NFL Betting Recap For Week 15
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 16 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 17 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!
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NFL Betting Recap For Week 16
In part one of this article, I provide observations from week 16. In part two, I look at what awaits a handful of NFL teams as they enter the final two weeks of the season.
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NFL Week 16 Recap
The line for Tampa hosting Jacksonville was Tampa even or -1 during the time Trevor Lawrence was not certain to start at QB. Once cleared, Jacksonville became the favorite, and closed at -2.5 before kickoff. Based on my Power Numbers, that was an overcompensated move.
This was not the first time a line moved beyond what was reasonable due to QB news. My ratings showed Tampa -1 if Lawrence played. This was also not the first time Lawrence was questionable, and clearly, he was not 100% healthy. Be careful with line moves involving a QB who is not likely to be at full strength.
I know I sound like a broken record, but for the fifth game in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs faced a team with a positive rest differential. This affects game planning for both sides, and one could see that Mahomes and the Chiefs were not at their best.
As I've said, it's not just who you play, but WHEN you play. The NFL dealt the Chiefs an unreasonable stretch of games, and yet I saw too many handicappers ignore the extra challenges they have had to face. Coupled with the fact that this team is not as good as recent editions, it's an opportunity lost for people who do not understand how to do proper schedule analysis.
Not all QB changes work out, but two in particular caught my eye this week.
- Mason Rudolph took over for Mitchell Trubisky in Pittsburgh, completing 17 passes for 290 yards and two TD's.
- Taylor Heinecke replaced Desmond Ridder and his stat line was 23-33 for 229 yards, a TD, and one sack taken.
What I liked was the trust both staffs had in these QB's. Rudolph was allowed to throw deeper routes, and was ahead of the chains much of the game. The fact that run-oriented Atlanta allowed Heinecke to even attempt 33 passes showed the lack of confidence they had in Ridder.
Maybe for both of them it becomes just a one-week spike, but in my opinion both Rudolph and Heinecke seemed to be better options than the QB's they replaced.
I wrote in this spot a week ago that Denver was exposed at Detroit. Yes, New England is an underachieving team, but there is no universe where they should have been bet up to -7, let alone -7.5.