The Houston Texans (8-8) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) on Jan. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.
The Colts are betting favorites in this Week 18 matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).
The Texans vs. Colts Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Texans vs. Colts Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this Week 18 game with 53.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 80.7% confidence.
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Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this Week 18 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Davis Mills has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kylen Granson has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+7.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.95 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 45% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans went 8-8 (-0.9 Units / -5.04% ROI).
- Texans are 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 19.68% ROI
- Texans are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Texans are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / ROI
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts went 9-7 (+1.2 Units / 6.76% ROI).
- Colts are 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 22.8% ROI
- Colts are 11-5 when betting the Over for +5.5 Units / 31.25% ROI
- Colts are 5-11 when betting the Under for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 39 s this season — 4th-highest in NFL.
The Texans are winless (0-5) vs top 10 defenses this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.
The Texans are winless (0-9) vs top 10 defenses since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.
The Texans are 1-11 (.083) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .474.
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Colts are 3-4-1 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .725.
The Colts are 4-3 (.571) on the road this season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .434.
The Colts are 1-7-1 (.111) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .478.
The Colts are 7-2 (.778) when not losing a fumble this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .579.