NFL Week 10 Best Bets
I endured my first losing record in over a month this past week in the NFL action, and it just so happened to coincide with statements that the betting public had one of their best weeks of the season, according to popular sportsbooks. That is by no means coincidental. That said, I was still able to pull through with a 3-4 record in Week 9, and I’ll take that if it’s going to be one of my lesser performances. Now, overall, for the season, my won-lost record stands at 38-23 (62.3%). This includes a 7-1 record on totals after the MNF win. As I mentioned last week, hopefully, you’ve been following along and starting to read/interpret the same things I am on the weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, because they are essentially guiding my handicapping. I have seven more plays lined up for Sunday on the NFL slate.
Cleveland at Baltimore
Baltimore has injected itself into the AFC title contention conversation with four straight wins, scoring 32.3 PPG in the last three. The Ravens have been extremely balanced and potent on offense, with QB Lamar Jackson leading the way. Now they face a key divisional contest, and I can’t imagine with as hot as head coach John Harbaugh’s team, we won’t see a total focused effort.
There isn’t an overwhelming amount of handle nor bets on Baltimore, a good thing, and there are two systems from the NFL Analytics Report that catch my eye: 1) With the Browns coming off the shutout of dreadful Arizona, teams off of a home shutout win have been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 13-17 SU and 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
Also, with Baltimore having beaten the Browns 28-3 last month, teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 77-22 SU and 63-36 ATS (63.6%) in the rematch. This doesn’t look like a comfortable win for either team on the surface, but that’s exactly why I think it might be.