The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, November 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MIAMI, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It was a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle money line bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be significant, but compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: There was a supermajority figure that stood out when analyzing the handle of bettors backing an underdog in a money line wager. This supermajority percentage was 75% or more, and this group went 10-2 for +11.35 units of profit. This is the highest R.O.I. system of the bunch by far, 94.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-CHA, DAL-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: In NBA games with extremely low totals last season, or those less than 214, the majority handle bettors were 9-22 (29%), whole majority number of bets groups were even worse at 7-24 (22.6%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DAL-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 39-15 SU and 34-17-3 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
11/18: CHARLOTTE vs. New York
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+7 vs NYK)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
11/18: CHARLOTTE vs. New York
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+7 vs NYK)
11/18: NEW ORLEANS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 vs MIN)
11/18: SAN ANTONIO vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+3 vs MEM)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 25-22 SU and 26-20-1 ATS (56.5%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
11/18: CHICAGO vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+2.5 vs MIA)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 12-8 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
11/18: CHARLOTTE vs. New York
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+7 vs NYK)
11/18: NEW ORLEANS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 vs MIN)
* Under the total was 65-35 (65%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/18: Under the total in CHICAGO-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213)
* Over the total was 61-39 (61%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
11/18: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
11/18: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220.5)
11/18: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)
* Under the total was 28-18 (60.9%) last season when the home team was on the H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/18: Under the total in MIAMI-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213)
* Over the total was 24-13 (64.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
11/18: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
* Over the total was 19-9 (67.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/18: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* CHARLOTTE is 25-10 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
11/18: UNDER the total in NEW YORK-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224)
* GOLDEN STATE is 37-11 SU and 30-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
11/18: GOLDEN STATE vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+1 vs OKC)
* MEMPHIS is 16-5 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
11/18: UNDER the total in SAN ANTONIO-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 68-42 SU and 64-43-3 ATS (59.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-3 at SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 54-17 SU and 48-22-1 ATS (68.6%).
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-3 at SAS)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 159-179 SU and 144-192-2 ATS (42.9%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-1 at GSW), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 vs MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 180-178 SU and 157-190-11 ATS (45.2%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE MEMPHIS (-3 at SAS), FADE MILWAUKEE (-2 vs DAL)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 107-41 SU and 84-62-2 ATS (57.5%).
System Match: FADE MEMPHIS (-3 at SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (117-145 ATS, 44.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (172-150 ATS, 53.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+1 vs. OKC), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+3 vs. MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 137-171 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-73 SU and 36-51-3 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (-2.5 at CHI), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+3 vs MEM)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +2 (+6.0), 2. NEW ORLEANS +6.5 (+2.3), 3. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+3.4), 2. MIAMI -2.5 (+2.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +2 (+9.1), 2. NEW ORLEANS +6.5 (+2.6), 3. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+3.3), 2. MIAMI -2.5 (+2.4), 3. NEW YORK -6.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-SAS OVER 226 (+2.9), 2. MIN-NOP OVER 219.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CHI UNDER 213 (-4.2), 2. OKC-GSW UNDER 232 (-3.3), 3. DAL-MIL UNDER 246 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +2 (+4.9), 2. NEW ORLEANS +6.5 (+3.2), 3. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+1.5), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+0.7), 3. MIAMI -2.5 (+0.3)