VSiN Analytics Report for Week 13
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, LA CHARGERS, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI, DETROIT, CAROLINA, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, JACKSONVILLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the ’23 season, I’m still leaving this system on as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY, JACKSONVILLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, CAROLINA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, TAMPA BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority handle and the number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) and 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) & 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, KANSAS CITY, JACKSONVILLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, SAN FRANCISCO, LA RAMS
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-NE, ATL-NYJ, MIA-WAS, CAR-TB, CIN-JAX
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ARI-PIT, DET-NO, SF-PHI, CLE-LAR, KC-GB
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-NO, CLE-LAR
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coach Sean Payton (Denver).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 123-140-7 ATS (46.8%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS ATS
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 168-189-9 ATS (47.1%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 142-156-10 ATS (47.7%) in that situation.
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Re-Tread Coach Systems
NONE THIS WEEK
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 152-285-2 SU (34.8%) and 198-238-3 ATS (45.4%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
- For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 91-141 SU and 96-128-8 ATS (42.9%) in that time span.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 108-114-1 ATS (48.6%) in home games but just 99-125 ATS (44.2%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 29-87 SU and 46-68-2 ATS (40.4%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks are solid bets in the larger favorite role
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks are 69-18 SU and 50-36-1 ATS (58.1%) when favored by more than a field goal.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and Nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 67-91-1 ATS (42.4%). As divisional dogs of five points or more, rookie QBs are just 8-63 SU and 26-45-1 ATS (36.6%) in that span.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 39-86-1 SU and 52-73-1 ATS (41.6%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CAROLINA, FADE CLEVELAND
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 19-13 SU but 11-21 ATS (34.4%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-8.5 vs Seattle)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
Alternatively to #6 above, NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 20-17 SU but 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) when favored in their last 37 opportunities.
System Match: FADE DALLAS ATS (-8.5 vs Seattle)
CRAZY LOW-SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
Alternatively to #11 above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 15-6 SU and 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2015.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND (+6 vs LA Chargers)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday Night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 30-28 SU and 36-20-2 ATS (64.3%) in the last 58.
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with Week 9-17 home teams going 17-18 SU and 17-20 ATS (45.9%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 33-24 SU and 33-22-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
- NFL home favorites of seven points or more are on a 28-2 SU and 20-8-2 ATS (71.4%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
Good TNF Team Trends
Seattle is 9-4 SU and 7-4-2 ATS in the last 13
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 16-16 SU and 20-10-2 ATS (66.7%) dating back to 2017.
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
- In SNF games pitting nonconference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 23-20 SU and 16-25-2 ATS (39%) in the last 43. Under the total is also 23-12 (65.7%) in the last 35.
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY ATS, also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42)
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-15 SU and 11-15-1 ATS (42.3%) in their last 27, but those coming off a win are on a current 17-3 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) surge.
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
- More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 10-21 SU and 11-20 ATS (35.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since ’19.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS
Over the total SNF Team Trends
Green Bay is 13-6 OVER the total since 2016
Kansas City is 14-6 OVER since 2016, combined avg. 54.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in KC-GB
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 43-12 SU but just 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE ATS
- In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 13-14 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) surge since 2019.
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 30-24 SU but just 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE ATS
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 5-1-1 Under the last six games, scoring 15.7 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in CIN-JAX
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 10-3 ATS in the last 13
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
Green Bay 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS in the last 19
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
Kansas City 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS in the last 20 road primetime games
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS
Over the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Kansas City 17-5 Over surge in road games
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in KC-GB
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends
Seattle 8-2 Under in the last 10
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SEA-DAL
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 18-60 SU but 48-28-2 ATS (63.2%%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (+8.5 at JAX)
NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 19-22 SU but 26-13-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last 41 games versus nonconference foes.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS (+2.5 vs ATL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their L3 games outright have gone 48-32 SU but 29-48-3 ATS (37.7%) when favored by three points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS ATS (-6 at NE)
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Pre-bye-week system #3
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 36-18-2 ATS since 2015, 66.7%, +16.2 Units, 30% R.O.I., Grade 68)
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs Miami)
ARIZONA Pre-Bye-Week-Game: 12/3 at Pittsburgh
- Arizona is on a 7-3 ATS surge in pre-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS
- The Cardinals are on a 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in pre-bye-week games as road/neutral underdogs
System Match: FADE ARIZONA ATS
WASHINGTON Pre-Bye-Week Game: 12/3 MIAMI
- Dating back to 1993, Washington is just 10-22-1 ATS in pre-bye-week games overall
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON ATS
- Washington has gone just 1-6-1 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last eight pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON ATS
Post-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
NO TEAMS COMING OFF OF A BYE THIS WEEK
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Tennessee: 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS surge
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+1 vs Indianapolis)
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week's Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATING projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +6 (+1.9), 2. NEW ENGLAND +6 (+1.4), 3. NEW ORLEANS +4 (+1.3), 4. PHILADELPHIA +3 (+1.0), 5. DENVER +3.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). LA RAMS -3.5 (+1.2) and DALLAS -9 (+1.2), 3. JACKSONVILLE -8.5 (+0.8), 4(tie). INDIANAPOLIS -1 (+0.6) and PITTSBURGH -5.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+2.8), 2. NEW ORLEANS +4 (+2.0), 3. PHILADELPHIA +3 (+1.4), 4(tie). CLEVELAND +3.5 (+1.2) and NY JETS +2.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS -6 (+1.3), 2. TAMPA BAY -5.5 (+1.2), 3. HOUSTON -3.5 (+0.8), 4. INDIANAPOLIS -1 (+0.6), 5. DALLAS -9 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-NYJ OVER 34 (+2.3), 2. MIA-WAS OVER 50 (+1.9), 3(tie). CAR-TB OVER 37 (+1.5) and KC-GB OVER 42 (+1.5), 5. CIN-JAX OVER 38 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-HOU UNDER 47.5 (-1.5), 2. IND-TEN UNDER 42.5 (-1.0), 3. DET-NO UNDER 46 (-0.7), 4. SEA-DAL UNDER 47.5 (-0.6), 5. CLE-LAR UNDER 39.5 (-0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI +8.5 (+4.6), 2. PHILADELPHIA +3 (+3.2), 3(tie). NEW ENGLAND +6 (+3.0) and DENVER +3.5 (+3.0), 5. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+2.2)
This week’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY -6 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-NO OVER 46 (+3.5), 2. CIN-JAX OVER 38 (+2.9), 3. SF-PHI OVER 46.5 (+1.7), 4. ATL-NYJ OVER 34 (+1.5), 5. MIA-WAS OVER 50 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-LAR UNDER 39.5 (-1.8), 2. CAR-TB UNDER 37 (-1.0), 3. LAC-NE UNDER 41 (-0.8), 4. ARI-PIT UNDER 41 (-0.4), 5. DEN-HOU UNDER 47.5 (-0.2)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 19-21 SU but 27-13 ATS (67.5%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 23.3
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-4 at NO)
* Derek Carr (NO) is 16-27 SU and 13-28-2 ATS (31.7%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.7, Team average PF: 19.8
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs DET)
* Mac Jones (NE) is 0-13 SU & ATS (0%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +2.8, Team average PF: 17.2
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+6 vs LAC) *only if he starts*
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 23-18 ATS (56.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 19-14 ATS (57.6%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+5.5 at PIT)
* ATLANTA is 29-52 ATS (35.8%) as a favorite since 2014
* ATLANTA is 13-29 ATS (31%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 at NYJ)
* CINCINNATI is 42-24 ATS (63.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 48-27 ATS (64%) in road/neutral games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 21-12 ATS (63.6%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+8.5 at JAX)
* CLEVELAND is 12-4 ATS (75%) vs. nonconference foes since 2020
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 at LAR)
* DALLAS is 27-16 ATS (62.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-8.5 vs SEA)
* DENVER is 88-54 UNDER the total (62%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-HOU (o/u at 47.5)
* DETROIT is 30-14 ATS (68.2%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-4 at NO)
* GREEN BAY is 26-15 ATS (63.4%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+6 vs KC)
* JACKSONVILLE is 17-23 ATS (42.5%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 28-18 UNDER the total (60.9%) since 2021
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-8.5 vs CIN), also PLAY UNDER in CIN-JAX (o/u at 38)
* KANSAS CITY is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) vs. nonconference foes since 2021
* KANSAS CITY is 51-32 ATS (61.4%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-6 at GB)
* LA RAMS are 9-16 ATS (36%) vs. nonconference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 40-26 UNDER the total (60.6%) since 2020
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (-3.5 vs CLE), also PLAY UNDER in CLE-LAR (o/u at 39.5)
* MIAMI is 25-15 ATS (62.5%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-9.5 at WAS)
* NEW ENGLAND is 6-16 ATS (27.3%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+6 vs LAC)
* NEW ORLEANS is 23-16 ATS (59%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 18-35 ATS (34%) at home since 2017
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs DET)
* NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (34.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+2.5 vs ATL)
* PITTSBURGH is 17-26 ATS (39.5%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 90-57 Under the total (61.2%) since 2015
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs ARI), also PLAY UNDER in ARI-PIT (o/u at 41)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 33-21 ATS (61.1%) when coming off SU win since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at PHI)
* SEATTLE is 30-19 ATS (61.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 29-21 ATS (58%) as an underdog since 2016
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+8.5 at DAL)
* TAMPA BAY is 22-33 ATS (40%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 32-44 ATS (42.1%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 29-43 ATS (40.3%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-5.5 vs CAR)
* TENNESSEE is 22-16 ATS (57.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+1 vs IND)
* WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 36-25 Under the total (59%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs MIA), also PLAY UNDER in MIA-WAS (o/u at 50)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(303) SEATTLE at (304) DALLAS
* SEATTLE has won the last four ATS versus Dallas
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS
(457) ARIZONA at (458) PITTSBURGH
* PITTSBURGH has won the last three ATS vs. Arizona
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
(455) ATLANTA at (456) NY JETS
* The last three games of the ATL-NYJ series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(459) CAROLINA at (460) TAMPA BAY
* TAMPA BAY has won the last four SU and ATS hosting Carolina
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS
(469) CLEVELAND at (470) LA RAMS
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the CLE-LAR series
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS