The Bowling Green Falcons and Minnesota Golden Gophers start a post-Christmas college football tripleheader on Tuesday, and we offer our best Bowling Green vs. Minnesota prediction based on the best college football odds at the best sportsbooks.
Starting the season at 1-3, Bowling Green orchestrated a remarkable reversal of fortune, clinching a crucial victory against ACC contender Georgia Tech that ignited a surge of confidence. Building on this momentum, they embarked on an impressive stretch, winning five of their last six games, earning eligibility for a bowl game.
Notably, their sole loss during this streak was a narrow one-point defeat against Toledo, a team undefeated in MAC play throughout the regular season. This strong finish guarantees Bowling Green its first winning season since their MAC championship triumph in 2015, marking a significant achievement for the team.
Minnesota is the only five-win team (5-7) playing in a bowl game this season, as the Golden Gophers earned a bowl bid because there were not enough eligible six-win teams. Per the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Minnesota earned a bowl bid over all other five-win teams because it had the best Academic Progress Rate (APR).
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Bowling Green vs. Minnesota prediction and our college football picks for Tuesday's Quick Lane Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota prediction: Quick Lane Bowl
One could argue Minnesota does not deserve a bowl bid based on its under .500 record, but the fact is Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck knows a thing or two about winning bowl games, as Minnesota is 4-0 in bowls in his tenure. One of those victori es was in this bowl at Ford Field in 2018, and the Golden Gophers should be plenty motivated in this matchup after losing to Bowling Green 14-10 at home in 2021.
Like many teams this bowl season, the Golden Gophers were hit hard by the transfer portal, as both their starting quarterback (Athan Kaliakmanis) and backup quarterback (Drew Viotto) are transferring. That leaves the quarterbacking duties to Cole Kramer, whose only pass attempt this season resulted in an interception. However, the team will likely not have to rely on his arm much, as Bowling Green's rush defense ranks outside the top 100 in Line Yards, Rush Success, and Stuff Rate. And in a game that projects to be close, special teams could make all the difference, and Minnesota has a decisive edge there, finishing the regular season ranked 19th compared to Bowling Green's 125th ranking in special teams SP+.
Bowling Green has had an opportunistic defense all season and is the only team that ranks in the top six in the country in both fumble recoveries (11) and interceptions (16). However, one of the Falcons cornerbacks with four interceptions on the season, Jalen Huskey, is in the transfer portal. In addition, Minnesota was tied for 36th in turnover margin (+3) on the season, and there should be few opportunities for the Falcons to force turnovers if the Golden Gophers resort to a ground-and-pound game plan. However, this is only a three-star play at the best sportsbooks, as Minnesota has lost and failed to cover the spread in its last four games.
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Bowling Green vs. Minnesota best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| -110 | -102 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
As Minnesota backers, we have our choice of three top college football betting sites offering the lowest number (-3.5) at standard -110 juice. We would pass at any number at -4 or higher, so be sure to shop for the best possible number. We also would consider parlaying Minnesota's moneyline odds at the best sportsbooks (-176 at FanDuel is the best number) with other bowl games this weekend, considering MAC teams have lost nine of their last 10 appearances in the Quick Lane Bowl, including Bowling Green's 24-19 loss to New Mexico State last year.
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Bowling Green vs. Minnesota odds
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota odds analysis
All point spread line movement from the opening number has gone in Bowling Green's favor, as most of our top college football betting sites initially had the Golden Gophers as 5.5-point favorites. DraftKings spiked back up briefly to -4 after hitting a low of -3.5, but the line has remained at -3.5 since the beginning of the week. Fifty-nine percent of the early wagers are on Minnesota despite covering the spread in nine of its 12 games. Bowling Green has an 8-4 ATS record.
Our best sports betting apps are in unison, with an O/U of 39.5 points and standard -110 juice on either side of the total. FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars reached a low of 36.5 in early December, while DraftKings and bet365 never had their totals reach lower than 37 and 38, respectively. The betting splits are i n accordance with that spike in total, as 80% of the wagers have backed the Over.
Quick Lane Bowl game info
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 26 at 2:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
- Weather: Indoors
Bowling Green-Minnesota prediction made 12/23/2023 at 6:38 a.m. ET.
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