The 2022 NFL season is finally here, and it kicks off with a doozy. The Los Angeles Rams may be the defending Super Bowl champions, but they're home underdogs against this year's Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen and company project to be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but the betting markets project this to be a close duel between Allen and Matthew Staford, with Allen's 274.5-yard passing over/under just barely edging out Stafford's 270.5.
This game is also projected to be a shootout, with a 51.5-point total set.
Are the betting markets right? Should the defending champs really be underdogs in their own home in Week 1?
Here's what projection models and experts across the industry have to say about the Bills vs Rams Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Bills vs Rams Projections
ESPN FPI: Rams (55.7%)
numberFire: Bills (55.1%)
FiveThirtyEight: Rams (53%)
Betting Favorite: Bills (-2.5)
Projected Winner: Bills (2), Rams (2)
Bills vs Rams Expert Picks
ESPN Experts: Bills (5), Rams (3)
Sports Illustrated Experts: Bills (3), Rams (2)
CBS Sports Experts: Bills (5), Rams (3)
Expert Totals: Bills (13), Rams (7)
There's an interesting split here. The injury experts are largely buying the Buffalo hype, with two thirds predicting a Bills win. This lines up with what the betting markets are saying.
The projection models aren't quite as high on Buffalo, however, with both ESPN FPI and FiveThirtyEight calling for an upset.
With so little consensus around what's going to happen, fans can be even more excited about the season kickoff tonight.