Welcome to Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for our best bets for Monday’s game as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night.
Baltimore Ravens (-7, 44.5) at New York Jets
Jeff Parles: J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS! Or, actually, J-O-E, JOE, JOE, JOE as veteran Joe Flacco gets the start for Gang Green against his former team in Week 1. The Jets were a very public play in the season win-total market after a very successful NFL draft, but things have cooled with preseason injuries to Mekhi Becton and Zach Wilson. The Jets have an absolutely brutal start to the season, so getting some early wins is critical to playing meaningful games in December.
The Ravens dealt with a cavalcade of injuries last season, including to former MVP Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are the healthiest they have been entering a season since 2019 and are the betting favorites in the AFC North.
Bettors have been betting Baltimore in this game all summer long and I’m going against the herd here. I’m concerned about the Ravens’ new-look offensive line against an improved Jets defense, and the Jets are better off with Flacco starting than a compromised Wilson. If the Jets keep the turnover battle even or win it, they will have a shot to pull off the outright upset. Jackson should make enough plays to win this game, but the Jets will stay in it the whole way and cover the whole touchdown spread.
PIck: Jets + 7
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 46.5)
Femi Abebefe: In that great national debate, I’d say I land somewhere in the middle. I’m optimistic about the Dolphins’ third-year starting quarterback under first-time head coach Mike McDaniel. However, with that said, I think this is way too many points.
You don’t have to twist my arm too much to bet on a road divisional underdog, especially early in the season, and now I’m getting one that’s led by the greatest head coach in the history of the sport in Bill Belichick.
This is one of those games where I think public perception has played way too much into how we feel about these two teams. Think back to May when the schedule was released and the Dolphins were 3-point favorites. If you’re just jumping into the NFL markets now, you might not have realized that the first move with the side went toward New England — taking the line down to as low as 2 at some shops.
So what has changed since then? Well, all the reports out of Pats camp have been that they’re struggling with the offense and nobody is clear on who’s calling the plays. I’m not in love with an offense directed by Matt Patricia or Joe Judge, but I think all of the New England negativity is just noise.
Conversely, the Miami Sound Machine has been pumping out positive vibes with newly acquired wide receiver Tyreek Hill holding the megaphone. Ultimately, I think the Dolphins have a high ceiling, but in Week 1, if you’re giving me 3 and the hook with the Hoodie against a first-time head coach, I have to take it.
Pick: Patriots + 3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44)
Jeff Parles: The Steelers and Bengals enter the season with their usual roles reversed. Cincinnati, the defending AFC Champions, comes in with big expectations as Joe Burrow enters his third season. Burrow was Pro Football Focus’ fourth-highest graded QB in 2021. The Bengals have a new-look offensive line with the additions of La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras this offseason. As we saw last season in Kansas City, it takes time for a new-look line to jell.
The Steelers’ season win total of 7.5 is the lowest of the Mike Tomlin era. Mitchell Trubisky will be the Week 1 starter and, for all of the flak Trubisky has received in his NFL career, he is definitely an improvement over what Ben Roethlisberger was last season. The Steelers’ defense does have questions, especially at linebacker, but what they still possess is an elite pass rush, which should be able to give the Bengals offensive line a problem.
The Steelers won outright in a similar situation in last year’s opener as a 6.5-point underdog at Buffalo. Their defense flummoxed Josh Allen and the special teams scored a touchdown off of a blocked punt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result in this game with the Bengals dealing with big expectations for the first time in a long time. Of course, the Bengals did dominate the Steelers in both matchups last season (24-10 and 41-10), so that is the cause for concern — that this is just a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. But in the end, don’t doubt a Tomlin team as an underdog.
Pick: Steelers + 6.5
San Francisco 49ers (-7, 40) at Chicago Bears
Wes Reynolds: Neither Trey Lance nor Justin Fields, both first-round picks in the 2021 NFL draft, began last season as starting quarterbacks, but now the respective jobs are theirs. Clearly, Lance has the better situation and more weapons than Fields (although tight end George Kittle is likely to miss the opener with a groin injury). However, this is only his third career start (1-1 in 2021).
Lance will also be facing a different Bears defensive scheme brought in from Indianapolis by new coach Matt Eberflus and new defensive coordinator Alan Williams. The Bears’ defense converts from a 3-4 to a 4-3 with a Cover 2 look. The Bears kept their defensive looks relatively vanilla in the preseason, so Lance will have to be sharper with his second and third reads, which he still struggles with.
Meanwhile, Fields just doesn’t have a great deal of talent around him. Pro Football Focus rates his receiving corps 32nd out of 32 teams and his offensive line 31st. That is bad news against a 49ers defense that was top five in 2021 for opponent points per game (20.6, No. 5), yards per game (311.8, No. 4), and yards per play (5.1, No. 4) under new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans. Ryans’ group should be even better in his second season as DC.
In light of the league’s renewed emphasis on calling illegal contact this season, it can be scary to take an Under in a game with the lowest total on the board. However, the Bears’ receivers are not likely to get much separation and Fields will be pressured heavily by a 49ers front that was No. 3 in the NFL in sack percentage. Also, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan may be a bit more run-heavy in Lance’s first game as the permanent starter.
Pick: Under 40.5 (Bet MGM)
New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 42.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Adam Burke: How about a player prop to mix things up?
This one is a little chalky, but the Saints appear to have the makings of a dynamic offense with Michael Thomas back, rookie Chris Olave catching balls and a healthy Jameis Winston, who was strong in seven games last season with a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. We’ll see if the Saints are able to convert at a high rate in the red zone, but they should move the ball against the Falcons.
Lutz missed all of last season following core muscle surgery, but he’s a very accurate kicker at 86.6% on field goals and 97% on extra points for his career. He should be on target after a strong preseason.
Pick: Wil Lutz Over 6.5 Points (-130)
Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 48.5) at Detroit Lions
Femi Abebefe: In what I’ve dubbed the “Offseason Darlings’ Bowl,” I’m very interested to see which side the betting market favors between these two teams.
On the Detroit side, it’s easy to be impressed with how they’ve built this team along the offensive and defensive lines. I think general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell have a good thing going — in the future.
Unfortunately for the Lions, the future is not right now. In fact, I think the Lions end up being that popular underdog that gets taken to the woodshed Sunday. This matchup heavily favors the Eagles due to their ability to run the ball. Last season and throughout this preseason, Detroit struggled getting off blocks and stopping the run.
Well here comes the best offensive line and run game in the NFL motoring into Motown. Due to their overall roster strength, the Eagles have the potential to be the bullies on the block this season and beat up on inferior teams. By any measure, the Eagles are far superior to the Lions. Thus, I’m not going to overthink this one.
Pick: Eagles -4
Indianapolis Colts (-7, 45.5) at Houston Texans
Femi Abebefe: I really tried to avoid this game, but after the recent line move making this a 7-point spread, I have to get involved. It’s always a dangerous proposition laying points with a divisional road favorite early in the season, but I just don’t understand how this line isn’t 7.5 or 8.
Texans quarterback Davis Mills did well for himself late last season and might have a place as a consistent starter in the NFL, but did we forget this is still probably the most talent-poor roster in the league? I’m also not in love with Lovie Smith as the head coach after what we saw during his time in Tampa Bay (no need to mention his tenure in college football).
My handicap for this game comes down to the quarterback change in Indianapolis. I can’t stress enough how big of an upgrade Matt Ryan will be for the Colts after having Carson Wentz behind center a year ago. Ryan hasn’t lit the world on fire recently, but I think that was due to the horrific situation in Atlanta.
Ryan will now be protected and be able to lean on a run game that’s led by the Offensive Player of the Year favorite, Jonathan Taylor. The Colts’ defense also got some good news with Shaquille Leonard practicing in full early in the week. Regardless of whether Leonard plays or not, I just can’t see this number only being a touchdown. Give me the Horseshoe.
Pick: Colts -7
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 44)
Adam Burke: This bet largely depends on how you think this game will play out.
There’s a player prop on Antonio Gibson set at 58.5 rushing yards. Gibson went over that number in nine of the 16 games he played last season. Washington won seven of those games. As we know, there’s a high correlation between rushing success and game state. If a team has the lead, they are more likely to run the ball. If they are trailing, they are more likely to throw.
Gibson had at least 60 yards in all seven of Washington’s victories and had five of his highest-volume games by carries in those wins. Washington is a slight favorite against Jacksonville. I think the Commanders will be a little cautious with Carson Wentz in his Washington debut, so even if the game result isn’t favorable, Gibson should still get a good bit of work, especially with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined.
Pick: Antonio Gibson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (Pick’em, 42)
Adam Burke: It’s the “Baker Mayfield Revenge Game,” and while Browns QB Jacoby Brissett has had some good and bad moments in the NFL, the Panthers’ Mayfield, with a new team, new OC and newly repaired shoulder, doesn’t seem like that much better of an option.
If you stacked the rest of these rosters side by side, the Browns are the better team. This game could certainly swing either way given the line movements and all of the extenuating circumstances. One thing that seems very unlikely, however, is that the Browns get soundly beaten. Although most sportsbooks are down to a pick’em, you can still get the Browns + 1.5 at a couple of shops, which means you can put them into a 6-point teaser and take the Browns north of a touchdown at + 7.5.
The game plan from Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt is sure to be run-heavy, and the Browns absolutely have the depth of talent at running back to achieve success with that mindset. Brissett shouldn’t be put into too many situations where he can actively hurt the team, and he’s taken good care of the ball throughout his career with only 17 interceptions in 1,208 pass attempts.
I think the Browns may very well win outright, but with a low total and the chance to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7, some additional security isn’t a bad idea. The Browns pair perfectly with the Vikings in a teaser.