The Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon, as we make our best Baker Mayfield NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Baker Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns during the wild-card round as the Buccaneers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9. Mayfield has now thrown for 300-plus yards three times in his last five games.
The Lions just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 367 yards against them. He was the fourth consecutive quarterback they've given up 345-plus yards against. Is Mayfield about to produce another huge game?
In addition to our Buccnaeers-Lions prediction, Buccaneers-Lions player prop picks, and Jared Goff player prop picks, here are our best Baker Mayfield NFL player prop predictions for the Buccaneers-Lions Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Baker Mayfield NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round
- Baker Mayfield Under 260.5 passing yards (-104 via Caesars) ???
- Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via bet365) ???
- Baker Mayfield Over 35.5 passing attempts (-121 via Caesars) ????
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Baker Mayfield player props
The Lions' secondary has been destroyed in recent weeks, and Mayfield has been playing really well. So, why is this total so low? This feels like a trap from oddsmakers to get the public to back the Over.
There's also history to consider beyond the fishy line. Mayfield threw for just 206 yards against the Lions earlier in 2023-24, and his team trailed th e entire game. Additionally, Brian Branch and C.J. Gardner-Johnson didn't play for the Lions that day.
The Lions have been burned in recent weeks, but some of the throws that Stafford made last week simply aren't possible for Mayfield. Mayfield and the Bucs' offense have been inconsistent all season. When something feels this easy, it rarely is, so approach it with caution.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games. He's gone against some very weak secondaries during that stretch, but Mayfield won't see an increase in competition during the Divisional Round. However, the Under is still the right play.
The signal-caller didn't throw a single touchdown pass against the Lions earlier this campaign. That was one of just two zero-touchdown performances from him in 2023-24. Though he'll likely throw at least one on Sunday, the only way he's getting two is if the Bucs score a meaningless touchdown late.
For as good as the Rams' offense looked last week, they scored their two touchdowns on huge plays. The Lions clamped down in the red zone and will likely do the same this week. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are big-play threats, but they're not as dangerous as Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, especially with Mayfield throwing them the ball.
Though many are expecting this to be a close game, the Bucs are likely to play most of it from behind. That would mean plenty of passing attempts from Mayfield. But even if the Bucs don't fall behind, they won't be able to run the ball against the Lions, which means plenty of throwing.
The Lions are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per attempt during 2023-24, and the Bucs rank last in that metric. The Bucs will need to throw regardless of the game script. Just look at their blowout wild-card round win when Mayfield t hrew 36 times.
The price for this prop is expensive. All of our best sportsbooks have set this total set at 35.5 except for FanDuel. While FanDuel is offering one attempt fewer, their price is -128. Because we believe Mayfield will throw a lot no matter how this game goes, take the lower price for one extra attempt.
Caesars is also offering a boost from +155 to +180 on Sunday for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to each finish with 60-plus receiving yards. Be sure to use our Caesars promo code. Offer excludes Ontario.
Baker Mayfield player prop picks made 1/20/2024 at 12:31 p.m. ET.
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