The 2022 NFL season is finally here and the Week 1 schedule is chock full of exciting showdowns. The Miami Dolphins will host the New England Patriots in an AFC East battle that will surely have a major impact on the standings down the road. Home-field advantage may be the key here.
The Patriots won 10 games in 2021 with a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones, so head coach Bill Belichick obviously has higher expectations this time around. Meanwhile, Miami has its eyes set on making the playoffs for the first time since 2016 behind an offense filled with talented playmakers.
Should the Dolphins be favored by more than a field goal against a divisional rival? Do the Patriots have any chance of pulling off a small upset at Hard Rock Stadium? Here's what projection models and experts across the industry have to say about the Patriots vs Dolphins Week 1 matchup.
Patriots vs Dolphins Projections
ESPN FPI:'Dolphins (51.0%)
numberFire:'Patriots (56.6%)
FiveThirtyEight:'Dolphins (58%)
Betting Favorite:'Dolphins (-3.5)
Projected Winner:'Dolphins (3), Patriots (1)
Patriots vs Dolphins Expert Picks
ESPN Experts:'Dolphins (6), Patriots (3)
Sports Illustrated Experts:'Dolphins (4), Patriots (1)
CBS Sports Experts:'Dolphins (6), Patriots (2)
Expert Totals:'Dolphins (16), Patriots (6)
Some experts are notably not afraid to back the Patriots here. Over 70% still opted to back the Dolphins, though, which lines up with what the betting markets are saying.
The projection models expect a close game. NumberFire sees the Patriots coming out on top in this one and ESPN's FPI gives the Dolphins the slightest of edges.
Divisional matchups can be tough to predict, so fans should expect an exhilarating game on Sunday.