VSiN Analytics Report for Week 10
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 10. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, DALLAS, SEATTLE, LAS VEGAS, BUFFALO
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, ATLANTA, DALLAS, SEATTLE, LAS VEGAS, BUFFALO
It's safe to assume you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%), respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ORLEANS, DETROIT, ATLANTA
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) & 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, LAS VEGAS, BUFFALO
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CAR-CHI, IND-NE, CLE-BAL, GB-PIT, SF-JAX, NO-MIN, NYG-DAL, NYJ-LVR, DEN-BUF
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-CIN, DET-LAC, WAS-SEA
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 163-186-9 ATS (46.7%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE ARIZONA, FADE HOUSTON
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 138-154-10 ATS (47.3%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE HOUSTON
Re-Tread Coach Systems
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 91-144-8 ATS (38.7%)
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE DENVER
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 95-133-9 ATS (41.7%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 150-281-2 SU (34.8%) and 196-234-3 ATS (45.6%).
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
- For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 84-131 SU and 88-119-8 ATS (42.5%) in that time span.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE NY GIANTS, FADE LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 104-110-1 ATS (48.6%) in home games but just 95-120 ATS (44.2%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE NY GIANTS, FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-163 SU and 76-104-9 ATS (42.2%).
System Matches: FADE NY GIANTS, FADE HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and nonconference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 65-87-1 ATS (42.8%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 7-61 SU and 25-42-1 ATS (37.3%) in that span.
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 37-79-1 SU and 49-67-1 ATS (42.2%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS, FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
- Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 9-12 SU but 13-8 ATS (61.9%) in their last 21 such tries. Moreover, they are 14-5-1 ATS (73.7%) in their last 20 Monday Night contests.
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 22-34 SU but 33-21-2 ATS (61.1%) since 2012.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+1.5 vs Atlanta)
Teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 13-17 SU and 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6 at Baltimore)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 17-30 SU but 32-15 ATS (68.1%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS (+1.5 vs Atlanta)
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 13-15 SU but 6-21-1 ATS (22.2%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-4 vs Carolina)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 29-26 SU and 34-19-2 ATS (64.2%) in the last 55.
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with Week 9-17 home teams going 15-17 SU and 16-18 ATS (47.1%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Week 9 and later are 31-23 SU and 32-20-2 ATS (61.5%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
- There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 15-14 SU and 21-7-1 ATS (75%) record.
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
- Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 21-28 SU and 17-31-1 ATS (35.4%).
System Match: FADE CHICAGO ATS
Bad TNF Team Trends
Carolina 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS since 2014
System Match: FADE CAROLINA ATS
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 15-15 SU and 19-9-2 ATS (67.9%) dating back to 2017.
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 9-16 SU and ATS (36%) in their last 25 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE NY JETS ATS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-14 SU and 11-14-1 ATS (44%) in their last 26, but those coming off a win are on a current 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) surge.
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 43-11 SU but just 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE BUFFALO ATS
- Hosts in non-divisional conference matchups on MNF have been on a 13-13 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) surge since 2019.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 29-22 SU but just 18-31-2 ATS (36.7%) in the last 51 MNzf games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE BUFFALO ATS
Bad MNF Team Trends
Denver seven consecutive losses, 2-5 ATS
System Match: FADE DENVER ATS
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Denver last six UNDER
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-BUF
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 11-4 SU and 8-7 ATS primetime run
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Carolina 7-13 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 primetime games
Chicago 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in the last 12
Denver 5-19 SU and 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24
NY Jets 1-10 SU while going 3-8 ATS
System Match: FADE on all four of these teams
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 15-2 UNDER since 2017
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-BUF
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 38-11 SU and 30-17-2 ATS (61.2%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at Jacksonville)
NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but are playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 18-12 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-7.5 vs Denver)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their L3 games outright have gone 46-31 SU but 27-47-3 ATS (36.5%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at Jacksonville)
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye-week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
ATLANTA Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/12 at Arizona
- Atlanta has gone 3-7-1 in its last 11 pre-bye-week games overall
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
- The Falcons are on an 11-5 Under run in pre-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
INDIANAPOLIS Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/12 vs. New England
- Indianapolis is on an 8-2 SU and ATS run in pre-bye-week games but did lose 54-19 to Dallas last year
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS
- The Colts have gone 6-9 ATS in the last 15 pre-bye-week home games but 15-2-1 ATS in the last 18 away from home
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS
NEW ENGLAND Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/12 vs. Indianapolis
- New England won back-to-back pre-bye-week games and is now 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in that situation since 2009
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
NEW ORLEANS Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/12 at Minnesota
- The Saints have gone 15-5 SU and 14-5-1 ATS in pre-bye-week games since 2003
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
- New Orleans has gone 9-2 ATS since 1999 in pre-bye-week road games
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
- The Saints are 9-3 OVER the total in their last 12 pre-bye-week games overall
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
Post-Bye-Week Game Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye-week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 104-43 SU & 88-56-3 ATS since 1999, 61.1%, +26.32 Units, 18.3% R.O.I., Grade 67)
2023 Plays: PLAY DETROIT (-2.5 at LA Chargers), PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at Jacksonville)
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
- vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 31-14-2 ATS since 2000, 68.9%, +15.52 Units, 34.5% R.O.I., Grade 68) PLAY DETROIT (-2.5 at LAC), PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at JAX)
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against nonconference opponents. (Record: 19-17 SU and 22-11-1 ATS since 2015, 66.7%, +9.89 Units, 30% R.O.I., Grade 72)
2023 Plays: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at Jacksonville)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 37-15 SU and 31-20-1 ATS since ’99, 60.8%, +8.89 Units, 17.4% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2023 Plays: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at Jacksonville)
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 18-7 SU and ATS since 2019, 72%, +10.3 Units, 41.2% R.O.I., Grade 67)
2023 Plays: PLAY DENVER (+7.5 at Buffalo)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
DENVER Post-Bye-Week Game: MON 11/13 at Buffalo
- Denver has gone 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS in post-bye week games since 2000
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
- The Broncos are on an 11-4 UNDER the total surge in post-bye week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
DETROIT Post-Bye Week Game: 11/12 at LA Chargers
- Detroit is 7-3-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012!
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
- The Lions have gone 15-4 Under the total in post-bye week games since 2004
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
JACKSONVILLE Post-Bye-Week Game: 11/12 SAN FRANCISCO
- Jacksonville is on a 9-4 ATS post-bye-week run at home, including four straight ATS wins
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS
- The Jaguars are 7-4 Over the total in their last 11 post-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
SAN FRANCISCO Post-Bye-Week Game: 11/12 at Jacksonville
- San Francisco is on a brutal 5-13-1 SU and 4-14-1 ATS run in its last 19 post-bye-week games
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO ATS
- The 49ers are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven post-bye game games vs. AFC foes
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons.
Best NFL rematch teams lately
Dallas: 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS since 2017
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-16 vs. NY Giants)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Cleveland: lengthy 7-25-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 33
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6 at Baltimore)
Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
Baltimore: 1-7 ATS in the last eight rematch home games
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-6 vs Cleveland)
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
Cleveland: 3-10 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 revenge games
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6 at Baltimore)
Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
Dallas: on 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS run following up a head-to-head series win
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-16 vs NY Giants)
High-scoring rematch teams
Dallas: 14 straight Overs in home rematch games!
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYG-DAL (o/u at 38.5)
Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and 3rd) around trends
Baltimore: 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight rematches vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-6 vs Cleveland)
Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 77-22 SU and 63-36 ATS (63.6%) in the rematch.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-6 vs Cleveland), PLAY DALLAS (-16 vs NY Giants)
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS +2.5 (+4.0), 2. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+2.3), 3. ARIZONA +1.5 (+2.1), 4. NY GIANTS +16 (+1.6), 5. LAS VEGAS +1 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -7.5 (+1.8), 2. CHICAGO -4 (+1.6), 3. PITTSBURGH -3 (+0.6), 4. CINCINNATI -7 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+6.2), 2. ARIZONA +1.5 (+4.9), 3. HOUSTON +7 (+4.6), 4. NEW ENGLAND +1.5 (+1.6), 5. NY GIANTS +16 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH -3 (+0.6), 2. CHICAGO -4 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-CHI OVER 39 (+2.3), 2. ATL-ARI OVER 42.5 (+1.9), 3. IND-NE OVER 43.5 (+1.1), 4. NO-MIN OVER 41 (+0.9), 5. NYJ-LVR OVER 36 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-CIN UNDER 48 (-4.6), 2. GB-PIT UNDER 39 (-1.2), 3. DET-LAC UNDER 48.5 (-0.6), 4. SF-JAX UNDER 46.5 (-0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +6 (+4.2), 2. NY GIANTS +16 (+3.0), 3(tie). LA CHARGERS +2.5 (+2.6) and LAS VEGAS +1 (+2.6), 5. NEW ENGLAND +1.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -7.5 (+3.2), 2. SAN FRANCISCO -3 (+1.8), 3. PITTSBURGH -3 (+1.4), 4. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+1.3), 5. SEATTLE -6 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-CHI OVER 39 (+3.4), 2(tie). CLE-BAL OVER 37.5 (+2.3) and TEN-TB OVER 38.5 (+2.3), 4. ATL-ARI OVER 42.5 (+1.7), 5. IND-NE OVER 43.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-CIN UNDER 48 (-2.8), 2. WAS-SEA UNDER 45.5 (-2.5), 3. GB-PIT UNDER 39 (-1.8), 4. DET-LAC UNDER 48.5 (-1.0), 5. SF-JAX UNDER 46.5 (-0.5)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 17-20 SU but 26-11 ATS (70.3%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +3.6, Team average PF: 22.6
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-2.5 at LA Chargers)
* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 16-6 SU and ATS (72.7%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.2, Team average PF: 25.1
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (-7 vs Houston)
* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 27-8 SU and 24-11 ATS (68.6%) in divisional games. The average line was -3.5, Team average PF: 28
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-16 vs NY Giants)
* Derek Carr (NO) is 15-26 SU and 13-26-2 ATS (33.3%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.7, Team average PF: 19.9
* Derek Carr (NO) is 30-24 SU and 16-35-1 ATS (31.3%) as a Favorite. The average line was -4, Team average PF: 23.3
Systems Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS (-2.5 at Minnesota)
* Mac Jones (NE) is 0-12 SU and ATS (0%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 18.1
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+1.5 vs Indianapolis)
* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 3-9 SU and ATS (25%) in nonconference games. The average line was +4.3, Team average PF: 18.3
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs San Francisco)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 19-25 ATS (43.2%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 17-13 ATS (56.7%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+1 vs Atlanta)
* ATLANTA is 29-51 ATS (36.3%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-1 at Arizona)
* BALTIMORE is 42-53 ATS (44.2%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-6 vs Cleveland)
* BUFFALO is 33-24 ATS (57.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-7.5 vs Denver)
* CAROLINA is 15-29 ATS (34.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+4 at Chicago)
* CHICAGO is 16-28 ATS (36.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 26-39 ATS (40%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-4 vs Carolina)
* CINCINNATI is 42-23 ATS (64.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-7 vs Houston)
* CLEVELAND is 17-34 ATS (33.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6 at Baltimore)
* DALLAS is 11-1 ATS (91.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 28-16 ATS (63.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-16 vs NY Giants)
* DENVER is 86-53 Under the total (61.9%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-BUF (o/u at 47)
* DETROIT is 29-12 ATS (70.7%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-2.5 at LA Chargers)
* GREEN BAY is 16-8 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3 at Pittsburgh)
* JACKSONVILLE is 9-31 ATS (22.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* JACKSONVILLE is 26-17 UNDER the total (60.5%) since 2021
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs San Francisco), also PLAY UNDER in SF-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
* LA CHARGERS are 30-44 ATS (40.5%) at home since 2014
* LA CHARGERS are 13-8 ATS (61.9%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs Detroit)
* MINNESOTA is 16-24 ATS (40%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 11-19 ATS (36.7%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 45-32 OVER the total (58.4%) since 2019
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs New Orleans), also PLAY OVER in NO-MIN (o/u at 41)
* NEW ENGLAND is 6-15 ATS (28.6%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+1.5 vs Indianapolis)
* NEW ORLEANS is 32-15 ATS (68.1%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 at Minnesota)
* NY GIANTS are 41-17 Under the total (70.7%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-DAL (o/u at 38.5)
* NY JETS are 7-18 ATS (28%) as a favorite since 2017
* NY JETS are 17-35 ATS (32.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 at Las Vegas)
* PITTSBURGH is 15-26 ATS (36.6%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 88-56 Under the total (61.1%) since 2015
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-3 vs Green Bay), also PLAY UNDER in GB-PIT (o/u at 39)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 16-24 ATS (40%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at Jacksonville)
* SEATTLE is 30-17 ATS (63.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-6 vs Washington)
* TAMPA BAY is 21-32 ATS (39.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 31-44 ATS (41.3%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 28-43 ATS (39.4%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-1 vs Tennessee)
* WASHINGTON is 16-9 ATS (64%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 36-22 Under the total (62.1%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+6 at Seattle), also PLAY UNDER in WAS-SEA (o/u at 46.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(113) CAROLINA at (114) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five of the CAR-CHI series in Chicago
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
(255) ATLANTA at (256) ARIZONA
* ARIZONA has won the last three ATS hosting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS
(243) CLEVELAND at (244) BALTIMORE
* Under the total is 9-3 in the last 12 of the CLE-BAL series in Baltimore
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(257) DETROIT at (258) LA CHARGERS
* Home teams have won the last four ATS in the Lions-Chargers series
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS
(251) GREEN BAY at (252) PITTSBURGH
* GREEN BAY is 4-1 ATS in the last five vs. Pittsburgh
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
(245) HOUSTON at (246) CINCINNATI
* HOUSTON is on a 5-0 ATS run at Cincinnati
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS