The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, December 15, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS, LA LAKERS, ATLANTA, HOUSTON
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-CHA, ATL-TOR, HOU-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-WSH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: In NBA games with extremely low totals last season, or those less than 214, majority handle bettors were 9-22 (29%), whole majority number of bets groups were even worse at 7-24 (22.6%).
System Matches (FADE THE UNDER): HOU-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): IND-WSH
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 58-38 SU and 63-31 ATS (67%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
12/15: ORLANDO vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+6 at BOS)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS (100%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
12/15: ORLANDO vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+6 at BOS)
* Under the total was 69-37 (65%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/15: Under the total in PHOENIX-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 45-15 SU and 36-23 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/15: MEMPHIS vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+3.5 vs HOU)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 107-28 SU and 89-46 ATS (65.9%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-6 vs ORL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-54 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 165-109 (60.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-PHI (o/u at 235)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 189-192 SU and 159-212-10 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7 at CHA)
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 233-181 (56.3%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in HOU-MEM (o/u at 212)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 167-188 SU and 152-201-2 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-2 vs ATL)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 100-69 SU and 101-66-2 ATS (60.5%).
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+6 at BOS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 22-46 SU but 37-31 ATS (54.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER DETROIT ATS (+16 at PHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 73-13 SU but 34-50-3 ATS (40.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS (-16 vs DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 43-40 SU and 46-35-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs IND), PLAY ATLANTA (+2 at TOR)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 147-192 ATS (43.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-84 SU and 41-58-3 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+16 at PHI), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs LAL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +5 (+0.6), 2. WASHINGTON +8.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+3.0), 2. PHILADELPHIA -16 (+1.8), 3. HOUSTON -3.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+0.9), 2. ORLANDO +6 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -2 (+2.3), 2. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+1.9), 3. INDIANA -8.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). IND-WSH OVER 259 (+2.3) and NOP-CHA OVER 231.5 (+2.3), 3. LAL-SAS OVER 234 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHX UNDER 232.5 (-1.9), 2. ORL-BOS UNDER 224.5 (-1.6), 3. DET-PHI UNDER 235 (-0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+2.9), 2. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+2.4), 3. PHILADELPHIA -16 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-BOS OVER 224.5 (+1.2), 2. NOP-CHA OVER 231.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHX UNDER 232.5 (-6.3), 2. ATL-TOR UNDER 241.5 (-4.7), 3. DET-PHI UNDER 235 (-2.6)