Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together their NFL Divisional Round expert picks based on the best NFL odds.
The NFL postseason delivered one heck of an opening salvo over Wild Card Weekend. And we could be in store for another epic weekend in the Divisional Round.
The action opens Saturday with both top seeds dealing as hefty favorites against red-hot teams with young QBs coming off historic performances. The Baltimore Ravens are looking to exorcise the demons of 2019 against the Houston Texans and rookie sensation C.J. Stroud, while Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love faces his toughest test yet against the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers.
Sunday's slate begins with the Detroit Lions' second home playoff game in three decades, this one coming against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after their blowout win in the wild-card round. Then comes the big one: the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in the third playoff meeting between superstar QBs Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
To accompany our NFL player props and best bets and NFL Divisional Round predictions, here are our NFL Divisional Round expert picks for all four games; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL Divisional Round expert picks
| Andrew Brennan | Shane Jackson | C Jackson Cowart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans vs. Ravens | Devin Singletary Over 56.5 rushing yards (-113 via BetRivers) ??? | Houston Texans +6.5 first half (+105 via Caesars) ????? | Gus Edwards Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-120 via DraftKings) ???? |
| Packers vs. 49ers | Dontayvion Wicks Under 36.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ??? | Packers +9.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ???? | Brock Purdy Under 30.5 pass attempts (-108 via BetRivers) ???? |
| Buccaneers vs. Lions | Rachaad White Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetRivers) ???? | Rachaad White Under 15.5 rushing attempts (-110 via DraftKings) ??? | Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (+108 via BetRivers) ????? |
| Chiefs vs. Bills | James Cook Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ??? | Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 4.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ??? | Josh Allen anyti me TD scorer (-105 via Caesars) ????? |
| Super Bowl pick | Buffalo Bills (+500 via Caesars) | Buffalo Bills (+500 via BetMGM) | Baltimore Ravens (+290 via Caesars) |
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Top NFL Divisional Round picks
You have your choice of the Over on either Rachaad White's receiving yards or receptions, with BetRivers providing the best number on both.
One of my favorite bets on Wild Card Weekend was White Under 3.5 receptions at +125 via BetMGM. We're going back to the well with White, but this time, it's a couple of Overs showing great value.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' divisional-round game against the Detroit Lions features the second-highest total of the week, and the data suggests White will be much more involved in the passing attack than he was on Wild Card Weekend when he totaled just one catch for three yards.
Across five projection models, White has average projections of 3.55 receptions and 29.85 receiving yards. When we run those numbers against BetRivers' lines and odds, we're getting roughly 8% positive expected value on Over 3.5 receptions (+128) and 13% +EV on Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115).
I prefer White's yardage prop, as BetRivers' line is two yards shorter than those at the rest of our best sportsbooks and it's showing a higher expected value. However, if you prefer the plus-money odds of his receptions Over, that's also a solid bet.
However, I'd advise you not to parlay the two picks together despite it “making sense.” Because the two props are positively correlated, BetRivers is offering just +140 odds on Over 20.5 receiving yards + Over 3.5 receptions. When you factor in that White could easily go Over one of those numbers and not the other, 12 points of value for two legs vs. one single simply isn 9;t worth it.
Therefore, if you want longer odds, target the receptions. If you want a higher EV, go for the yardage.