NFL Week 12 Best Bets
Off another solid week for my NFL Best Bets, we push into the Thanksgiving Weekend games with a 46-28-1 ATS record, good for 62.2% on the season. I’ve gotten a lot of feedback since the Monday night game when I went with Philly on the point spread and moneyline. I’m sure most of you watching that game came to the realization that NFL games and wagers can sometimes be decided on a single play, as that game did with the late Chiefs’ dropped pass in the end zone.
NFL betting can be quite tough in that way, and so far in 2023, I’ve gotten more breaks like that than not. I have been a victim too. In any case, after pouring through another edition of the NFL Analytics Report, I have come up with eight plays for Week 12, including two totals.
Washington at Dallas
The middle game on the Turkey Day slate pits Washington and Dallas in an NFC East clash. The last few times the Cowboys have played at home, I have been effusive in my praise for their ability to score points in Arlington. In fact, the Cowboys have put up 40 PPG in their four home games this season after scoring 35.5 PPG in their final seven home contests last season.
Two weeks ago, oddsmakers had the gall to put a sub-40 total on the game versus the Giants and Dallas put up 49 by itself. Now, with a significantly higher total of 40, I think there’s still no play here to make but Over. Not only is head coach Mike McCarthy’s team capable of putting up a big number here but Washington is as well. In their last four outings, the Commanders are scoring 24 PPG on 415.8 YPG of offense. If that weren’t enough, the last eight games of the WAS-DAL series in Dallas are 7-1 Over with Dallas scoring about 33 PPG. I’m not sure why most of the betting action has come in on the Under here, doesn’t make much sense.