The early bird gets the worm!
We're back for our first full season of “Early Birds” after starting this project 4 weeks into last year. As a quick refresher, the goal of this column is to highlight possible overreactions in the market for NFL lines at the reopening stage.
So what's a “reopening line” you ask? Well, every week the sportsbooks will offer lookahead lines for the following week, meaning you could have bet on Week 2 and beyond before the Week 1 games even took place. These lookahead lines are a crucial measuring stick for sportsbooks and sharp bettors as ratings adjust and evolve for each team throughout the season.
On game day, the entire lookahead market will close as action ensues, only to reopen again later that night or early Monday morning after the dust settles. The first and perhaps most important part of my process each week is comparing these “reopening lines” to the lookahead lines. Analyzing this market successfully can help provide a treasure trove of value by not only determining which way the market could move, but also when is the best time to buy.