The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, November 25, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, ORLANDO, BROOKLYN, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, DENVER ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML, TORONTO ML
This last system involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-MIL, MIN-MEM, TOR-CLE, SAS-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 164-110 SU & 160-106 ATS (60.2%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/26: PORTLAND at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+13 at MIL)
11/26: CHARLOTTE at Orlando
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at ORL)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 18-16 SU and 22-12 ATS (64.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
11/26: BROOKLYN vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-3.5 vs CHI)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 28-22 SU and 29-20-1 ATS (59.2%) hosting teams playing a One DayR est game last season.
11/26: BROOKLYN vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-3.5 vs CHI)
11/26: CLEVELAND vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs TOR)
* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6Days game scenario were 20-8 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3%) last season hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/26: ORLANDO vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-7.5 vs CHA)
* Over the total was 93-59 (61.2%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/26: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)
11/26: Over the total in ORLANDO-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
* Over the total was 65-39 (62.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
11/26: Over the total in BROOKLYN-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 216)
* Under the total was 29-20 (59.2%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/26: Under the total in CHICAGO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 216)
11/26: Under the total in TORONTO-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA was 25-7 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
11/26: Over the total in BOSTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 89-20 SU but just 43-65-1 ATS (39.8%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-13 vs POR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-82 (58.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 154-104 (59.7%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-MIL (o/u at 232), PLAY OVER in SAS-DEN (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 183-182 SU and 154-201-10 ATS (43.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+8 at BOS)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 228-169 (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-BOS (o/u at 236.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been an 8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (121-148 ATS, 45%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (176-156 ATS, 53%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+12 at DEN)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 141-179 ATS (44.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-78 SU and 38-54-3 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+12 at DEN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +8 (+1.4), 2(tie). TORONTO +1.5 (+1.1) and MEMPHIS +7 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -3.5 (+3.0), 2. ORLANDO -7.5 (+1.9), 3. MILWAUKEE -13 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7 (+2.2), 2. TORONTO +1.5 (+1.1), 3. CHICAGO +4 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -12 (+3.1), 2. ORLANDO -7.5 (+1.1), 3. NEW YORK -3.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-BKN OVER 216 (+4.6), 2. POR-MIL OVER 230.5 (+2.8), 3. SAS-DEN OVER 228.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-NYK UNDER 219.5 (-5.6), 2. MIN-MEM UNDER 217.5 (-2.4), 3. CHA-ORL UNDER 228 (-2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+1.8), 2(tie). MEMPHIS +7 (+0.6) and ATLANTA +8 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -3.5 (+1.9), 2. MILWAUKEE -13 (+1.3), 3. DENVER -12 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-BKN OVER 216 (+3.8), 2. POR-MIL OVER 230.5 (+3.3), 3. SAS-DEN OVER 228.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-ORL UNDER 228 (-3.9), 2. PHX-NYK UNDER 219.5 (-2.9), 3. TOR-CLE UNDER 220.5 (-1.2)