VSiN Analytics Report for Week 14
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, NEW ORLEANS, MIAMI, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, DETROIT, NEW ORLEANS, KANSAS CITY, DENVER, MIAMI, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, ATLANTA, NEW ORLEANS, SAN FRANCISCO, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, NEW ORLEANS, SAN FRANCISCO, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority handle and the number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) and 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, INDIANAPOLIS, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the HANDLE has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-PIT, HOU-NYJ, LAR-BAL, JAX-CLE, DET-CHI, CAR-NO, DEN-LAC, GB-NYG
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-ATL, MIN-LVR, SEA-SF, BUF-KC
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-ATL, MIN-LVR, BUF-KC
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coach Sean Payton (Denver).
Rookie Coach Systems
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 143-156-10 ATS (47.8%) in that situation.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON, FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Re-Tread Coach Systems
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 96-135-9 ATS (41.6%).
System Match: FADE DENVER
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 153-286-2 SU (34.9%) and 200-238-3 ATS (45.7%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
- For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 92-143 SU and 98-129-8 ATS (43.2%) in that time span.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE NY GIANTS, FADE LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 109-115-1 ATS (48.7%) in home games but just 100-125 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Weeks 10-18, they are just 29-88 SU & 47-68-2 ATS (40.9%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of seven points or more have won just 27 games, going 27-168 SU and 78-108-9 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks are solid bets in the larger favorite role
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks are 70-18 SU and 51-36-1 ATS (58.6%) when favored by more than a field goal.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 68-92-1 ATS (42.5%). As divisional dogs of five points or more, rookie QBs are just 8-63 SU and 26-45-1 ATS (36.6%) in that span.
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+5)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 40-87-1 SU and 54-73-1 ATS (42.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE, FADE CAROLINA, FADE LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
- Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 9-13 SU but 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in their last 22 such tries. Moreover, they are 14-5-1 ATS (73.7%) in their last 20 Monday Night contests.
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS, PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
- Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 23-34 SU but 34-21-2 ATS (61.8%) since 2012.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (+6 at PIT)
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 20-13 SU but 11-22 ATS (33.3%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match: FADE MIAMI ATS (-13 vs TEN)
CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
- NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 16-9 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) record.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+6.5 vs. GB), PLAY LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs. DEN)
- Alternatively to #11 above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 15-7 SU and 18-4 ATS (81.8%) since 2015.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (+6 at PIT)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 30-29 SU and 37-20-2 ATS (64.9%) in the last 59.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with Week 9-17 home teams going 18-18 SU and 17-21 ATS (44.7%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 34-24 SU and 33-23-2 ATS (58.9%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
- There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 15-16 SU and 22-8-1 ATS (73.3%) record.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
- Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 23-29 SU and 18-33-1 ATS (35.3%).
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH ATS
Bad TNF Team Trends
Pittsburgh is 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 13-11 SU and 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in their last 24 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE DALLAS ATS
- Home field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 17-10 SU and 16-10-1 ATS (61.5%) record since 2019.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 9-18 SU and ATS (33.3%) in their last 27 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-15 SU and 11-15-1 ATS (42.3%) in their last 27, but those coming off a win are on a current 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS (66.7%) surge.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
- Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 10-7 SU but 3-14 ATS (17.6%) in their last 17 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match: FADE DALLAS ATS
- More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 10-22 SU and 11-21 ATS (34.4%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match: FADE DALLAS ATS
Good SNF Team Trends
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the last six.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
UNDER the Total SNF Team Trends
Dallas is 14-6 Under since 2016
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in PHI-DAL
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 10-10 SU and 12-7-1 ATS (63.2%) dating back to September 2021. The last 18 of these games have seen Under the total go 16-1-1 (94.1%) as well, games producing just 34.8 PPG.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS, also PLAY UNDER in GB-NYG
- Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 43-13 SU but just 19-35-2 ATS (35.2%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE MIAMI ATS
- In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 13-15 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) surge since 2019.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI ATS, PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
- In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 8-11 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) in their last 19 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 30-25 SU but just 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in the last 55 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI ATS, FADE GREEN BAY ATS
Good MNF Team Trends
Green Bay is 9-2 SU in the last 11, 4-1 ATS in the last five
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
Bad MNF Team Trends
NY Giants eight straight losses (3-5 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS
OVER the total MNF Team Trends
Tennessee is 6-1 Over in the last seven
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in TEN-MIA
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas is 11-3 ATS in the last 14
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
Green Bay is 14-6 SU and 15-5 ATS in the last 20
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
NY Giants is 3-21 SU since their last back-to-back wins (10-14 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY JETS
Over the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tennessee is 12-7 Over in the last 19
System Match: PLAY OVER in TEN-MIA
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Miami nine straight Unders
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TEN-MIA
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost their last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 22-50 SU but 45-26-1 ATS (63.4%) since 2007.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS (+5.5 vs HOU)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 56-13 SU and 46-21-2 ATS (68.7%) in the next game when favored.
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-1 at CIN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 19-60 but 49-26-2 ATS (62.6%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (+6 at PIT)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 49-32 SU but 30-48-3 ATS (38.5%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS (-5 vs CAR)
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
NO MORE PRE-BYE WEEK GAMES THIS SEASON
Post-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 106-44 SU and 90-57-3 ATS since 1999, 61.2%, +27.2 Units, 18.5% R.O.I., Grade 67)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-3 at LVR)
Post-bye week ROAD FAVORITE subsystems:
- vs. nonconference opponents. (Record: 33-15-2 ATS since 2000, 68.8%, +16.4 Units, 34.2% R.O.I., Grade 68)
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 21-18 SU and 24-12-1 ATS since 2015, 66.7%, +10.81 Units, 30% R.O.I., Grade 72)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-3 at LVR), PLAY LA RAMS (+7 at BAL)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 38-16 SU and 32-21-1 ATS since ’99, 60.4%, +8.81 Units, 16.6% R.O.I., Grade 62)
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-3 at CHI), PLAY MINNESOTA (-3 at LVR), PLAY GREEN BAY (-6.5 at NYG)
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 26-18-2 since 2010, 59.1%, +6.22 Units, 14.1% R.O.I., Grade 59)
System Match: PLAY OVER in GB-NYG (o/u at 37)
*three other post-bye games this week currently at 40, so check back later in week*
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 18-8 SU and ATS since 2019, 69.2%, +9.2 Units, 35.4% R.O.I., Grade 67)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs BUF)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
BALTIMORE Post-Bye-Week Game: 12/10 LA RAMS
- Baltimore has lost three straight post-bye-week games ATS after a 9-3 ATS run prior
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE ATS
- The Ravens are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their previous seven post-bye-week games vs. NFC foes
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS
BUFFALO Post-Bye-Week Game: 12/10 at Kansas City
- Buffalo is on an 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS run in post-bye-week games and is 19-10-2 ATS dating back to 1993
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
- The Bills are on a 6-3-1 ATS run in post-bye-week road games
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
CHICAGO Post-Bye-Week Game: 12/10 DETROIT
- Chicago has lost its last nine post-bye-week games SU and is 1-8 ATS, outscored by 12.8 PPG
System Match: FADE CHICAGO ATS
- The Bears are on a 6-1 Over the total surge in post-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
LAS VEGAS Post-Bye-Week Game: 12/10 MINNESOTA
- The Raiders broke an 0-5 SU and ATS skid in post-bye-week games last season in a win over Houston
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS
- The Raiders are on an ugly 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in their last six post-bye-week games vs. NFC foes, outscored by 15.7 PPG
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS
MINNESOTA Post-Bye-Week Game: 12/10 at Las Vegas
- For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye-week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 4-9 SU and ATS in the last 13
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
- The Vikings are on runs of 6-1 SU as well as 4-1 ATS in post-bye-week games vs. AFC foes
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA
NY GIANTS Post-Bye-Week Game: MON 12/11 GREEN BAY
- Since their last two-game post-bye-week ATS winning streak in 2000 and 2001, the Giants are 7-14-1 ATS in such games
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS ATS
- The Giants have gone Under the total in their last four post-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Dallas: 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS since 2017
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3.5 vs PHI)
– Detroit: 12-2 ATS run in rematches
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-3 at CHI)
– New Orleans: 11-3 SU and ATS run
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-5 vs CAR)
– San Francisco: 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in the last 16
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5 vs SEA)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Carolina: 12-19 SU and 10-21 ATS in rematches since 2014
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+5 at NO)
– Chicago: 2-12 ATS in the last 14
System Match: FADE CHICAGO ATS (+3 vs DET)
– Philadelphia: just 5-8 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 rematch games
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at DAL)
Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
– Chicago: 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 as host
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3 vs DET)
Worst NFL revenge teams lately
– Chicago: 4-18 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in the last 22 revenge tries
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3 vs DET)
Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– San Francisco: 10-1 SU and ATS in the last 11 when having won initial outing
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5 vs SEA)
High-scoring rematch teams
– Dallas: 15 straight Overs in home rematch games!
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHI-DAL (o/u at 53)
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+1.7) and LAS VEGAS +3 (+1.7), 3. TAMPA BAY +2.5 (+1.5), 4. CINCINNATI +1 (+1.3), 5. NEW ENGLAND +6 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 (+2.8), 2. DETROIT -3 (+2.0), 3. HOUSTON -4.5 (+1.4), 4. KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+1.2), 5. GREEN BAY -6.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS +7 (+2.0), 2. CAROLINA +5 (+1.7), 3. SEATTLE +10.5 (+1.1), 4(tie). JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+0.8) and LAS VEGAS +3 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -4.5 (+2.5), 2. KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+1.7), 3. PITTSBURGH -6 (+1.1), 4. DALLAS -3.5 (+0.9), 5. ATLANTA -2.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JAX-CLE OVER 30.5 (+6.7), 2. CAR-NO OVER 37.5 (+4.1), 3. HOU-NYJ OVER 33 (+2.4), 4. LAR-BAL OVER 40 (+2.3), 5. GB-NYJ OVER 37 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-KC UNDER 48.5 (-4.2), 2. DEN-LAC UNDER 44 (-1.3), 3. SEA-SF UNDER 47 (-1.1), 4. PHI-DAL UNDER 51.5 (-0.7), 5. TEN-MIA UNDER 46.5 (-0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +4.5 (+4.0), 2. NEW ENGLAND +6 (+3.9), 3. CINCINNATI +1 (+2.9), 4. LA RAMS +7 (+2.4), 5. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+2.0)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY -6.5 (+4.9), 2. DETROIT -3 (+4.8), 3. KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+2.4), 4. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JAX-CLE OVER 30.5 (+6.7), 2. DET-CHI OVER 43 (+4.5), 3. LAR-BAL OVER 40 (+4.4), 4. HOU-NYJ OVER 33 (+3.6), 5. IND-CIN OVER 43 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-LAC UNDER 44 (-1.7), 2(tie). SEA-SF UNDER 47 (-1.3) and BUF-KC UNDER 48.5 (-1.3), 4. MIN-LVR UNDER 40 (-0.4), 5. TEN-MIA UNDER 46.5 (-0.1)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 20-21 SU but 28-13 ATS (68.3%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2.7, Team average PF: 23.5
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3 at CHI)
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) in home games. The average line was -3.3, Team average PF: 24.8
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-13 vs TEN)
* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 29-8 SU and 26-11 ATS (70.3%) in divisional games. The average line was -4.1, Team average PF: 29
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-22 SU and 7-18-1 ATS (28%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.9, Team average PF: 18.8
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3 vs DET)
* Matthew Stafford (LAR) is 2-15 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.2%) as an underdog of more than 7 points. The average line was +10.5, Team average PF: 17.4
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+7 at BAL)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ATLANTA is 16-29 ATS (35.6%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 30-52 ATS (36.6%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 vs TB)
* BALTIMORE is 44-54 ATS (44.9%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-7 vs LAR)
* BUFFALO is 33-25 ATS (56.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 23-18 ATS (56.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at KC)
* CHICAGO is 8-20 ATS (28.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 21-35 ATS (37.5%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3 vs DET)
* CINCINNATI is 43-24 ATS (64.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 22-12 ATS (64.7%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+1 vs IND)
* CLEVELAND is 28-39 ATS (41.8%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 16-28 ATS (36.4%) as a favorite since 2017
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-3 vs JAX)
* DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3.5 vs PHI)
* DENVER is 89-54 Under the total (62.2%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-LAC (o/u at 44)
* DETROIT is 17-10 ATS (63%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* DETROIT is 31-14 ATS (68.9%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3 at CHI)
* JACKSONVILLE is 23-34 ATS (40.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 28-19 Under the total (59.6%) since 2021
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+3 at CLE), also PLAY UNDER in JAX-CLE (o/u at 30.5)
* LA CHARGERS are 30-46 ATS (39.5%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs DEN)
* LA RAMS are 10-16 ATS (38.5%) vs. nonconference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 40-27 Under the total (59.7%) since 2020
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+7 at BAL), also PLAY UNDER in LAR-BAL (o/u at 40)
* LAS VEGAS is 27-43 ATS (38.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+3 vs MIN)
* MIAMI is 54-25 ATS (68.4%) at home since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-13 vs TEN)
* MINNESOTA is 30-20 ATS (60%) when coming off SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 29-16 ATS (64.4%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 46-34 Over the total (57.5%) since 2019
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-3 at LVR), also PLAY OVER the total in MIN-LVR (o/u at 40)
* NEW ENGLAND is 6-17 ATS (26.1%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+6 at PIT)
* NEW ORLEANS is 23-17 ATS (57.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 18-36 ATS (33.3%) at home since 2017
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ORLEANS (-5 vs CAR)
* NY GIANTS are 42-19 Under the total (68.9%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in GB-NYG (o/u at 37)
* PHILADELPHIA is 13-22 ATS (37.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* PHILADELPHIA is 17-24 ATS (41.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at DAL)
* PITTSBURGH is 91-57 Under the total (61.5%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NE-PIT (o/u at 30)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 34-21 ATS (61.8%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 18-10 ATS (64.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5 vs SEA)
* SEATTLE is 31-19 ATS (62%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 30-21 ATS (58.8%) as an underdog since 2016
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+10.5 at SF)
* TENNESSEE is 31-45 ATS (40.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+13 at MIA)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(101) NEW ENGLAND at (102) PITTSBURGH
* The last five games of the NE-PIT rivalry in Pittsburgh went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(125) BUFFALO at (126) KANSAS CITY
* Road teams are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 of the BUF-KC rivalry
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
(111) CAROLINA at (112) NEW ORLEANS
* CAROLINA is 5-1 ATS in the last six trips to New Orleans
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
(123) DENVER at (124) LA CHARGERS
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the DEN-LAC series at Chargers
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(109) DETROIT at (110) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven hosting Detroit
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(117) HOUSTON at (118) NY JETS
* Underdogs are on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the HOU-NYJ series
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS
(115) INDIANAPOLIS at (116) CINCINNATI
* Underdogs have won the last three ATS in the IND-CIN series
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS