Week 16 picks from a “dog or pass” point of view”
It wasn’t too long ago that we were enjoying a pretty successful NFL season; in fact, I remember feeling very thankful at Thanksgiving.
Even though we were only right around .500 with our posted plays here in our columns, there were several instances where I know most readers/followers were able to turn losses into pushes or pushes into wins with sharp line-shopping, plus our teaser portfolio often bailed us out as well. However, the month of December hasn’t been as good for underdog bettors like yours truly, as I’ve only gone 6-14-1 ATS (a woeful 30%) since Thanksgiving morning. Again, correctly timing our bets and line-shopping has helped, but only helped to cut losses.
In NFL Week 15, I went 1-3-1 ATS with the push coming in the Vikings’ 27-24 OT loss at the Bengals (very much a bad beat, well, bad push, I guess, is more accurate) and the lone win on the Buccaneers +3.5 in their 34-20 upset at the Packers. The losses were on the Broncos +4 at the Lions, Giants +6 at the Saints, and Jaguars +3.5 vs. the Ravens, and none of the trio were really close to covering.
We did have one unofficial winner that wasn’t included in the above records since it wasn’t an official play) on the Bears, if they got to +3.5, so hopefully, some readers were able to grab that in their 20-17 loss at the Browns. That’s always been the point of these columns to provide a roadmap while navigating the weekly NFL schedule.
I also lost my main 2-team, 6-point teaser of the weekend on the Steelers +7.5/Cowboys +8 as both legs lost. Hopefully plenty of you joined me with my chalky teaser early Sunday on the Dolphins -1.5/Chiefs -2 as that won to again help cut some losses.
Let’s get to this week’s full 16-game card. It’s going to be quite an adventure betting/following all these games in the middle of holiday celebrations. We have the usual Thursday nighter to kick off the weekend action, then two games on Saturday, the bulk of the Week 16 schedule with 10 games on Sunday/Christmas Eve, and then a Christmas Day tripleheader. I certainly didn’t plan it this way, but I have one underdog I like on Thursday and Saturday, only two on Sunday’s bigger slate of games, and then like all three dogs on Christmas. We’ll see how it goes.
For newcomers to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Not long ago, this Thursday nighter didn’t look too appealing, but now both teams are 7-7 and in the midst of the NFC wild-card race, while the Saints are also tied for the NFC South lead with the Buccaneers. The Rams have won four of their last five games, with the only loss being the 37-31 OT loss at the Ravens in Week 14, so we understand why they’re favored at home here, but we like the Saints getting more than a field goal in a game we feel should be closer to pick ’em. While the Rams’ offense has been more consistent, the Saints have the better defense, and we really like them against pocket-passers like Matthew Stafford. Let’s call for the outright upset to kick off the holiday weekend.
Best Bet: Saints +4 (pool play: Saints in all my rare ATS contests that use TNF and 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
When the schedule makers put this as Saturday afternoon’s game, they certainly weren’t expecting Jake Browning vs. Mason Rudolph. Yet, here we are with the Bengals and Steelers having mediocre seasons at 8-6 and 7-7, respectively, but both trying to stay in the AFC wild-card conversation.
This game is pretty much a coin-flip – shown by the fact the Steelers were -1.5 on the advance line last week and now it’s flipped but still under a field goal. But this keeps it in the “teaser zone,” so we can move the Steelers up over a TD. This is a good spot to lay out our 2-team, 6-point teaser portfolio as we’ll use this game to hopefully connect to the Texans +8.5 vs. Browns and Titans +8.5 vs. the Seahawks in the early Sunday games, as well as the Cowboys +7.5 at the Dolphins in their marquee afternoon matchup.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Steelers +8.5/Texans +8.5 among other teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 60/40 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-12) at Los Angeles Chargers
We keep mentioning the schedule makers on this Week 16 slate, but it’s obviously this was expected to be one of the biggest matchups of the weekend on Saturday night in prime time (the Bills were just 1-point road favorites when the scheduled was announced on May 11), but here we are with the Bills as a double-digit road favorite.
However, we see it as an opportunity as the line has become so inflated that it was still only Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week. Yes, we know the Chargers never looked worse than their 63-21 loss at the Raiders last Thursday, while the Bills are finally back on track with their 20-17 win at the Chiefs and 31-10 rout vs. the Cowboys the past two weeks, but this line is still too much of an overadjustment for us to pass up.
Best Bet: Chargers (pool play: Chargers 75/25 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
This is the first of six games on the early Sunday schedule (probably the best thing about this long weekend schedule is we don’t have nine or so early Sunday games like we get most of the season and can really follow all the action across the league). The Colts (8-6) are in a better playoff position than the Falcons (6-8), but Atlanta is also only one game behind the Buccaneers and Saints in the NFC South so it’s important for both teams even though it’s an interconference matchup. This game has also flip-flopped faves with Falcons -1 at deadline on Wednesday, with Taylor Heinicke now starting for Atlanta. I would consider the Colts in a teaser if the line goes to 1.5, and we can move the line fullying over a TD to +7.5.