Our Nuggets-76ers NBA player props based on the best NBA odds from the best sports betting apps believe we're in store for a great battle between a pair of MVP big men on Tuesday.
Tuesday's slate features just three games, but we should get a much-anticipated battle between the top MVP contenders over the last three years. I say should, because you never know with these teams.
The Philadelphia 76ers' (25-13) Joel Embiid has already missed 10 games due to a deliberate rest plan, while the Denver Nuggets (28-13) listed Nikola Jokic and the rest of the starting lineup as questionable for Tuesday. Excellent trolling, Denver.
But with this game being on the national stage through TNT, we believe both big men will be active and put on a show. Jokic is the current NBA MVP odds favorite after winning the award in two of the last three ye ars, but Embiid appears to be one of his most significant challengers once again following his 2022-23 win.
Here are our best Nuggets vs. 76ers NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. 76ers NBA player props
The 76ers have been savvy with their resting plan for Embiid, as he's missed marquee matchups on the road while usually playing at home. While this game against the Nuggets is on the second night of a back-to-back set, we do expect the reigning MVP to be in action and continue his impressive play during 2023-24.
Embiid's passing progress has been arguably the most impressive development to his offensive game this season. He ranks 22nd in the league while averaging 5.9 assists per contest, but we're getting a discount after consecutive outings with just three dimes. He's still averaging eight potential assists per game over that span, according to the advanced tracking at NBA.com.
Our projections are forecasting that Embiid will finish with closer to six assists on Tuesday, as the Nuggets will likely try to get the ball out of the league scorer leader's hands. With some of our best sports betting apps moving this assist prop to 5.5, we suggest taking anything at -145 or better on Over 4.5 assists while you can.
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If we like Embiid's full-game assist total, there is plenty of reason to also be excited about his first-quarter line of 1.5. You only need to pay -115 odds for the Over at bet365, whereas a shop like DraftKings is charging as much as -120.
Embiid leads the league in minutes per game during the first quarter while usually playing all 12 minutes in the opening period. As a result, he paces the league with a scoring average of 11.1 points in the first frame to g o along with 4.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists.
Not only does Embiid play the entire first quarter, but Jokic will likely sit midway through the opening period. That creates an opportunity for Embiid and the 76ers to really go for it during the non-Jokic minutes, a stretch that could ultimately decide the game.
This is an example of how understanding when stars play can be beneficial when prop betting, both before the game and live. For that reason, we recommend that readers check out Jared Dubin's breakdown of when the best NBA players play in this post on Substack.
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It's tempting to take the plus-money price on Over 11.5 rebounds for Jokic, but that's not how we're betting this game. We project the 76ers to notch a five-point win, as this game means much more to them than the defending champions.
Jokic is always a threat to record a triple-double, but his rebounding has taken a bit of dip lately. He's averaging just 9.1 rebounds per game in January, clearing this mark in just one of his seven contests during the month. Jokic only went Over 11.5 rebounds in four of his last 15 matchups and 12 times across his past 30 games.
The Under on this prop has moved 30 cents at some of our best sportsbooks, including Caesars and bet365. That's why it's important to take the -115 value at DraftKings ahead of tipoff.
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Nuggets-76ers NBA player props made Tuesday at 10:10 a.m. ET.
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