College football expert betting picks for Week 13
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Toledo (-10.5; 54.5) at Central Michigan
The Toledo Rockets are headed to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit next week to face Miami (OH). Meanwhile, Central Michigan is 5-6 and looking to clinch bowl eligibility.
Perhaps the Rockets, who were 10-point favorites, were already looking ahead last week as they had to rally from 28-10 down at Bowling Green to win 32-31 with the go-ahead score in the final two minutes of play.Last year, Toledo was in a similar situation having clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game and lost outright as 8.5-point favorites at 4-7 Western Michigan who were only playing for pride on their Senior Day.
While the Rockets have been the class of the MAC this season, they do have five one-possession wins during this ten-game win streak.
They also could be fairly vanilla here and potentially pull starters like they did with quarterback DeQuan Finn in the aforementioned finale last year.
Bet: Central Michigan +10.5 (Play to +10)
Iowa at Nebraska (-2.5; 24.5)
The Hawkeyes will be in next week's Big Ten Championship Game in Detroit as the sacrificial lamb for the winner of Ohio State-Michigan. Despite ranking No. 121 in scoring offense and No. 130 in total offense with just 245.4 yards per game, Iowa won the Big Ten West.
On the other hand, Nebraska is trying to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2016 and should certainly be motivated to do so in Matt Rhule's first season and win the Heroes Game over the Hawkeyes.
Other than the blowout vs. Michigan, the Huskers have been competitive in every conference game but have lost four of those games by seven points or less (including three games by three points). They come in on a three-game losing streak (by three at Michigan State, by three vs. Maryland, and by seven at Wisconsin in OT).
Nebraska's luck has been the complete opposite of Iowa's as the Hawkeyes were outgained in four of their six Big Ten victories.
The Huskers rank No. 5 nationally in rushing defense, so can Iowa move the ball through the air with QB Deacon Hill, who is completing less than 50 percent of his passes and only throwing for 119 yards per game as a starter?
Now Nebraska has had plenty of its own poor QB play, but Chubba Purdy has seemingly given this offense some energy with 169 passing yards and 105 on the ground in his first start last week at Wisconsin.
Points will be at a premium for both sides here as the total is 24.5, the lowest over/under in FBS history.
The luck finally swings Nebraska's way in a close game here.
Bet: Nebraska -135 ML
TCU at Oklahoma (-10; 63.5)
The Sooners are in a must-win to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive in what is their last season in the conference before bolting to the SEC.
Meanwhile, TCU was in the National Championship Game last season and now fighting for bowl eligibility.
The Horned Frogs season started in an inauspicious manner as they lost at home to Colorado as nearly three-touchdown favorites. However, TCU has been playing its best football of the season in the last three games with close losses to Texas Tech and Texas and a blowout victory over Baylor last week.
Freshman QB Josh Hoover has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last three games including 412 vs. Baylor last week.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel and second-leading receiver Jalil Farooq suffered injuries last weekend as the Sooners were life and death to win at BYU last weekend. If one or both of them go, then you will get a better number before kickoff, but the Horned Frogs have seemingly found something, and this Oklahoma secondary still gives up its fair share of big plays.
Bet: TCU +10
Texas Tech at Texas (-14; 52.5)
Speaking of teams bolting the Big XII for the SEC, Texas is joining its Red River rival Oklahoma next year in doing just that.
Texas is also in that “must-win” situation to keep its hope alive to make the Big XII Championship Game. However, we all know that must-win does not necessarily equal must-cover.
Red Raiders QB Behren Morton has returned from injury and has led Texas Tech to three straight victories (vs. TCU, at Kansas, and vs. UCF) to get his team bowl-eligible.
Texas Tech is likely to treat this one as its bowl game as they would love nothing better than to spoil any chance for Texas to reach the Big XII Championship Game and even potentially the College Football Playoff.
Guns Up.
Bet: Texas Tech +14 (Play to +13)
Oregon State at Oregon (-14; 62)
Similar situation as the above Big XII games as Oregon is off to the Big Ten next year and “little brother” Oregon State is left behind.
While Washington has already clinched a spot in the final Pac-12 Championship Game, Oregon is in the “must-win” spot here against their rivals.
Oregon State held that same Washington team scoreless in the second half last week but could not overcome three turnovers and taking a safety on a bad punt step that ended up being the points that decided the game. The Beavers' three losses this season have come by a combined eight points.
Expect the Beavers to be run-heavy and play ball control here to keep current Heisman favorite Bo Nix on the sidelines as much as possible.
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog, but this is his first game in the role this season.
Bet: Oregon State +14 (Play to +13)
Wisconsin (-3; 43.5) at Minnesota
The Badgers' 24-17 overtime victory vs. Nebraska last weekend extended their bowl game streak to 22 straight seasons (Only Georgia at 27 and Oklahoma at 25 have longer streaks).
Now the banged-up Badgers (QB Tanner Mordecai and RB Braelon Allen are playing but nowhere near 100%) travel to face Minnesota for Paul Bunyan's Axe.