Sunday night will feature a reunion of sorts when the Detroit Lions host the Los Angeles Rams as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend, and our Rams vs. Lions prediction based on the best NFL odds see the road underdogs putting up points and spoiling the Lions' first home playoff game in decades.
Revenge is a dish best served cold, and Jared Goff hopes to deliver a night to remember for the Detroit Lions (12-5) in their first playoff game in seven years and first home playoff game since 1991.
He'll face his former team in the Los Angeles Rams (10-7) and former Lions QB Matthew Stafford, who makes his much-anticipated return to Ford Field as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Goff led the Rams to the Super Bowl in the 2018 season before they jettisoned him a few years later in a deal for Stafford, who led Los Angeles to a championship in his first season at the helm in 2021.
Now those two face off for the second time since the trade, which also marks Stafford's first game in Detroit since the trade that has defined these two franchises in recent years.
As part of our NFL Predictions for Wild Card Weekend and to accompany our Rams vs. Lions NFL player props, here is our best Rams vs. Lions prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Rams vs. Lions prediction for Wild Card Weekend
My favorite wager of Wild Card Weekend was Rams +3.5 (more on that below), but this might be my favorite prop bet of the week, as the mismatch between Stafford and the Lions' secondary is the driving force for my betting interest in Los Angeles on Sunday.
Stafford has been lighting it up all season long, ranking fifth in passing yards per game (264.3) and sixth in QBR (63.7), bu t he's looked like the gunslinger of old down the stretch. Since Week 13, Stafford is averaging 295.2 yards per game through the air while clearing this total in four of five starts, and he's been PFF's top-graded passer over that stretch.
Stafford's uptick in passing volume has directly coincided with the Rams' resurgence over the back half of the season. And I'd expect the 15-year veteran to come out firing against his old team in a matchup that begs for it.
Since a Week 9 bye, Detroit's defense ranks 26th in opponent EPA/play and struggled to contain the best offenses it faced, especially through the air. On the season, the Lions are dead last in air yards allowed (2,735) while ranking second-worst in opponent yards per completion (12.3) and depth of target (9.3).
This group also ranked 30th in percentage of plays resulting in a 15-yard gain (15.6%), which should be music to the ears of Stafford and Co. There's value in betting the Over on Stafford's longest completion (38.5 via BetMGM), but this feels like the safest way to profit on what should be a prolific day through the air for the former Lions star.
See my Sunday NFL player props for more on Stafford.
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Rams vs. Lions best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams +3 | Rams +3 | Rams +3 | Rams +3 | Rams +3 |
| -110 | -104 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
When we gave out this bet earlier this week, I highlighted Rams +3.5 (-120) at bet365. Since then, four of our five best sports betting sites have moved the line in favor of visiting Los Angeles, which has bounced between +3 and +3.5 all week.
The only book that held firm was FanDuel, which was already dealing Rams +3 (-104) and is now the market outlier for those looking to back the road underdogs. With this market so closely aligned across the board, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the most favorable odds and bonuses for NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Rams vs. Lions odds
Rams vs. Lions odds analysis
The Lions opened as 3.5-point favorites to beat the Rams across our best sports betting apps, with DraftKings briefly dealing an opening price of -5. Those odds were quickly g obbled up, and the spread has since settled at -3 with Los Angeles drawing slightly more action as of Thursday.
Our preferred play is on the underdog Rams at +3 (or +3.5 anywhere you can get it), with the best price at that number coming via FanDuel as of Thursday. If you like the Lions, though, you'll want to either bet them at DraftKings, where they're dealing at -3 with -110 odds after sitting at -3.5 for most of the week.
The total is a bit more straightforward, with all five of our best live betting sites dealing 51.5 with four of them offering -110 odds in both directions. If you have the stomach for the Under, DraftKings is offering the best odds by a hair at -108 – a price that hasn't moved all week.
Rams vs. Lions game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: Indoors
Rams-Lions prediction made Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET.
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