The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet at Arrowhead Stadium for the fifth time since 2020, and we offer our best Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props for Week 14 based on the best NFL odds.
Buffalo (6-6) had a bye week to stew over what went wrong in a 37-34 Week 12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, a game in which it outgained the Eagles 505-378, had five more first downs, won the turnover battle (2-1), and held the ball for nearly 14 minutes longer. Following the bye, the Bills have a 21% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics.
Kansas City (8-4) is coming off a 27-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. The good news for the Chiefs is that they are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games following a loss.
To accompany our Week 14 predictions, here are our best Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props for Week 14 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence bas ed on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props: Week 14
It is no surprise that we are getting plus-money odds backing the Under on Josh Allen's passing touchdowns, considering he has thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of the five head-to-head meetings with Kansas City since 2020, and has three or more passing touchdowns in three straight. And in two games with Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, Allen has a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and has averaged 307 yards per game.
However, the Bills' designed rush percentage has increased from 36% to 43% under Brady. In addition, Allen is under center 29% of the time (compared to 26% with Ken Dorsey calling plays this season), so we expect Buffalo to build upon its 173-rushing yard performance (its third-most rushing yards of the season) and attack the Chiefs more on the ground when it gets in close.
This is a three-star pla y, as Allen was the team's leading rusher last week and scored two rushing touchdowns, and we expect Brady to build upon that success and utilize Allen's legs again this week, especially in the red zone.
Caesars offers -101 odds to back the Under, so be sure to seek out the plus-money odds at many of our best sports betting apps.
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Doubling down on our idea that the Bills will commit to the run more, we find great value in James Cook's anytime touchdown scorer odds. Cook has gone eight consecutive games without a rushing touchdown, but he has added two receiving touchdowns over the last six games and faces a Chiefs def ense that has allowed rushing touchdowns to six different players this season.
Kansas City entered last week against Green Bay ranked in the bottom 11 in explosive run rate allowed and the bottom four in yards after contact per attempt allowed. The Chiefs then allowed 129 rushing yards to the Packers and 5.2 yards per rush, and they now rank 28th in the league in yards per rush allowed (4.6). Meanwhile, Buffalo's 40 rushing attempts last week were a season-high, and it had seven rushes of 10-plus yards. And if the Bills have as much success off play-action as the Packers did last week (144 yards off play-action were their second-most in a game this season), that should open up running lanes for Cook if Kansas City is more concerned with limiting big passing plays.
The +175 odds at FanDuel are a great value considering Cook's anytime touchdown odds are as low as +130 at DraftKings.
Kansas City seemingly gets little production from its wide receivers each week, and last week was no exception, as the Chiefs' wide receivers combined for 106 receiving yards, their third-lowest total of the season. It did not help that Patrick Mahomes was off-target on a season-worst 26% of his passes, but he should be more comfortable at home this week, and we expect head coach Andy Reid to devise ways to get his best receiving option involved in a game of this magnitude.
Kelce scored 12.1 fantasy points last week, which ranked sixth among tight ends, and he has been a top-12 tight end in just two of the last six weeks, with one receiving touchdown over the previous five. However, he has destroyed Sean McDermott's heavy zone coverage scheme, averaging eight catches per game in the last five meetings, with double-digit targets in three of them.
Considering the Chiefs have nearly as many games with scoring fewer than 20 points this season (five ) as they did from 2019 to 2022 (six), we are lower on Kelce's receiving yards or anytime touchdown scorer odds. But the +100 odds that BetMGM and DraftKings are offering for him to have seven-plus catches is worthy of a four-star play, and is great value with the Over juiced as high as -114 at FanDuel.
Bills vs. Chiefs player props made 12/7/2023 at 6:22 a.m. ET
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