We're looking to rebound from going 2-4 on our Week 14 NFL player props, and we started by going 1-1 on Thursday Night Football while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.
We got off to a rough start last week with a 2-4 record on our Week 14 NFL player props, which might have looked different if not for a first-half QB injury and a penalty negating a goal-to-go touchdown (rolls eyes dramatically).
Thursday Night Football started us off with a 1-1 mark for the Week 15 slate as the Las Vegas Raiders trounced the Los Angeles Chargers.
The opening Saturday games of the 2023 NFL season highlight matchups with backup quarterbacks at the forefront, showcasing their skills in two clashes. Furthermore, the Detroit Lions, seeking to reverse their season's fortunes, confront the challenge of playing against the momentum-gaining Denver Bronco s in a prime-time matchup. This allows them to reassert their strength and secure a pivotal win.
A crucial matchup on Sunday Night Football between the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars caps off Sunday's schedule. Both teams are still vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they can survive Week 15.
And, finally, the Philadelphia Eagles try to stay alive in their hunt for the NFC's top seed when they travel to face the floundering Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 15 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 15
- Ty Chandler Over 58.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ????
- Michael Mayer longest reception Over 11.5 yards (-120 via DraftKings) ?????
- Easton Stick Over 19.5 rushing yards (-120 via bet365) ????
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NFL player props for Week 14: Saturday
The Minnesota Vikings are running out of running backs, having already lost Cam Akers (Achilles) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) entering Week 15. That said, Chandler might quietly be the best of the three, and he'll have plenty of chances to prove it on Saturday.
After Mattison went down in Week 14, Chandler accounted for nine of Minnesota's 12 running back carries to finish with 12 overall. It was his third game with double-digit carries over the last four weeks, and he's averaged 51 yards in those games even as he split carries with Mattison.
Chandler won't lack for opportunity on Saturday, especially with QB Nick Mullens making his first start of th e year. In limited action last week, Mullens completed nine of 13 passes for 83 yards, but his bad-throw percentage (30.8%) ranks second-worst by any passer this season.
This is also a favorable matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (127.2) and 30th in yards per attempt (4.7). Combine that with a healthy volume, and Chandler should clear this total on Saturday.
NFL player props for Week 14: Thursday Night Football
If you followed our NFL player props last week, you may shudder at the sight of another “longest play” prop, and that's OK. Me too. Still, I simply couldn't ignore this bet given the favorable matchup Mayer is facing.
The Chargers have allowed an opposing tight end to record at least one reception of 12-plus yards in eight of nine games since these teams last met in Week 4. That includes Week 14, when second-year tig ht end Lucas Krull – who has spent all season on the Denver Broncos' practice squad – was left wide open for a 35-yard grab, the first catch of his career.
Mayer has cleared this mark in six of his last nine contests (which doesn't include an 11-yard catch in Week 7), and he faces a defense that ranks fifth-worst in receptions (74) and receiving yards (784) allowed to opposing tight ends. He should get loose for at least one chunk play on Thursday.
Our Esten McLaren has more on Mayer with his anytime touchdown scorer prediction for TNF.
My favorite Chargers bet this week was originally Over 5.5 receptions for Keenan Allen, who has since been ruled out of the game. And I don't trust any of the Bolts' other pass-catchers – including Austin Ekeler, whose receptions total has been jacked up to 4.5 (a number he still might cash), even with concerns about his playing time.
Instead, I'm backing Los Angeles' fill-in quarterback and trusting his legs during Stick's first pro start since getting drafted way back in 2019.
Stick may sound like a CPU-generated player in Madden, but he made quite the name for himself at North Dakota State, where the signal-caller ended his career as the winningest QB in FCS history (49-3). While he set school records in passing yards (8,693) and touchdowns (88), he was also prolific on the ground. Stick established the Missouri Valley record for quarterback rushing yards (2,523) and rushing touchdowns (41).
We didn't see Stick take off in limited action during Week 14, but he averaged 45.9 rushing yards across 55 games in college. He even showed off the jets during the preseason, averaging 15.3 rushing yards per game despite playing a quarter or two on average.
Those stats don't mean he'll cash this Over, but I'd imagine the Chargers will try to make Stick comfortable while shifting the pocket and freeing up easier throws on the move. That's especially wise against a Raiders defense with one elite pass-rusher (Maxx Crosby), but a middling group otherwise.
Especially on a short week, we should be able to count on Stick getting creative on his own beyond any called runs that Kellen Moore might draw up. I also bet Stick to score an anytime TD at +1100, and while the market has caught onto that play as kickoff nears, I'd still play it small at +550 via BetMGM.
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