The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Tuesday, December 26, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, HOUSTON, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, SACRAMENTO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, LA CLIPPERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): LA CLIPPERS ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML, CHICAGO ML, MEMPHIS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-SAS
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 103-76 SU but 72-105-1 ATS (40.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/26: FADE SAN ANTONIO vs. Utah
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs UTA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 56-35 SU but 35-55-1 ATS (38.9%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/26: FADE SAN ANTONIO vs. Utah
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs UTA)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 33-12 SU and 29-13-3 ATS (69%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
12/26: WASHINGTON vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs ORL)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/26: FADE ATLANTA at Chicago
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+1.5 at CHI)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-9 SU and 19-7 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/26: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 vs MIN)
* ORLANDO is 9-6 SU and 13-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
12/26: ORLANDO at Washington
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-7.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 75-46 SU and 72-46-3 ATS (61%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (-2.5 at SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 96-22 SU but just 44-72-2 ATS (37.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-12 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 117-89 (56.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 167-114 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-LAC (o/u at 228)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 235-183 (56.2%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ORL-WSH (o/u at 238.5), PLAY UNDER in IND-HOU (o/u at 237.5)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 116-42 SU and 91-65-2 ATS (58.3%).
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-12 vs CHA)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
3. NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 67-50 SU and 69-48 ATS (59%).
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-12 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 152-198 ATS (43.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-88 SU and 42-61-3 ATS (40.8%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+6 vs BKN), FADE CHARLOTTE (+12 at LAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +8 (+2.7), 2. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+3.3), 2. BROOKLYN -6 (+2.1), 3. LA CLIPPERS -12 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +8 (+2.9), 2. DETROIT +6 (+2.0), 3. INDIANA +3 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -12 (+2.7), 2. UTAH -2.5 (+2.4), 3. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-DET OVER 230 (+3.7), 2. UTA-SAS OVER 242 (+1.2), 3. IND-HOU OVER 237.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-CHI UNDER 235.5 (-3.6), 2. SAC-POR UNDER 237 (-3.5), 3. MIN-OKC UNDER 228 (-1.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +8 (+1.4), 2. INDIANA +3 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -6 (+3.4), 2. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+2.9), 3. UTAH -2.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-DET OVER 230 (+3.7), 2. IND-HOU OVER 237.5 (+3.3), 3. MIN-OKC OVER 228 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-3.5), 2. UTA-SAS UNDER 242 (-3.3), 3. SAC-POR UNDER 237 (-2.9)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(513) ATLANTA at (514) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 5-2 ATS in the last seven hosting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS