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Opponents lately have identified moving the ball through the air as the best way to beat the Bills, as the last two quarterbacks they have faced (Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow) attempted 42 and 44 passes, respectively. Interestingly, both players' attempts came in completely different game scripts, with the Bills never trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and never leading the Cincinnati Bengals. And while Wilson is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt over the last four games compared to 7.7 yards per attempt over the first four, per Sharp Football Analysis, a dink-and-dunk approach may play better against Buffalo's heavy zone scheme with the Bills likely willing to concede underneath passes as three of their best defensive backs are out.
The O/U of 29.5 found at BetMGM and DraftKings is a much better value than the O/U of 31.5 at FanDuel.