The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, December 23, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, INDIANA, BROOKLYN, TORONTO, CHICAGO, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER, PORTLAND, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It was a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BROOKLYN, TORONTO, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER, MEMPHIS, TORONTO
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-NYK, MEM-ATL, UTA-TOR, SAS-DAL, POR-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SAS-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK, ORL-IND
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 103-75 SU but 71-105-1 ATS (40.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/23: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+8 vs DEN)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 43-35 SU but 29-49 ATS (37.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/23: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+8 vs DEN)
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 26-17 SU and 26-17 ATS (60.5%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
12/23: ATLANTA vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+1.5 vs MEM)
12/23: TORONTO vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-5.5 vs UTA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 25-16 SU but 18-22-1 ATS (45%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/23: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Denver
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+8 vs DEN)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 32-27 SU and 32-26-1 ATS (55.2%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/23: BROOKLYN vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-9.5 vs DET)
12/23: GOLDEN STATE vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs POR)
12/23: SACRAMENTO vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs MIN)
* Under the total was 71-41 (63.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/23: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233)
12/23: UNDER the total in CHICAGO-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217)
12/23: UNDER the total in SACRAMENTO-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232.5)
* Under the total was 32-36 (55.2%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/23: UNDER the total in DETROIT-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233)
12/23: UNDER the total in PORTLAND-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233)
12/23: UNDER the total in MINNESOTA-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232.5)
* Over the total was 32-24 (57.1%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/23: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* Over the total was 21-13 (60.6%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
12/23: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-DENVER
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)
* Over the total was 22-12 (63.6%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
12/23: OVER the total in TORONTO-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 18-30 SU and 15-32 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
12/23: FADE ATLANTA vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+1.5 vs MEM)
* ATLANTA was 28-8 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
12/23: OVER the total in MEMPHIS-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240.5)
* BROOKLYN is 22-9 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/23: UNDER the total in DETROIT-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233)
* BROOKLYN was 16-6 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
12/23: UNDER the total in DETROIT-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217)
* GOLDEN STATE is 38-12 SU and 30-17 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
12/23: GOLDEN STATE vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs POR)
* HOUSTON is 28-9 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
12/23: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* INDIANA is 54-30 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
12/23: OVER the total in INDIANA-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 244)
* MINNESOTA is 16-3 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
12/23: OVER the total in SACRAMENTO-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-8 SU and 19-6 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/23: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs LAL)
* SAN ANTONIO was 2-16 SU and 4-14 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
12/23: FADE SAN ANTONIO at Dallas
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+7 at DAL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 56-18 SU and 50-23-1 ATS (68.5%).
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1.5 at ATL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 117-88 (57.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 167-114 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-BKN (*only if BKN becomes a double-digit favorite, -9.5 as of writing)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 195-199 SU and 165-219-10 ATS (43%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-1.5 at LAC), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-4 vs LAL)
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 234-183 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-NYK (o/u at 243.5)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 173-192 SU and 157-206-2 ATS (43.3%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-1.5 at LAC)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 190-189 SU and 165-202-12 ATS (45%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-1.5 at LAC)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 101-70 SU and 102-67-2 ATS (60.4%).
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+6.5 at NOP)
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 115-42 SU and 90-65-2 ATS (58.1%).
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-1.5 at LAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 75-14 SU but 35-52-3 ATS (40.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE (*only if they become double-digit favorites vs POR, -9 as of writing)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 46-41 SU and 49-36-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (-9.5 vs DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 152-196 ATS (43.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-87 SU & 42-60-3 ATS (41.2%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+9.5 at BKN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +1.5 (+4.1), 2. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+2.9), 3. HOUSTON +6.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+6.2), 2. DENVER -8 (+5.7), 3. TORONTO -5.5 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ATLANTA +1.5 (+2.3) and MINNESOTA +2.5 (+2.3), 3. HOUSTON +6.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+7.2), 2. DENVER -8 (+4.1), 3. BROOKLYN -9.5 (+4.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-CHA OVER 226.5 (+3.8), 2. MIN-SAC OVER 232.5 (+3.2), 3. ORL-IND OVER 244 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-TOR UNDER 231 (-5.2), 2. MEM-ATL UNDER 240.5 (-4.8), 3. LAL-OKC UNDER 240 (-4.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +1.5 (+5.3), 2. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+2.0), 3. HOUSTON +6.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+4.9), 2. DENVER -8 (+4.4), 3. TORONTO -5.5 (+3.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-CHA OVER 226.5 (+2.6), 2. MIN-SAC OVER 232.5 (+2.1), 3. ORL-IND OVER 244 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-TOR UNDER 231 (-5.8), 2. LAL-OKC UNDER 240 (-5.4), 3. MEM-ATL UNDER 240.5 (-4.6)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) BOSTON at (532) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 11-0-1 ATS in the last 12 of the BOS-LAC series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(545) CLEVELAND at (546) CHICAGO
* Home teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the CLE-CHI series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(535) DENVER at (536) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the DEN-CHA series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(539) DETROIT at (540) BROOKLYN
* The last five games of the DET-BRK series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(537) HOUSTON at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last five ATS hosting Houston
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS