The Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (6-10) on Jan. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Inglewood, CA.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this Week 18 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under is 36 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this Week 18 game with 54.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 77.0% confidence.
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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this Week 18 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games (+13.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.70 Units / 14% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 games (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 54% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 8-7 (+0.3 Units / 1.69% ROI).
- Chiefs are 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -12.15% ROI
- Chiefs are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
- Chiefs are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers went 6-10 (-5 Units / -28.17% ROI).
- Chargers are 5-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -31.91% ROI
- Chargers are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
- Chargers are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / 31.25% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs are 7-1 (.875) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 256.3 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 9-2 (.818) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Chargers has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 17 s this season — 3rd-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 15-6 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Chiefs are 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .281.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Chargers are winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of the third quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Chargers are winless (0-4) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since Week 14 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .512.
The Chargers are winless (0-4) since Week 14 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.