The New England Patriots (4-10) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-9) on Dec. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 17 matchup, with the spread sitting at -12 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.
Bet now on Bills vs Patriots & all NFL games with BetMGM
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 17 game with 87.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 72.2% confidence.
Bet now on Bills vs Patriots and all NFL games with BetMGM
Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this Week 17 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+1.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 4-10 (-6.95 Units / -42.38% ROI).
- Patriots are 4-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -23.28% ROI
- Patriots are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Patriots are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 6-9 (-3.75 Units / -23.08% ROI).
- Bills are 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -8.68% ROI
- Bills are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bills are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / 27.27% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .383.
The Patriots are 5-14 (.263) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2022 season — 8th-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 30 passes since the 2022 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .412.
The Patriots are 1-6 (.143) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .562.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.
The Bills are undefeated (9-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .607.
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when not forcing a turnover since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .266.