The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Tuesday, November 28, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, BROOKLYN, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, NEW YORK
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, NEW YORK ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-CLE, TOR-BKN, HOU-DAL, GSW-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CLE
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 67-36 (65%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/28: Under the total in BROOKLYN-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224)
11/28: Under the total in CLEVELAND-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 237)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 18-28 SU and 15-30 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
11/28: FADE ATLANTA at Cleveland
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4 at CLE)
* BROOKLYN is 21-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
11/28: UNDER the total in TORONTO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224)
* DALLAS is 12-10 SU and 4-16 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
11/28: Under the total in HOUSTON-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-84 (57.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 155-105 (59.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total in CHI-BOS (o/u at 220), PLAY OVER the total in CHA-NYK (o/u at 221)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 183-181 SU and 161-192-11 ATS (45.6%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-1.5 vs TOR)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 98-66 SU and 98-64-2 ATS (60.5%).
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+3.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been an 8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (122-149 ATS, 45%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (176-157 ATS, 52.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+13.5 at BOS)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +13.5 (+3.4), 2. TORONTO +1.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -3 (+2.2), 2. SACRAMENTO -1.5 (+2.0), 3. CLEVELAND -4 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +1.5 (+2.2), 2. HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.9), 3. CHICAGO +13.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -4 (+1.3), 2. SACRAMENTO -1.5 (+1.0), 3. MINNESOTA -3 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-NYK OVER 221 (+1.6), 2. TOR-BKN OVER 224 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-5.3), 2. CHI-BOS UNDER 220 (-4.8), 3. MIL-MIA UNDER 227 (-2.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +13.5 (+2.8), 2. TORONTO +1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -3 (+4.2), 2. MILWAUKEE -3 (+3.9), 3. DALLAS -3.5 (+3.4)
Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-NYK OVER 221 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-3.6), 2. CHI-BOS UNDER 220 (-2.9), 3. OKC-MIN UNDER 229 (-2.2)