We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Friday, based on the best NBA odds.
We went 3-1 in Thursday's picks, so let's finish the week on a high note. Tonight's eight-game slate features some exploitable matchups, particularly for big men. We have three centers and a star point guard all ready to go Over on their PRA (points, rebounds, and assists) props.
The Philadelphia 76ers host the Detroit Pistons, who are headed toward infamy with their historically poor play and franchise-record 21 straight losses. The Indiana Pacers visit the Washington Wizards, where Tyrese Haliburton will look to get back on track in a favorable spot. The New Orleans Pelicans take on the Charlotte Hornets, and the Pels may be without Zion Williamson for a second straight game.
Finally, the Los Angeles Lakers will look for a second straight win over th e San Antonio Spurs after the Spurs' late rally fell short in Wednesday's loss.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Detroit Pistons (+16.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- Indiana Pacers (-9) vs. Washington Wizards
- Orlando Magic (+6) vs. Boston Celtics
- Atlanta Hawks (+2) vs. Toronto Raptors
- Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Houston Rockets (-4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- New York Knicks (+5) vs. Phoenix Suns
Friday's NBA best bets
- Joel Embiid Over 52.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Pistons (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 45.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Wizards (-104 via FanDuel) ????
- Jonas Valanciunas Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Hornets (-120 via DraftKings) ???
- Victor Wembanyama Over 36.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Lakers (-105 via DraftKings) ????
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Friday's NBA player props
Embiid has been monstrously productive this season, delivering huge stat lines each game, including his 41-point, 11-rebound, five-assist performance against the Pistons on Wednesday. Embiid has gone for at least 53 PRA in three of his last four and four of his last six overall. He's eclipsed that ma rk in nine games on the season and provided four more games with at least 50 PRA. He's averaging 51.7 PRA in 2023-24, including 52.8 at home.
Detroit's frontcourt defense was already lacking, but with Jalen Duren out of action, the Pistons have been a favorable matchup to opposing big men. Detroit ranks sixth in points in the paint allowed on the season, but the team has given up the third-most points in the paint over the last three. Detroit ranks in the top-12 in most points and most rebounds surrendered during that span as well.
Embiid should have no problem dominating Detroit here. The 76ers are 16.5-point favorites, but Embiid has done a ton of damage through three quarters for much of the season and scored 30 points against the Pistons in Tuesday's matchup.
What happens when the two fastest-paced teams and two most generous defenses get together? A lot of points get scored! Indiana and Washi ngton have allowed more points and played at a faster pace than every other team in the Association this season. Haliburton should have no shortage of opportunities to score, rebound, and facilitate in Friday's showdown in the nation's capital.
Haliburton was incredible in the Pacers' first two In-Season Tournament games and the five games prior, averaging 49.4 PRA across those seven contests. He fell back to earth in the NBA Cup Final, and in two games since that loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, he's averaged just 34 PRA.
Tonight's matchup with Washington is a great get-right game. He posted 20/3/11 against the Wizards the first time they played. But that game was in Indiana, it was a blowout, and Haliburton saw only 27 minutes. His PRA splits are significant, as he averages 46.4 on the road compared to just 39.5 at home.
Much like Embiid, Valanciunas gets a great matchup against a team al ready ranked in the top-10 in most points in the paint and most rebounds allowed but missing their starting center. Mark Williams is likely to sit this one out, and while Nick Richards has been a competent backup, Valanciunas should be able to cash this PRA prop against a shorthanded Charlotte frontcourt.
Valanciunas has posted at least 30 PRA in two straight and three of his last six overall. He dominated Washington with 16 points, 18 boards, and three assists on Wednesday, taking advantage of a favorable matchup and absorbing extra scoring and rebounding responsibilities with Zion Williamson out of action. Williamson is questionable again Friday, and his absence would be big for JV. In games played with Zion this season, Valanciunas has averaged 24.5 PRA compared to 29.8 when Zion sits.
We're going Over for one more prop tonight, and this time, it's the otherworldly rookie down in San Antonio. Greg Popovich shifted Wemby to ce nter three games ago, moving Zach Collins to the bench, and the results have been very favorable for Wembanyama. He has averaged 22/17/3 over his last three and cashed this prop in two of those contests, going for 36 PRA in the third.
Collins averaged 6.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists across 29.1 minutes as a starter, but since coming off the bench, he's averaged just 5.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists across 18.7 minutes. Wemby delivered his second 30-point game of the season in the loss to Los Angeles on Wednesday, showcasing his ability to score at all three levels and compete for rebounds against bigger and stronger opponents like Anthony Davis. He'll look to stay dominant on Friday in the rematch.
NBA best bets made 12/15/2023 at 7:25 a.m. ET
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