Another college football regular season has flown by, and we have arrived at championship week, with all 10 FBS conferences playing their title games on Friday or Saturday. There are a few highly influential games that fans will be glued to, with the CFP still left to be sorted out.
Unlike recent seasons where the “final four” figured to have at least a couple of one-loss teams involved, for 2023, there are four Power Five conference teams going into this weekend’s games undefeated. You would figure by just winning their games, they would be in, right?
Well, nothing is ever set in stone, and with 11-1 teams like Oregon, Texas, and Alabama looking to play their way in, things could get very interesting. It figures to be a great couple of days of football, and if history is any indication, anything can and will happen.
From a betting perspective, these conference championships are always huge draws, and besides the usual handicapping routines, studying the history of each game can give bettors an edge. Unlike recent years, a lot of this year’s games are expected to be a lot more competitive. Double-digit point spreads are unfortunately not all that uncommon for these games. For this weekend, three of the 10 games boast such lines, with two others in excess of a touchdown. Last year there were only three of 10 games with lines of greater than a TD. Wouldn’t you know it, all three of those heavy favorites won their game games by at least 20 points. In fact, in all, the Chalk was 8-2 SU and ATS a year ago.
Is this typical? Should we expect the same this weekend? That is a dangerous assumption to make, but one thing that has been proven to be true over the last two years is that these games have been decisive. Only two of the 20 games in that span were decided by seven points or less, and the outright winners in those contests are 20-0 ATS! That certainly offers some evidence for laying points with favorites and betting money lines with underdogs.
Are there any other trends by conference or overall systems that have developed that bettors should be paying attention to? I’m about to reveal answers to those questions as a I look at the betting history of each of the league’s championship games and how it might affect this year’s contests. The games are in board number order.
Friday, December 1, 2023
Oregon (-9.5, 66.5) vs. Washington
The 13th and final annual Pac-12 championship matchup should sound familiar to fans as the teams squared off in mid-October, and Washington handed Oregon its only loss of the season, 36-33. The Huskies remain undefeated and ranked #3 in the CFP standings. Obviously, a win and they will be in the playoff foursome.
It won’t be easy though, as despite the earlier head-to-head win and the unblemished record, head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team still finds itself as a near double-digit underdog. Oregon has been on fire since the lone defeat of the season, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS while scoring 42 PPG even while facing a daunting schedule.
This game will also feature an intriguing sidebar matchup between two Heisman Trophy quarterback candidates in Michael Penix and Bo Nix. This will be the first Pac-12 title game since 2016 that didn’t include USC or Utah. Neither team is a stranger to this stage, however, as Washington has been in the game twice, winning SU and ATS in both 2016 and 2018.
Oregon is making its sixth appearance and owns a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record prior. The Ducks played in the contest for three straight seasons from 2019-2021. For 2023, the Pac-12 title tilt again happens in Las Vegas, at Allegiant Stadium to be specific. In the last eight Pac-12 title games played in neutral locations, favorites are on a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS surge. However, Utah’s win last year came as an underdog. Interestingly, in the history of this game, favorite covers are accompanied by a 4-1 Under mark on totals, while underdog covers have resulted in 5-2 Over.
New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5, 55.5)
Two newcomers to Conference USA will meet in the championship contest on Friday night and its two programs that are coming off their finest regular FBS seasons ever. New Mexico State had never won more than seven games at college football’s top level, yet owns a 10-3 mark as it prepares to face 12-0 Liberty.
Head coach Jerry Kill has worked some amazing magic since arriving in Las Cruces prior to 2022. He took a two-win team from 2021 to a bowl game last year, and now, this season has been the cherry on top of the sundae. However, his Aggies are still listed as 10.5-point underdogs to an undefeated Flames team that scores 40.1 PPG.
With both teams having joined the league just prior to this season, obviously neither has played in this contest before. In fact, neither has been in a conference title game of any kind before so it should provide for some extra motivation and excitement for Friday’s 7 p.m. ET tilt.
The game will be played at Liberty’s home, Williams Stadium, in Lynchburg. VA. In the history of this contest, host teams are 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS, including outright and ATS wins by UTSA in each of the last two games.
With the elevated point spread, it is also of note that favorites of seven points or more are on a 6-0 SU run, having covered the spread in all of the last five tries. This will also be the second time these teams have squared off in Lynchburg this season, with NMSU (+9.5) looking to avenge a 33-17 defeat back in September. However, just over a year ago, the Aggies won at Liberty 49-14 as 24-point dogs in one of the biggest upsets of the entire 2022 season. Four of the last five CUSA title games have gone Over the total.
Saturday, December 2, 2023
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-15, 55.5)
It took a massive comeback against BYU last week to land Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game where the Cowboys will take on league regular season champ Texas. Neither oddsmakers nor bettors are giving OSU much of a chance as the line opened up at Longhorns -12.5 but has since ballooned to -15.
Head coach Mike Gundy’s team boasts an impressive 9-3 record despite only outscoring opponents by 2.9 PPG. In fact, all three of their losses came by a TD or more and the average margin of defeat was 25 PPG. Of concern here for Gundy is his team allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt and Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been outstanding in 2023, throwing for 2,700+ yards and 8.9 yards per pass.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team still has its sights set on a CFP berth and may need to win in impressive fashion to state its case. The Longhorns are 11-1 with a lone loss coming at the hands of Oklahoma in a 34-30 decision in October. This will be their second, and final, trip to the Big 12 title contest in Arlington, having dropped the 2018 contest to the Sooners.
OSU also lost its only prior appearance here, a 21-16 decision versus Baylor that came down to the game’s final play. The Cowboys were expected to win that day, set up as 7-point favorites. Overall, the Chalk owns a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record in the history of this title game series. Of particular note, however, all six prior games went Under the total, despite games producing 53.5 PPG. These teams did not meet in the regular season of 2023, but were regular rivals in Texas’ tenure in the Big 12. Underdogs have gone 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings.
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (-7.5, 44.5)
The MAC title game is the second longest series of any of the leagues, dating back to 1997, and it has been played at Ford Field in Detroit in every one since 2004. Although both Toledo (7x) and Miami (OH) (5x) have each made plenty of appearances in this game, this will only be the second time they face one another with the conference crown on the line. Incidentally, the Rockets won that earlier contest 35-27 as 1.5-point underdogs in that 2004 game.
Overall, Toledo owns a 4-3 SU and 4-2 ATS mark in this game and is looking to make it two-in-a-row after its 17-7 defeat of Ohio U last season. Miami (OH) is 3-2 SU and ATS in its prior five MAC title game appearances, including two straight wins. This will be a rematch contest from the regular season, with Toledo (-2) looking to follow up a 21-17 win in Oxford in October. In terms of head-to-head series trends, favorites are on a 5-1 ATS surge.
This title game series has become a heavy underdog trending title contest, as dogs have won ATS at a 10-3-1 clip since 2008, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven. However, Toledo’s 2022 win did snap a four-game outright and six-game ATS losing skids for the Chalk. In games with lines of 5.5 points or higher, dogs are on an 8-1-1 ATS run. Under the total is also on a four-game winning streak, although the current number of 44.5 would represent the lowest posted number in the history of the MAC title game.
Boise State (-2.5 / 58) at UNLV (-3, 54)
This will be the 11th annual Mountain West Conference Championship game and the seventh one that has featured Boise State. In the previous six, the Broncos are 3-3 SU but just 1-5 ATS. They will play as a slight road favorite against a UNLV team making its first appearance in the game.
Being favored has been somewhat of a curse in the history of this title game series, as underdogs are on runs of 4-1 SU and 8-1 ATS, including last year’s 28-16 win by Fresno State (+3). Eight of the prior 10 games have gone Under their posted totals as well. Strangely, these conference foes are relative strangers to one another, having not met since 2019. Boise State has won all five recent meetings since 2011, but UNLV holds a 3-2 ATS edge.
Besides the home field edge and the “benefit” of being the underdog, UNLV should be a very motivated team on Saturday having jumped from 5-7 a year ago to 9-3 in this first season under head coach Barry Odom. Even still, bettors aren’t buying the Rebels’ chances, as over 80% of the handle at DraftKings was on the favored Broncos as of this writing.
SMU at Tulane (-4.5, 47.5)
Tulane looks to defend its conference title as it hosts its second straight AAC championship game. After sending UCF off to the Big 12 with a resounding 45-28 decision last season, this year’s opponent will be SMU, making its first appearance in the game. This, of course, is one of four championship games held at home fields, and always has been.
Hosting the game has been of great benefit, with home teams on a six-game winning streak currently (4-2 ATS). During that streak, Over the total has also converted at a 5-1 rate. The Green Wave go into the contest with an 11-1 mark and hope to stay in the running for the Group of Five’s New Year’s 6 Bowl bid. They were only 5-7 ATS however after seeing their scoring average drop from 36.0 PPG in 2022 to 27.9 PPG this fall.
If season numbers are any indication, they may need to score some points to beat SMU, who averaged 41.8 PPG on the year. However, the Mustangs will be without QB Preston Stone after he was lost to a season-ending injury last week. All he did in ’23 was pass for 3,204 yards and 28 TDs while rushing for four more.
SMU had a pretty strong season of its own, winning 10 games in the regular season for just the second time in 40 years. These teams did not meet in the regular season, but Tulane did rout SMU a year ago at home, 59-24. Overall, in the head-to-head series, home teams have won the last four ATS and Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10.
Georgia (-5.5, 54.5) vs. Alabama
The crown jewel of all the conference title games for this weekend, the SEC Championship features a matchup all too familiar, as Georgia takes on Alabama. Whether it’s been here or in the CFP lately, fans have gotten their fair share of these national powerhouses squaring off in big games. In fact, since 2018, they have matched up four times in neutral field contests, with the series tied 2-2 and Georgia owning a 3-1 ATS edge. Underdogs have also gone 3-1 ATS.
This week’s contest will have an obvious impact on the CFP rankings, as undefeated Georgia hopes to maintain its top spot in hopes of getting a shot at a third straight national title. Alabama sits in a familiar position with one loss and hoping to defy their haters and reach yet another playoff. The Tide needed a miraculous finish last week at Auburn to stay alive in the CFP quest.
Many fans and bettors alike have questioned the Bulldogs’ worthiness, at least of comparing themselves to the last two head coach Kirby Smart teams, as they’ve gone just 4-7-1 ATS and only seemed to click in a few contests in 2023. They typically play well on the big stage, however. Speaking of which, Georgia is no stranger to this game, having gone 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS in 10 prior appearances. They have represented the East Division in six of the last seven years, including this year.