The NFL playoffs have four mouth-watering divisional-round matchups on tap for this weekend, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets based on the best NFL odds.
A bit of history was made on Wild Card Weekend, as the Green Bay Packers became the first-ever No. 7 seed to win their first-round playoff game, and Houston Texans quarterback C.J Stroud became the youngest quarterback ever to start and win a playoff game.
This week, the Detroit Lions have already made history as 3.5-point favorites, as it is the most they have ever been favored by in a playoff game in franchise history. A Lions win would give them multiple playoff victories in a single postseason for the first time since 1957.
As part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions, here are our NFL player props, best bets, and NFL picks for the Divisional Round (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Divisional Round
- Justin Tucker Over 7.5 kicking points vs. Texans (-125 via bet365) ????
- Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions vs. Bills (-148 via FanDuel) ????
- Packers-49ers Over 50.5 (-109 via BetRivers) ???
- Lions -6.5 vs. Buccaneers (-108 via DraftKings) ???
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Divisional Round NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
- Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (-6.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
NFL player props for Divisional Round
Future Hall of Famer Justin Tucker has scored 147 points (second among all players) in 17 games this season, good for an average of 8.6 per game. He has scored eight or more points in six of the last seven games, with the only game he did not hit that mark coming in Week 18 against the Pittsburgh Steelers when the team rested many of its starters.
Tucker's floor is arguably the highest among all kickers, as Week 18 was also the only game where he scored fewer than seven points since Week 5 (also against the Steelers).
The Baltimore Ravens face a Texans defense that held them to 110 rushing yards in their Week 1 matchup, and Houston allows 3.5 yards per rush (including the playoffs), which is second-best in the league.
Thus, Baltimore is not likely to go up and down the field and score touchdowns at will, especially in a game with the lowest O/U (43.5) this weekend. Because of that, we expect Tucker to settle for at least two field-goal attempts, and though he has made a lower-than-usual 86.5% of his field goals (32 of 37) this year, we expect him to come up clutch on the biggest stage.
DraftKings charges a slightly higher price of -130 for this same wager, so we are headed to bet365 for the best value.
The Buffalo Bills are dealing with a slew of defensive injuries heading into this week's matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, and most of the concerns are with players who would defend the middle of the field where Travis Kelce operates.
Buffalo's Terrel Bernard (ankle), Taron Johnson (concussion), Taylor Rapp (calf), and Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) are all questionable, and all would likely have lined up opposite Kelce at some point if healthy. Those injuries also do not account for the season-ending injury to Pro Bowl linebacker Matt Milano, who was so vital in manning the middle of the field.
Since Week 12, Kelce and Rashee Rice have combined for 114 receptions and 1,062 receiving yards, while all other Chiefs have combined for 74 receptions and 933 yards. Kelce and Rice have 61% of Kansas City's receptions in that span, and the tight end has quite the postseason track record with 140 catches for 1,619 yards and 16 touchdowns in 19 career playoff games.
We are not willing to back Kelce's anytime touchdown odds, which are as high as +140 at DraftKings, given that he has gone seven straight games without a receiving touchdown (tied for the longest streak of his career). But the Over on his receptions is a confident four-star play, as he has at least five receptions in 11 consecutive playoff games, which is two shy of Julian Edelman's record of 13.
Therefore, we do not mind paying up slightly at FanDuel, at which the -148 odds for Kelce to have six-plus catches are much more appealing than the -157 found at Caesars.
NFL game picks for Divisional Round
The Packers are going to have to pick their poison with how to defend the San Francisco 49ers this weekend, as the NFC's No. 1 offense is one of the most balanced attacks in the league. Per Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz, San Francisco's passing offense is tied for the most explosive of any since 2010, based on PFF's metric of 15-plus yard completions per pass attempt. And even if the forecasted rain or 15-mph winds compromise the passing game somewhat, the 49ers had an NFL-best 74 running plays of 10-plus yards, while Green Bay's defense ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed after first contact (906) and 23rd in yards per rush (4.4), per ESPN's Stephen Holder.
On the other side, Green Bay's offense is just as balanced, ranking second in offensive DVOA since Week 9, and was in the top five in both passing and rushing offense. Jordan Love has led the team to a 7-2 record in the last nine games and completed 70.7% of his passes, averaged 269.1 passing yards, totaled a 21-1 TD-INT ratio, and recorded a 116.6 passer rating in that span.
All of those marks are better than Aaron Rodgers' numbers from 2010 when Green Bay was the NFC's lowest seed and went on to win Super Bowl XLV.
This is also a three-star play, as PFF's George Chahrouri highlighted that this is a matchup of the two quarterbacks with the highest PFF passing grades since Week 10.
This is a sharp line, as all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the O/U of 50.5, but BetRivers is the only shop charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the Over.
This is a mismatch in terms of the two quarterbacks' playoff ATS record, as Baker Mayfield has covered the spread in all three of his postseason starts, while Jared Goff is 2-6 ATS in his playoff career. However, as long as this spread remains under a touchdown, we are willing to back Detroit to cover against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is overvalued after blowing out a Philadelphia Eagles team that was a trainwreck at the end of the season.
The Buccaneers were the worst rushing team to make the playoffs, ranking in the bottom four in rushing offense success rate. Now they face a Lions defense that leads the league in rush defense DVOA, and we do not expect Mayfield to carry the Buccaneers' offense against a high-powered Lions offense if Detroit makes them one-dimensional.
The Buccaneers pressured Jalen Hurts on 20 of his 39 dropbacks, but they pressured Goff on only eight dropbacks in a 20-6 Week 6 loss to the Lions. In addition, Goff has a higher yards-per-attempt average when blitzed versus when he is not, so Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles' aggressive mentality could backfire in this game.
All of our other best sports betting sites charge the standard -110 juice to back Detroit on the point spread, so Lions backers will find slightly better value at FanDuel and DraftKings. We also would not be opposed to parlaying the Lions' moneyline odds with one of the two big favorites (Ravens or 49ers) from Saturday for a solid two-leg moneyline parlay.
NFL best bets made Thursday at 3:49 p.m. ET.
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