Friday was a full day.
For starters, I recently bought my wife a new dishwasher and a washer and dryer set (you know, to make her life easier as she becomes a football widow for the next 5 months!). But I had to borrow a dolly from a neighbor to haul the worn-out appliances to the curb for the garbage man to haul away). I also ran around entering several football contests in town and also signing up some proxy clients for the big contests (last call as entries at Circa, the Westgate and William Hill all close on Saturday). Oh, and I also helped edit and post some stories to VSiN,com. Hey, not to toot our own horn too much here at VSiN.com, but our site has to have the biggest menu of sports-betting stories on the planet. I mean, Point Spread Weekly had a great 5-year run and was chock-full of stories and data every week, but VSiN.com has everything you need for everyone living the sports betting lifestyle. Granted, I feel I’m preaching to the choir as I know a lot of my regular readers are VSiN subscribers already, but if you’re not, check out to see everything we have to offer on the site as well as on the broadcasts and podcasts. Anyway, I’m happy to report we also won our Best Bet on the Marlins 1st 5 + 125 as Edward Cabrera allowed just 1 run in the first 5 innings as the Marlins led 3-1 to cash our bet. They also went on to win the game 6-3 for those who took the full-game money line with our swagger play. I officially (and in reality) got a refund on my second play, the A’s 1st 5 + 120 vs. White Sox as Oakland starter James Kapriellan was scratched and replaced by Austin Pruitt, who pitched 5 no-hit innings as the A’s led 3-0 after 5 innings. I didn’t get a bet in, but hopefully some readers did. Let’s recap the rest of the (full-game) Friday action and then post our Best Bets for Saturday, highlighted by College Football Week 2..Friday’s recaps
CFB: Louisville upset Central Florida 20-14 Friday night as 5.5-point road underdogs and + 180 on the money line. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 62 points. In the only other major college football game on the Friday betting board, Boise State beat New Mexico 31-14, pushing as a consensus 17-point road favorite. Bettors on both sides who shopped around and got the better of the number they wanted were able to cash. That game went Over the low total of 43.5.
MLB: Faves went 8-6 Friday with the Guardians-Twins game closing pick-’em. Upsets were by the Pirates (+ 172 in 8-2 win vs. Cardinals), Marlins (+ 143 in 6-3 win vs. Mets), Reds (+ 133 in 8-2 win at Braves) and Cubs (+ 132 in 4-2 win vs. Giants). Road teams went 8-7. Overs went 8-6-1 with the push in the White Sox’s 5-3 win at A’s.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,236-801 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 31 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,093-973 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 1,014-944-107 (51.9 percent).
Saturday’s Takes
Houston + 4 vs. Texas Tech: I was already thinking that maybe the wrong team was favored here. Then, Texas Tech QB Tyler Slough was declared out for two weeks and this line continued to climb. I’ll fade the move.
Kentucky + 6 at Florida. I’m not as thrilled with this spot as just last week we lost with Utah at Florida, though Utah certainly had its chances and just wasn’t able to execute at the right times.
Angels 1st 5 + 100 at Astros: Let’s back Shohei Ohtani (11-8, 2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) as he’s actually been better recently at a 1.89 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts, plus he has owned the Astros this season. Let’s also play with some house money and wheel back on the Marlins 1st 5 + 125 vs. the Mets with Pablo Lopez (8-9, 3.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) getting the start vs. Carlos Carrasco (better record at 13-6 because he pitches for the Mets, but higher 3.91 ERA and 1.33 WHIP).
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of “Tuley’s Takes Today,” which starting this year will be where I post my popular, long-running NFL column where I give my “takes” on every game on the NFL schedule.
I’ve written it the last five seasons in VSiN’s digital online magazine, “Point Spread Weekly,” but we’re rearranged how we provide our contest to VSiN subscribers and we’re combining my weekly column into these daily columns so we can offer fresher opinions (and we’ll keep it at the bottom of our columns throughout the weekend and be able to update our recommended wagers in case there are changes in the lines due to injuries, COVID issues, weather or any other reason, including plain market movements).
For the newbies joining us, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so in most games I’ll be basically trying to see if I feel I’m getting enough points to take the underdog. However, I believe it should be pointed out that even though I only bet dogs, I don’t bet every dog. The “pass” part of my mantra is a valid opinion where I believe it’s best to just stay away and look for other games to bet. I’m also proud to mention that I have heard from many chalk bettors (or at least those that play far more favorites than I do) over the years that they love when I pass on a dog because they see it as a “buy sign” on the favorite because I was unable to make a case for the dog. Again, I believe that’s a valid, logical way to approach my takes on the games.
Now, this Week 1 is going to have a different feel than the columns the rest of the season as these lines have been up since May and have settled for the most part (though we’ll note some exceptions in the individual games).
Also, if you were reading my columns when the schedule was released, you probably remember that I only liked three opening lines: Dolphins -2.5 vs. the Patriots, Jaguars + 4.5 at the Commanders and Cowboys + 3 vs. the Buccaneers (and hopefully a lot of you bet them as we’re in great positions now whether we decided to let our bets ride since we have the best numbers or try to shoot for some “middles” or “sides”). For those who don’t know, a “middle” is when you bet both teams in a game (like -2.5 and + 3.5) and the final margin lands in the middle, so you win both bets. A “side” is when the margin lands on one of the numbers (such as -2 and + 3) and you win one bet and push the other.
Since most readers aren’t in that position, we’re going to go through all the games as if we’re all just betting the games this week and looking for the best bets on the opening-weekend card.
Another way this column is different than coming weeks is we’re going to rely very heavily on teasers. In fact, I already gave out several teasers on my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” at 9:15 p.m. PT Sunday and in the earlier versions of this column this week. I’ll cite those as we go through the games along with my Best Bet if betting ATS. And if I happen to pass, I’ll still give my “pool play” recommendations because I know a lot of readers are in pools where you have to play every game.
Without further ado, here come my “takes.”
Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of Tuesday night. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page here for current odds.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The season-opener is the first of 10 – count ‘em, 10 – road favorites, the most ever in a Week 1. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams opened as a 1-point home favorites, but the Bills are the future-book fave (around 6-1) and are up to 2.5-point road chalk. It’s getting more tempting to grab the Rams as home dogs, but the sharpest play looks like it’s to tease the Rams up to + 8.5 on a 6-point teaser. I’m doing that with the other four “advantage teasers” (also known as “Wong teaser” for the old-timers) that capture the key number of 3 and 7: Ravens (-1 at Jets), Colts (-1 at Texans), Vikings (+ 8 vs. Packers) and Cowboys + 8.5 vs. Buccaneers).
Best Bet: Pass, but Rams in teasers LOSS (pool play: Rams 55/45 in my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday night games).
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets
This line opened Ravens -4.5 and climbed not only because bettors like the Ravens but also as Zach Wilson was expected to miss the opener. There’s been rumblings that he might start instead of Joe Flacco, but the line has held steady at 7, which is fine with us as it’s in teaser range. As I discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I like to group my teasers (or parlays) by starting times to resist the urge to hedge – just like I used to do with NHL 1st Period Overs for those that were part of our hot run in the winter and spring of 2019 – so the two-teamer I’m playing in the early Sunday games is Ravens -1/Colts -1.
Best Bet: Pass, but Ravens in teasers (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests – though would be 100 percent on -6.5 or + 7.5 if offered those in ATS contests – and around 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
We have yet another road fave in this NFC South opener. This line has also creeped up from -3.5 to -5.5, which is probably more due to bettors ignoring or choosing to fade the Falcons with Matt Ryan gone and being replaced by Marcus Mariota. It’ll be interesting to see how Jameis Winston fares in his 2nd year as the starting QB in New Orleans. Before he suffered an ACL tear and missed the second half last year, he had thrown 14 TD passes and had just 3 INTs, which has long been his biggest problem.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints around 60/40 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
As mentioned above, I bet the Dolphins -2.5 back in May because I truly believed this line would be bet to the key number of 3. And if it stayed there, I would have probably let my bet ride, but with it now crossing the key number and giving us the hook at + 3.5, the betting value has flipped to the Patriots as we don’t see the Dolphins that much better than the Pats. When I’m trying to set up middles like this, it’s more common for me to bet about 20-25 percent back on the other side, but in this case I’m going to come “over the top” and bet more on the Patriots.
Best Bet: Patriots + 3.5 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, though Dolphins still slightly more in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (pick)
The Browns opened as 4.5-point faves (so there should be 11 road chalk!) but that was before it became apparent that Deshaun Watson was going to be suspended, causing this line to flip. I’m not the biggest Jacoby Brissett fan, but there now seems to be more value on the Browns as short road dogs. They still have the better overall team, but with the line so short I just can’t pull the trigger. This could be another game to add to the teaser portfolio as you can tease the Browns up over a full TD. (Editor's note: this line was back to pick-'em at DraftKings and most other books as of early Friday morning.
Best Bet: Pass, and Browns no longer in teasers (pool play: Browns around 55/45 in both SU and ATS contests).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
This line has stayed pretty solid at Bengals -6.5 after taking over the AFC North last season and making a trip to the Super Bowl. A case could be made that the Bengals are the better team (and some will tease them down to basically pick-’em), but we also need to beware of the Super Bowl loser’s hangover. That has me on the fence about taking the Steelers despite having to trust Mitch Trubisky as he was named Ben Roethlisberger’s successor on Tuesday. We’d like it a lot better at + 7, though that seems unlikely.
Best Bet: Pass, but reserving right to change mind if we get + 7 (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 70/30 in SU pools).