Somehow, the final full regular season week is upon us already, so this will be the last edition of the college football spots piece with college basketball taking over on Saturdays in the New Year.
Last week's spots finished up 4-4 due to some hard luck. Fortunately, I had four easy winners, but three of the four losses came down to the final minute, and I just wasn't able to get a scoring drive to go my way. Although, I probably deserved all three for betting Auburn, which lost outright!
Regardless, as always, last week was last week, so there's no sense in dwelling. We're on to Week 13.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, rough weeks in this gig are inevitable. I won't avoid a 2-6 stinker Saturday in perpetuity, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much.
Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my 11 favorite Week 13 spots, split up between Friday (6) and Saturday (5). Let's close with a bang!
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023:'50-43-0 +1.76 units (53.8%)
- Overall:'95-63-1 +24.58 units (60.1%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Fri., 12 p.m. | Nebraska'-1 | |
| Fri., 12 p.m. | Central Michigan'+10.5 | |
| Fri., 12 p.m. | Temple'+11.5 | |
| Fri., 12 p.m. | TCU'+11 | |
| Fri., 7:30 p.m. | Texas Tech'+14 | |
| Fri., 8:30 p.m. | Oregon State'+14 | |
| Sat., 12 p.m. | Ball State'+7 | |
| Sat., 3:30 p.m. | Auburn'+14.5 | |
| Sat., 3:30 p.m, | Illinois'-5.5 | |
| Sat., 4 p.m. | Jacksonville State'+1 | |
| Sat., 10:30 p.m. | San Diego State'+6 |
Nebraska -1 vs. Iowa
Friday, 12 p.m. ET ? CBS
This is my favorite situational spot of the weekend.
One week after winning the Big Ten West Division following a dramatic comeback win over Illinois, the Hawkeyes will hit the highway to take on a feisty Nebraska team that needs a win to reach bowl eligibility. That would be a nice step in the right direction under first-year head coach Matt Rhule, who I'm sure will have the Huskers motivated.
I also just have the Cornhuskers power-rated as a better overall team by a slim margin.
Yes, they're 3-5 in Big Ten play, but one of those losses came against Michi gan, while the other four came by margins of three, three, three and seven in overtime with three of those defeats coming in the final seconds.
They easily could have gone 3-1 or even 4-0 in those games and be playing for the division on Friday.
Meanwhile, Iowa clinched the division last week after improving to 6-2 in league play. It lost to Penn State as expected and also dropped a close home game to Minnesota. While Nebraska has had no luck in close games, the Hawkeyes certainly have.
Just take a look at their six league wins:
- Michigan State by 10 (Trailed in fourth quarter facing Sparty's third-stringer. Iowa got outgained, 349-222.)
- Purdue by 6 (Outgained, 343-291.)
- Wisconsin by 9 (Badgers had to go to backup QB in the second half due to injury and still outgained Iowa. 332-237, in a game that was 7-6 in the fourth quarter)
- N0rthwestern by 3 (Won on a last-second field goal, 10-7, against another backup quarterback. Total yardage was 170-169 in favor of the Wildcats.)
- Rutgers by 22 (a well-deserved, dominant win)
- Illinois by 2 (Scored game-winning touchdown after critical Illinois drop in final minutes of fourth quarter against another backup quarterback.)
Color me not impressed against six clubs that each could finish .500 or worse on the season.
From a matchup perspective, teams simply can't run on Nebraska, one of seven teams in the country to allow fewer than three yards per rush. As a result, I'm not really sure how Iowa will move the ball with one of the nation's worst passing offenses.
In fairness, Nebraska also won't find it easy to sustain drives against the Hawkeyes' stingy stop unit. However, I liked what I saw from quarterback Chubba Purdy last week in a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin in overtime.
In his first start of the season, Purdy finished with 169 yards passing and 105 more on the ground to give the offense a much-needed spark that I believe it can build on this week – especially with top wideout Billy Kemp now back from injury.
The Huskers ultimately want to lean on the run, which could work here, as Iowa's run defense hasn't been quite as good as its coverage unit.
Plus, Nebraska won't have to deal with Cooper DeJean in the defensive backfield or punt return game.
Park: Nebraska -1 or Better OR ML
Notable Nugget
At the current total of 26, this would be the lowest over/under between two FBS teams in college football history.
Central Michigan +10.5 vs. Toledo
Friday, 12 p.m. ET ? ESPNU
This is a classic bet on a team that needs to win to reach bowl eligibility against a team playing for nothing. With a victory on Saturday, Central Michigan will clinch a bowl berth, which seems important to the program from what I've read.
Simply put, you can't just blindly bet the five-win teams playing for bowl eligibility on the final weekend.
These te ams have been historically profitable at around 53% against the close, which does underestimate the performance a bit if you bet these spots earlier in the week, as they tend to get bet more often than not.
However, there's nuance with each team and specific matchup. This particular one happened to make the final cut for me.
Not only do I think the Chips will come out fired up with full motivation, but Toledo may not care much about a noon kick on a Friday in Mount Pleasant with the MAC title game against Miami (OH) that the staff likely spent part of the week preparing for looming on deck.
I'd anticipate head coach Jason Candle is primarily concerned with the health of his starters.
In this exact same spot last year on the road against a bad Western Michigan team, Toledo lost outright as a double-digit favorite after pulling starting quarterback Dequan Finn in the first half.
I have no idea if the Rockets will do that again, but I'm gues sing they're more likely than not to repeat that approach after it successfully led to a MAC Championship.
CMU also has a major coaching advantage. I truly believe the Chips are live to pull off the outright upset, especially if Toledo utilizes a super vanilla game plan and holds out or pulls starters early.
Lastly, while Toledo sits at 10-1 on the season, the Rockets haven't cruised through MAC play. During their 10-game winning streak, they have five one-possession wins, which include all three road conference matchups against Bowling Green (by 1), Ball State (by 7), and Miami OH (by 4).
Pick: Central Michigan +10.5 (Play to +10)
Notable Nugget
In conference matchups sinc e 2005, five-win teams have hit at a 56% clip in their 12th game against opponents that don't also have only five wins.
Week 13 College Football Conference Championship Scenarios & Bowl Eligibility TrackerRead now
Temple +11.5 vs. Memphis
Friday, 12 p.m. ET ? ESPN
This is an awful spot for Memphis, which heads to Philadelphia for a noon kick in front of a dead crowd (tickets are as low as $5) on a short week to take on lowly Temple one week after a close loss to SMU that ended its hopes of an AAC title.
As a result, this gam e is essentially meaningless for the eight-win Tigers.
While Temple has not had a good season by any stretch, the Owls remain a bit undervalued in the market after playing two games without quarterback EJ Warner.
Temple's backup quarterback situation is as bad as any team in the country, so the offense essentially becomes inoperable without Warner.
The Owls were outscored, 99-14, without their starting signal caller against SMU and North Texas.
I can't say many nice things about the Temple defense. However, even if Memphis shows up motivated and scores at will against the Owls – who likely won't have their leading tackler at linebacker – Temple (with Warner back healthy) can still keep up in a shootout.
Just take a look at some of the following results from Memphis' league games earlier this season:
- Beat Navy, 28-24
- Won at North Texas, 45-42 on a last-minute touchdown
- Beat South Florida, 59-50
- Came back from 10 down late to beat Charlotte, 44-38 in overtime
Memphis can't stop a nosebleed, ranking as one of the nation's worst defenses on early downs, which is very predictive of future results. Give me the Owls to keep this within 10 against a potentially flat Tigers squad.
Pick: Temple +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
Notable Nugget
Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield is just 6-16-1 ATS (27.3%) as a favorite.
TCU +11 at Oklahoma
Friday, 12 p.m. ET ? FOX
These next three bets are all very similar, as I'm fading double-digit conference favorites that I believe are over-inflated in must-win situations, similar to what we see in the final week of the NFL regular season.
The Sooners must win to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive, but I don't think they should be laying double digits against a prideful TCU team that needs a win to avoid missing the postseason altogether one season after making the National Championship.
Plus, the Horned Frogs are playing their best football of the season over the past three weeks with a pair of one-possession losses against Texas and Tech followed by a blowout win over Baylor last week.
Freshman quarterback Josh Hoover has finally settled in after taking over for the injured Chandler Morris and now looks m uch more comfortable in the pocket.
During this recent three-game stretch, he has thrown for 302, 353 and 412 yards, bringing this offense back to life after it lost so many key skill-position pieces in the offseason.
Hoover has built a dynamite connection with tight end Jared Wiley, who has emerged as a bonafide threat in the red zone and on third downs.
Meanwhile, after a fairly fortunate win over Texas, Oklahoma hasn't looked that impressive outside of one home blowout win over West Virginia despite getting very fortunate in the red zone and turnover departments throughout 2023.
The Sooners easily could have lost in Norman to UCF, dropped two road games as favorites against Kansas and Oklahoma State, then inexplicably would have lost in Provo to a bad BYU team playing with a backup quarterback if not for a 100-yard pick-six in the second half followed by a short-field touchdown drive to take the lead after a Cougar fumble.
This tea m just isn't playing great football right now and is still living a bit on its reputation based on where this line opened.
It's worth noting that quarterback Dillon Gabriel and second-leading receiver Jalil Farooq suffered injuries last weekend. While head coach Brett Venables seemed optimistic both would be ready to go, there's a chance one or both can't suit up.
That's not part of my handicap, but it's a factor that could only help TCU.
Pick: TCU +11 (Play to +10)
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, TCU has gone 13-5 ATS (72.2%) as a road underdog of seven or more points in conference play, including 10-3 (76.9%) against ranked opponents, covering by an average ma rgin of just under eight points per game.
Texas Tech +14 at Texas
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET ? ABC
This is another game where I believe the spread is too high for the home favorite in a must-win situation to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive in addition to ensuring a berth in the Big 12 championship.
The Longhorns also have a few key injuries on the offensive end.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech remains undervalued after dealing with quarterback injuries throughout the season, which have suppressed its passing metrics.
Not only did the Red Raiders – who have thrived on the ground all season – have to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Strong in a pair of league losses, but Behren Morton also played a couple of games with a completely compromised throwing arm.
Well, Morton has since returned to full health and led TTU to three straight victories.
With either a healthy Morton or Tyler Shough under center, the Red Raiders have only lost two games by a combined 10 points to Oregon and at Wyoming in double overtime. This is one of the better 6-5 teams you will ever see.
Texas will also have to play with all of the pressure in this spot. With Texas Tech already clinching a bowl berth last week, it can come into Austin playing loose in a spoiler role against its in-state rival.
Expect plenty of aggression on fourth downs (as usual) to keep the pressure on the Longhorns throughout.
Pick: Texas Tech +14 (Play to +13)
Notable Nugget
Over the past 15 seasons, Texas is just 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%) as a home conference favorite of more than a touchdown.
Oregon State +14 at Oregon
Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET ? FOX
To me, this is the third case of an inflated home favorite in a must-win scenario. I'm going back to the well with the Beavers, who let me down last week in a two-point loss to Washington.
However, I actually upgraded them after that unl ucky result.
In a game where they had a 70% post-game win expectancy, the Beavers just couldn't overcome multiple failed fourth-down attempts in addition to three turnovers and a safety on a failed punt snap that led directly to nine of the 22 points for Washington, which didn't score in the second half.
One could argue Oregon State could be a little deflated after that devastating loss, but this is a huge rivalry game where it can play spoiler against its hated in-state rival. I'm assuming head coach Jonathan Smith will have his troops ready to go for the rivalry formerly known as the Civil War.
For what it's worth, the road team has gone 12-6 against the spread in this matchup since 2005 with the Beavers getting to the window four out of the five times they've been an underdog of more than 13 points in Eugene.
The Ducks are undoubtedly a top-five team in the country.
While they've absolutely humiliated a handful of comple tely overmatched teams, they didn't win by more than two touchdowns against Washington State, USC and Texas Tech while also losing by one score to Washington. Meanwhile, the Beavers have lost three games by a combined eight points.
College Football Early Bets: Week 13 Picks for Oregon State vs. Oregon, Texas A&M vs. LSU & MoreRead now
Oregon State has a run-first offense behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. That approach could prove successful against an Oregon front that can be pushed around a bit, ranking outside the national average in Line Yards and tackles for loss.
Long, methodical drives by Oregon State will also shorten the game and keep the electric Oregon offense off of the field.
Speaking of which, the Ducks have one of the most explosive rushing and passing offenses in the country.
However, they don't really throw the ball downfield at a high rate. Among 140 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks in 2023, Bo Ni x is 1-of-7 with an ADOT of 7.0 yards or less. That will offer welcome relief for an underwhelming group of Oregon State cornerbacks.
Nix is also one of only 11 quarterbacks with an average time to throw of less than 2.5 seconds, which is one of the reasons Oregon has allowed an FBS-low five sacks through 11 games.
Consequently, the Beavers will have one of their strengths of getting to opposing quarterbacks neutralized. That means they will have to make tackles in open space, which has plagued them throughout this season.
However, they have at least bowed up in the red zone, where their offense also usually converts trips into six more than almost anybody.
Ultimately, the Ducks will get their points, but Oregon State can get a few stops in the red zone and has an offense more than capable of putting up enough points to keep this within two scores.
Lastly, the Beavers will have a special teams advantage in this matchup, which could swing the cover in th eir favor
Pick: Oregon State +14 (Play to +13)
Notable Nugget
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is 14-6 (70%) as a road underdog, covering by 6.9 points per game.
Ball State +7 vs. Miami (OH)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ? CBS Sports Network
Similar to Toledo, I'm not sure Miami (OH) will want to show too much or play all of its starters in this meaningless game, especially considering it already lost starting quarterback Brett Gabbert for the season, while No. 1 receiver Gage Larvadain missed last game with a hamstring injury.
While I'm looking to fade Miami (OH) in this spot, I'm also looking to continue backing Ball State, which I tabbed as a “buy-on team” in my midseason MAC Manifesto.
Following a brutal nonconference schedule that resulted in a number of key injuries, the Cardinals have finally started to put it together over the past month with five straight covers and a 3-2 overall record.
After not having much success with either Layne Hatcher or Kadin Semonza under center, head coach Mike Neu turned to his third-string quarterback, Kiael Kelly, while transitioning to a more basic read-0ption offense for the mobile sophomore.
With injuries and a lack of talent at wide receiver and tight end, this switch played into the strength of the Ball State offense.
Meanwhile, the defense has continued to improve as the season has progressed after expected early-season struggles following the loss of three super-talented defensive backs in the offseason.
Ball State doesn't have anything to play for on paper, but this is a team playing with a lot of confidence and pride down the stretch.
Additionally, I'm sure the Cardinals would like to avenge last season's loss to Miami (OH) in the regular-season finale.
In a game where both teams needed to win to get to bowl eligibility, the RedHawks stormed back from a 17-6 deficit in the fourth quarter to pull out an 18-17 win to end Ball State's season.
Lastly, this matchup projects as super low-scoring (hence, the total of 35.5) between two plodding offenses without much explosiveness.
Consequently, that makes the underdog even more intriguing in a game where points will come at a premium.
Pick: Ball State +7 (Play to +6)
Notable Nugget
Over the past five seasons, Ball State head coach Mike Neu has gone 16-6 (72.7%) as an underdog in MAC play, including 10-2 (83.3%) against teams with a non-losing record.
Auburn +14.5 vs. Alabama
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET ? CBS
After last week's vomit show, I'm reluctantly buying low on the Tigers at home in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where weird things happen in the Iron Bowl.
Since 2005, Alabama is just 2-7 ATS in Jordan Hare, losing five of its nine games outright to go along with a two- and five-point victory as double-digit favorites.
From everything I've heard from those close to the program, Auburn got caught completely looking ahead to Alabama, essentially ignoring preparation for New Mexico State, which makes sense if you watched that game.
The lookahead line for this game prior to last week was sitting around 10.5, which is about where I had it. Now, Auburn absolutely has to be downgraded after last week's loss, but I still can't get to a spread of over 13, so I had to take the hook here.
Expect a much better effort and game plan from the Tigers after that embarrassing loss last week. Don't forget they caught the same number at home against Georgia and covered with ease. This is a simple catch-the-falling-knife pla y.
Pick: Auburn +14.5 or Better
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze owns an impressive 28-14 ATS (66.7%) record as an underdog, covering by an average margin of 6.5 points per game. That includes a 4-1 ATS mark against Nick Saban and Alabama.
Since 2005, he's been the sixth-most profitable coach out of 551 in our Action Labs database when catching points.
Illinois -5.5 vs. Northwestern
Saturday, 3:30 p.m, ET ? Big Ten Network
Here's another spot where I'm willing to back a team playing for bowl eligibility against an opponent that might be a little flat after reaching bowl eligibility themselves.
Northwestern is one of the best stories in college football this season.
After essentially being priced as a coin-flip at home against UTEP earlier in the year, the Wildcats somehow got to six wins under new head coach David Braun, who recently shed the interim tag. That's quite an accomplishment after dealing with plenty of adversity leading up to the season with a roster that doesn't have much talent for a Power 5 team.
However, the Wildcats have certainly benefited from some good fortune this season with two of their wins coming over the aforementioned Miners and FCS Howard by three in a game they finished with fewer yards.
Th ey also beat Minnesota in overtime by three after a miraculous 21-point comeback and got fairly fortunate in a six-point win over Maryland.
For a perfect microcosm of the Northwestern season, look no further than last week's one-score win over Purdue.
The Boilermakers had the statistical edge despite late scratches of their starting quarterback and best defender, but couldn't overcome a missed field goal, fumble inside the Northwestern 40-yard-line, turnover on downs inside the 30-yard-line and finally an interception in Northwestern territory to end the game.
That's the formula for scoring only 15 points despite gaining 443 total yards.
Northwestern did have a well-deserved victory over Wisconsin, but the rest has been an abundance of smoke and mirrors, having been outgained in five of six its wins, including one against an FCS opponent, while benefiting from key opponent injuries and turnover luck.
The Wildcats have a +8 turnover margin in large part due to only losing one of 11 fumbles this season.
Additionally, their two quarterbacks have combined to throw 16 touchdowns to just six interceptions despite a ratio of only 14 big-time throws to 15 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
They've also overperformed on late downs based on their more stable early downs data. Regression certainly looms for the Cats.
Even if we just look at basic surface statistics, Northwestern, which has faced an easier schedule, has a -0.5 net yards per play margin, while Illinois is nearly a full yard better at +0.4.
This Northwestern offense that ranks 125th in yards per play can't consistently take advantage of a vulnerable Illini secondary.
Meanwhile, Illinois should enjoy success through the air when it has the ball, especially with the recent emergence of quarterback John Paddock.
If not for two brutal last-minute losses to Wisconsin and Iowa, Illinois could be playing for t he division this week. Instead, it needs a win just to get to bowl eligibility.
Based on everything I've read and heard, the Illini care about getting to the postseason, so I'm backing them here in a game I project close to a touchdown in a great situational spot.
Pick: Illinois -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
Notable Nugget
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has generally bounced back well, going 33-20 (62.3%) ATS in conference play after a straight-up loss, making him the third-most profitable coach among 429 in that situation since 2005.
Jacksonville State +1 at New Mexico State
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET ? ESPN+
The Aggies are facing one of the biggest letdown spots of the season after upsetting a completely lifeless and unprepared Auburn team as near four-touchdown underdogs on the road.