The New Orleans Saints (4-10) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5) on Dec. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this Week 17 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Saints vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 17 game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 59.7% confidence.
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Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this Week 17 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Chris Godwin has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Russell Gage has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Chris Godwin has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints went 4-10 (-6.85 Units / -41.77% ROI).
- Saints are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -15.19% ROI
- Saints are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6.05 Units / -36.56% ROI
- Saints are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers went 10-5 (+4.65 Units / 28.62% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 16.86% ROI
- Buccaneers are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Buccaneers are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints are winless (0-4) vs top 10 pass offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Saints are 2-1 (.667) vs top 10 defenses this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Saints are 3-7 (.300) when not forcing a fumble this season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.
The Saints are 2-6 (.250) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .360.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .591.
The Buccaneers are undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since Week 13 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .491.
The Buccaneers are undefeated (4-0) since Week 13 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers are winless (0-6) when rushing less than 25 times this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .286.