and Buccaneers-Lions prediction, here are our best Buccaneers vs. Lions NFL player props for the Divisional Round (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Buccaneers vs. Lions NFL player props: Divisional Round
Given how poor Tampa Bay's rushing offense was all season compared to how good Detroit's run defense was, it begs the question of how often the Buccaneers will challenge the Lions by running the football.
Detroit has the NFL's top-ranked rush DVOA and ranks sixth in rushing defense EPA per play, whereas its secondary is much more vulnerable, ranking 29th in coverage, per PFF. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay ended the regular season ranked 29th in rushing offense success rate and ranked dead last with 88.8 rushing yards per game.
Mayfield threw for a career-high 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. Though he attempted 35-plus passes in just two of the previous eight games, he should see plenty of volume against a Lions defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to attempt at least 35 passes in four straight games.
The juice is higher at FanDuel, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U of 34.5 passing attempts, but we prefer to pay up for the lower number than back the standard -110 odds at the O/U of 35.5 offered elsewhere.
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Given that we expect Mayfield to air it out early and often in this game, we also believe there are plenty of reasons that running back Rachaad White will be a primary beneficiary of that aerial attack.
This is the perfect buy-low spot on White, as he is coming off a game against the Eagles with one reception on three targets for three yards. However, Philadelphia hardly got a pass rush on Mayfield all game, which meant the quarterback could push the ball more downfield, and the game script did not necessitate many throws.
Tampa Bay is a near-touchdown underdog to Detroit so it could be in catch-up mode late, and Detroit has allowed 253.4 passing yards per game this season including the playoffs, the third-worst mark in the league.
Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson has two-plus sacks in three consecutive games, including a career-high seven pressures against the Rams, so Mayfield should have plenty of need to dump off to White if the Lions defensive end is living in his backfield.
White has four or more targets in three of the last four games, and he recorded at least 22 receiving yards in five of the last seven.
All of our best sports betting sites are offering an O/U of 21.5 receiving yards and have the Over juiced to at least -114, which makes bet365 our destination.
Among our best sportsbooks, the Lions have an O/U of 3.5 team total touchdowns at DraftKings, and the Over on Jared Goff's 1.5 passing touchdowns is juiced to -166, so we are happy to get behind Detroit's stud tight end Sam LaPorta to find the endzone.
LaPorta may have had a mediocre stat line against the Rams in terms of yardage (14 receiving yards), but he secured all three of his targets and found the endzone, and should be even healthier now that he is another week removed from a knee injury he suffered in Week 18.
LaPorta faces a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends since Week 10, and we expect his route run rate to increase higher than the 73.3% he produced last week.
In addition, the Buccaneers have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game since Week 14, so Detroit should employ a more pass-heavy attack, just as we expect from the Buccaneers. LaPorta is a great bet to find the end zone at least once for the sixth time in the last nine games.
BetRivers is on the low end among our best NFL prop betting sites with +110 odds, making the +140 at FanDuel a great value by comparison.
Buccaneers vs. Lions player props made Friday at 4:11 p.m. ET
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