The Atlanta Falcons (5-10) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (7-6) on Dec. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago, IL.
The Bears are betting favorites in this Week 17 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Falcons vs. Bears Over/Under is 38 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Bears Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this Week 17 game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 61.6% confidence.
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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this Week 17 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.95 Units / 105% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons went 5-10 (-6.1 Units / -36.64% ROI).
- Falcons are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -15.75% ROI
- Falcons are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Falcons are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears went 7-6 (+0.5 Units / 3.03% ROI).
- Bears are 6-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -6.71% ROI
- Bears are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI
- Bears are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Falcons are 5-2 (.714) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Falcons are 2-7 (.222) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .383.
The Falcons are 2-4 (.333) on the road this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .438.
The Falcons are 4-6 (.400) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .499.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Bears are 3-12 (.200) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Bears are winless (0-7) after a win since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .517.
The Bears are 3-8 (.273) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.
The Bears are 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.