The Denver Broncos visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills on Nov. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Orchard Park.
The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 10 matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Broncos vs. Bills Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 10 game with 81.5% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Broncos and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this Week 10 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.10 Units / 35% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+3.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos went 2-5 (-3.55 Units / -39.66% ROI).
- Broncos are 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -21.03% ROI
- Broncos are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Broncos are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 3-6 (-3.6 Units / -36.73% ROI).
- Bills are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -11.48% ROI
- Bills are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bills are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Broncos are winless (0-3) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .436.
The Broncos are winless (0-7) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Broncos are 1-10 (.091) on the road since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .436.
The Broncos are 4-15 (.211) on the road since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .455.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Bills are winless (0-3) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.
The Bills are 3-2 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .258.
The Bills were undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
The Bills are undefeated (4-0) at home this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .553.