When I last left off with you on my College Football Best Bets, I had a nice run on Conference Conference Championship week to go 5-2. We now move into bowl season, and here are my opinions on some of the early games.
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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2023
Jacksonville State vs. LA Lafayette
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl- Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Jacksonville State played its first full season of FBS football this year and won eight games behind one of the nation’s best rushing attacks. Most prognosticators had the Gamecocks projected to be at or near the bottom of Conference USA at the outset of the season. Not only is this team playing like it belongs in FBS, but it’s also been assigned an opponent in the New Orleans Bowl that is on a downward trend, and at 6-6, probably doesn’t care nearly as much about the game in Louisiana-Lafayette.
ULL has struggled in bowl games lately, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six, and it can be easily argued that those were better teams. JSU also made my hot list for the bowl season while going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. I am intrigued as well by the coaching experience difference here as JSU head coach Rich Rodriguez has coached in 11 prior bowl games while ULL’s Michael Desormeaux has only coached one. In bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 37-20 SU and 39-17-1 ATS (69.6%).
Finally, looking at the huge line move in this game towards JSU, in bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
Let’s lay the 3.5 points with Jacksonville State (+/1)
Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl – Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
I really felt like I had enough reasons to back Miami (OH) as the underdog in the Cure Bowl against Appalachian State, but I’m worried about the RedHawks’ offensive production without QB Aveon Smith in the lineup. He took over for Brett Gabbert after injury, but he is also on to the transfer portal now.
One thing I do believe I can count on is the Miami (OH) defense, as that unit allowed just 16.2 PPG this season. They will need to be extra sharp to keep their team in the game. Head coach Chuck Martin has seen his team go Under the total in its last four bowl games too.
I think bettors are thinking along the same lines as me, as nearly 80% of the handle at DraftKings was on the Under as I wrote this. The total has moved from 51.5 at opening to 45.5 currently. Regardless of the reason, bettors have been right at a 75-56-1 (57.3%) rate on totals moving 4.5 points or more since I first started studying bowl games in 1992. In the 2022-23 bowl season, bettors drove the totals off their opening numbers by 4.5 points or more in 11 games, going 7-4.
Let’s go UNDER 45.5 in Miami (OH)-Appalachian State
UCLA vs. Boise State
Starco Brandos LA Bowl Presented by Stifel – SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Some late line movement this week has me really considering UCLA now in the LA Bowl matchup against Boise State. Not only are the Bruins playing what could almost be considered an enhanced bowl game in their home city at a better stadium, but I believe they have the defense to shut down Boise State in this game.
The Bruins were stout against the run all season in a loaded Pac-12, allowing just 67.8 RYPG and 2.4 YPR. They held Cal’s potent ground game to just 124 yards in the season finale. I think that aspect alone makes this a tough matchup for the Broncos.
Plus, this is one of a handful of games where we have the coaching experience differential fitting into a nice line range system, with Chip Kelly having five bowl games under his belt and Spencer Danielson coaching #1: It is in games that are expected to be tight that the coaching difference really stands out, as first-time bowl coaches are just 14-24 SU and 12-24-2 ATS (33.3%) over the last eight seasons in games with lines in the +4.5 to -4.5 range. I think this is sort of against the grain, but I like UCLA here and expect Kelly’s team to play much better than it did in its bowl game last year.
Let’s lay the 4 points with UCLA (+/- 0.5)
California vs. Texas Tech
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl – Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
There are only four bowl teams that allowed more points than Cal this season and only three teams in the country that allowed more passing yards per game. That makes them immediately susceptible to getting routed in a bowl game if you ask me.
Texas Tech was a little off this season, but I recall being very impressed by the job head coach Joey McGuire did in getting his team ready for the bowl game last year versus Ole Miss. The Red Raiders really came to play. This Independence Bowl matchup also boasts some nice trends from recent years. First, favorites own a 10-6 ATS edge in the last 16 Independence Bowl games. Second, regarding conference bowl trends, prior to the 2015 bowl season, Pac-12 teams playing as underdogs in bowl games were very rare. Lately, and for good reason, the regularity has ramped up.
That hasn’t been good news for the league, as Pac-12 teams are on a slide of 3-19 SU and 7-15 ATS as dogs. They’ve also struggled against the Big 12, as Big 12 teams haven’t lost back-to-back ATS bowl games vs. the Pac 12 since 2002, going 25-12 SU and 23-14 ATS since. In a battle of 6-6 teams, in the end, I just think Texas Tech is better.