The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals, as we make our best Joe Burrow NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
The Cincinnati Bengals lost a shocker to the Houston Texans on Sunday to end their four-game winning streak and drop them to 5-4 on the year. In that game, Burrow threw for 347 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Burrow has thrown for 300-plus yards in three of his last five games, and he's thrown multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive contests. When he faced the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year, he finished with 222 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
Here are our best Joe Burrow NFL player prop predictions for the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Joe Burrow NFL player prop predic tions for Week 11
- Joe Burrow Over 256.5 passing yards (-101 via Caesars) ???
- Joe Burrow Over 24.5 passing completions (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Joe Burrow Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+102 via FanDuel) ????
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Joe Burrow player props
At the time of writing, FanDuel has Burrow's total listed at 252.5, and they're asking -114 for the Over. Yet we believe that there is more value in playing this prop at Caesars. The total is higher, but taking an extra four yards to get nearly +100 odds is worth it.
Burrow has thrown for 347 and 348 yards in his last two games. In the Bengals 31-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers three weeks ago, Burrow threw for 283 yards. Even without Tee Higgins again this week, we like him to have another really good yardage performance.
The Ravens are allowing just 173.1 passing yards per game. But they struggled with Burrow in Week 2, despite him being far from his healthiest self. The Bengals aren't going to stop throwing if the passing game doesn't work early. Therefore, Burrow will end up with nearly 300 yards again, whether his team wins or loses this game.
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Burrow has completed at least 24 passes in five consecutive games. He's completed at least 27 passes in each of his last three games. While he has attempted 40 or more passes in back-to-back games, we're more comfortable taking his completions to go Over than his attempts because of how accurate he's been.
Burrow has completed at least 66.7% of his passes in six consecutive games. In his last five performances, he's completed more than 70% of his passes three times. The Bengals are averaging the second-fewest rushing attempts per game in the NFL. That means Burrow will be throwing plenty tonight. If he passes the ball at least 36 times and completes two-thirds of his passes, then he'll end the game with 24 completions.
Based on recent performances, that's his worst-case scenario.
The price for this prop is shockingly strong. All of the other best sports betting apps are offering Over 1.5 touchdown passes for -113 or -115, but FanDuel has the price listed at +102. It's always a plus when you're getting a bet at +100 or better, but it's an even more valuable bet when you're backing something that has happened five times in a row.
The Bengals' offense is all about the passing game. That's why Burrow's numbers have been s o incredible over the past few weeks. But the Bengals are also a team that will continue to throw the football when they get into the red zone. The Bengals are averaging less than 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game while averaging 1.6 passing touchdowns.
The Ravens have a very good pass defense, but Burrow was able to throw for two touchdowns when he faced them back in Week 2, despite dealing with his calf injury. Healthy this week, we expect Burrow to continue his streak of two or more touchdown passes.
Joe Burrow player prop picks made 11/16/2023 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
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