The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Thursday, November 30, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, BROOKLYN, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PORTLAND ML, NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-CLE, CHA-BKN, DET-NYK, UTA-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ATL-SAS
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 165-111 SU and 161-107 ATS (60.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 49-25 SU and 46-26-2 ATS (63.9%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 31-12 SU and 29-13-1 ATS (69%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 33-11 SU and 28-13-3 ATS (68.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 19-10 SU and 17-5-7 ATS (77.3%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
* Host teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 9-2 SU and 9-1-1 ATS (100%) hosting teams playing a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last two seasons.
11/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS (69.6%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/30: NEW YORK vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-14.5 vs DET)
* Over the total was 94-60 (61%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/30: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 248.5)
* Over the total was 45-29 (60.8%) over the last two season when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/30: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 248.5)
* Over the total was 28-21 (57.1%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/30: OVER the total in NEW YORK-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 218)
* Over the total was 25-17 (59.5%) last season when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/30: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 248.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA was 25-8 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
11/30: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 248.5)
* BROOKLYN is 22-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
11/30: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* BROOKLYN was 16-5 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
11/30: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 68-17 SU and 53-29 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
11/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. La Clippers
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-5 vs LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 90-21 SU but just 43-67-1 ATS (39.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND ATS (-12 vs POR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-49 (56.6%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-84 (57.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 157-106 (59.7%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-CLE (o/u at 219), PLAY OVER in DET-NYK (o/u at 218), PLAY UNDER in UTA-MIN (o/u at 221.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 229-171 (57.3%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAL-OKC (o/u at 233.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 163-181 SU and 149-193-2 ATS (43.6%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (+12 at CLE), FADE LA CLIPPERS (+5 at GSW)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 98-67 SU and 98-65-2 ATS (60.1%).
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-12 vs POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been an 8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (123-149 ATS, 45.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (176-159 ATS, 52.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT ATS (+14.5 at NYK), PLAY CHICAGO (+8.5 vs MIL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 143-183 ATS (43.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-79 SU & 39-55-3 ATS (41.5%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+14.5 at NYK), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 vs ATL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGD according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +2 (+2.5), 2. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+2.3), 3. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+1.6), 2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+1.2) and NEW YORK -14.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+4.7), 2. INDIANA +2 (+2.6), 3. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+2.6), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+1.8), 3. BROOKLYN -8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-CHI OVER 229 (+7.1), 2. CHA-BKN OVER 223.5 (+4.6), 3. LAC-GSW OVER 228 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-SAS UNDER 248.5 (-6.4), 2. POR-CLE UNDER 219 (-1.9), 3. DET-NYK UNDER 218 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +2 (+3.7), 2. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+2.5), 3. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+1.8), 2. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+1.2), 3. BROOKLYN -8.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-CHI OVER 229 (+6.9), 2. CHA-BKN OVER 223.5 (+4.8), 3. LAL-OKC OVER 233.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-SAS UNDER 248.5 (-5.5), 2. IND-MIA UNDER 238 (-2.4), 3. POR-CLE UNDER 219 (-2.0)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(509) ATLANTA at (510) SAN ANTONIO
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the ATL-SAN series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS