The Boston College Eagles and SMU Mustangs enter the 2023 Fenway Bowl with vastly different resumes ahead of a Thursday bowl battle, and we're analyzing the best ways to bet this tilt with our SMU vs. Boston College prediction for the Fenway Bowl based on the best college football odds.
Following an up-and-down start to the season, SMU (11-2) went on a streak of nine consecutive wins to conclude the campaign. Despite this, they were excluded from the New Year's Six bowls. Instead, they have a consolation matchup against Boston College (6-6) in Thursday's Fenway Bowl, conveniently located a short drive from the Eagles' campus in Chestnut Hill, MA.
Despite having a home-field advantage of sorts, the betting market has not been influenced, as the Mustangs have seen their odds rise to become double-digit favorites in this matchup against their upcoming ACC conference rival.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best SMU vs. Boston College prediction and our college football picks for Thursday's Fenway Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SMU vs. Boston College prediction: Fenway Bowl
Typically, these bowl matchups feature two teams that resemble a shell of themselves after the rush of transfers and opt-outs. That isn't the case with this year's Fenway Bowl – and that's bad news for Thursday's underdogs.
Yes, SMU will be without starting QB Preston Stone, who broke his leg in the team's 59-14 win over Navy on Nov. 25. Yet backup QB Kevin Jennings filled in admirably in the AAC Championship – 266 total yards, 1 TD, 2 INT – to top a talented Tulane team and secure a conference title.
That marked the Mustangs' ninth consecutive win to close the year, which came in mostly dominant fashion. Nine of the team's 11 wins this season came by 12 or more points, and they scored at least 31 points in all eight conference games before the AAC final.
Even without Stone, this is a talented SMU team that rebuilt ahead of 2023 with transfers from big-time programs, and the results were clear to see.
The Mustangs boasted eight players with 300-plus receiving yards and three with 400-plus yards rushing, with all three averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry – a testament to SMU's stout O-line, which also allowed the nation's 13th-fewest sacks (15).
Speaking of which, the Mustangs' defense ranked second in sacks (47) and third in third-down conversion rate (27.1%), and it boasted top-12 marks in scoring defense (17.38 PPG) and total defense (299.5 YPG). There's a reason this team beat everyone not named Oklahoma or TCU , two teams that entered the year ranked in the top 25.
That certainly wasn't the case for Boston College, a school that hasn't been ranked in five years and lost its final three games by a combined 59 points to backslide into the nearby Fenway Bowl.
The Eagles' offense ranked outside the top 60 in scoring (25 PPG) and total offense (382.7 YPG), and their defense was among the nation's worst, allowing 6.4 yards per play while ranking 116th in EPA/play allowed. That coincided with the team losing multiple starters to injury, and their depth will be challenged after a handful of opt-outs ahead of Thursday.
You can make a compelling argument that SMU deserved a spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so this feels like an opportunity for second-year coach Rhett Lashlee to make a statement against an ACC opponent before the Mustangs officially join the conference in 2024.
Most adv anced models have this game as a two-touchdown spread (or worse) based on these' teams resume to this point, so it's no surprise to see the betting market favor SMU even at this price. While the Mustangs are down their starting QB, they have enough talent to overwhelm Boston College in a serious mismatch on paper.
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SMU vs. Boston College best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU -10 | SMU -10.5 | SMU -10 | SMU -10 | SMU -10 |
| -112 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
This line has moved in SMU's favor over recent weeks but has settled into a near-consensus at -10 across our best sports betting sites. The lone exception is FanDuel, which has taken a more aggressive stance at SMU -10.5 entering Thursday.
Three books are dealing the Mustangs as 10-point favorites with -110 juice, and my personal preference among them is BetMGM. That said, I'd recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which book has the best bonus offer available for this wager.
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SMU vs. Boston College odds
SMU vs. Boston College odds analysis
SMU opened as a 8.5-point favorite over Boston College in the 2023 Fenway Bowl, and we've seen strong movement in favor of the Mustangs despite a general lack of key transfers or opt-outs ahead of this one.
In our view, that speaks to the general mismatch in this game, which profiles as a clear blowout on paper. That said, if you like Boston College, you can fetch a decent +10.5 price at FanDuel, which may be a worthwhile play if the weather takes hold of Thursday's matchup.
Speaking of weather, we've already seen this total drop from an opening 50.5 down to a near-consensus 48 across our best sports betting apps. Again, the outlier is FanDuel, which is hanging a total of 48.5 with the Under trading at -115.
Fenway Bowl game info
- When: Thursday, Dec. 28 at 11 a.m. ET
- Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA< /li>
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 46 degrees, 12-mph winds, 45% chance of precipitation
SMU-Boston College prediction made Tuesday at 2:05 p.m. ET.
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