Here are our top odds, picks, and predictions for the full slate of NFL Week 1 games.
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Bills vs. Rams
Buffalo is coming into the season as Super Bowl favorites and has the MVP favorite in Josh Allen. Von Miller will also be making his debut against his former team in the same place he won a championship with them. Jordan Poyer has returned to practice and should be able to play, but Tre'Davious White will not play. That should be a problem against one of the league's best passing offenses which averaged 11.4 yards per completion last season.
The Rams will look to throw the ball and take advantage of their superior matchups outside. Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson should be able to get open. The Rams also add Bobby Wagner to their already stellar defense, which allowed four rushing yards per attempt. This will be a close matchup but expect the Rams' defense to make a game-changing play for their home crowd.
Picks: Rams +2.5 | Lean o52.5
Saints vs. Falcons
In their first game absent former HC Sean Payton, the New Orleans Saints visit the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South battle. Even in the midst of a regime change, many are bullish on the Saints outlook in 2022. The Saints will return both QB Jameis Winston and All-Pro WR Michael Thomas from injury, and much of their elite defense remains in-tact.
After shipping franchise icon Matt Ryan to Indianapolis this past March, the Falcons also represent a team in the midst of a transition. Atlanta, however, seems intent on building for the future rather than competing this season.
Both the expectations, and the talent disparity between these NFC South rivals are drastically different. Expect the Saints to build upon last season's early success with Jameis Winston under center in week one.
Picks: Lean Saints -5.5 | o42.5
49ers vs. Bears
This is a nightmare matchup for a Bears offensive line that ranked dead last in allowed sack rate in 2021. Nick Bosa and the rest of the 49ers pass rush that finished top 5 in sack rate should be living in the Chicago backfield all day. Justin Fields is capable of using his feet to make plays when the pocket breaks down, but the Bears got weaker at the pass-catching positions to bail him out.
On the other side of the ball, there's hope second-year QB Trey Lance can add explosiveness to the offense. It's often not wise to take a young quarterback on the road, with limited experience, laying a touchdown, but this matchup is tailor-made for the 49ers.
Picks: Lean 49ers -7 | Lean u41
Steelers vs. Bengals
The Steelers named Mitch Trubisky the starter after he beat out rookie Kenny Pickett. He may find holes in the Bengals’ secondary, which gave up 4,222 yards last season. However, there are many concerns with the offensive line.
Joe Mixon should have his way like he did last year. He averaged 5.0 and 5.89 yards per attempt in his two games against Pittsburgh. The Steelers gave up a league-worst five yards per attempt last season and did not do much to fix the issue. Expect the Bengals to establish the run early to negate the pass rush of T.J. Watt, who led the league with 22.5 sacks.
The Steelers scored 10 points in each loss to the Bengals last season and will likely score a similar amount this week. The improved offensive line of the Bengals should help them coast to an easy victory.
Picks: Bengals -6.5 | Lean u44.5
Eagles vs. Lions
The Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions will face-off in an intriguing Week 1 matchup at Ford Field. These two teams met a season ago, a game in which Philly easily beat Detroit 44-6. While one should not expect such an overwhelming victory this time around, expect Philly to once again handle their business in Detroit.
Perhaps no other team has improved as much as the Eagles heading into the 2022 season. And, pending competency from third-year QB Jalen Hurts, this team appears poised to contend in a vulnerable NFC. And while the Lions have become darlings to many via their glowing appearance on HBO's Hard Knocks, they are still a team very much in the midst of a multi-year rebuild.
Picks: Eagles -3.5 | Lean: u49
Patriots vs. Dolphins
The Patriots let J.C. Jackson walk and selected a couple of cornerbacks in the draft, but the lack of depth at the position is still a concern. They will be in for a tall test against Tyreek Hill. He is coming off back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons and had a career-high 111 receptions last season. His success will rely on Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering a make-or-break season.
Both teams changed their coaching staff and will have new-look offenses. Mike McDaniel will be making his coaching debut Sunday for Miami. Opposite him, Bill Belichick will be entering the season without Josh McDaniels for the first time since 2011. The offense is still growing, but they should look to establish the run against a Dolphins defense that allowed 109.8 rushing yards per game last season. Belichick will adjust his game plan on the fly and keep this one close.
Picks: Lean Patriots +3.5 | u44.5
Ravens vs. Jets
The Ravens were decimated by injuries in 2021, but they come into 2022 healthy and ready to make a statement. They've been given a gift by schedule makers with a matchup on the road against the Jets who ranked last in defensive DVOA last year. Though there is some hope for the future after May's draft, it won't take shape in this matchup with a dynamic Ravens offense.
On the other side, the Jets will start either Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco at quarterback. To say Wilson struggled as a rookie last year is an understatement, and if he plays he likely won't be 100%. If it's Flacco, you're getting a guy past his prime trying to do too much against his former team. Either way, a matchup with a hungry Ravens defense is not what the doctor ordered. The Ravens should dominate all facets of this game.
Picks: Ravens -7 | u44.5
Jaguars vs. Commanders
After a nightmare 2021 campaign, the Jaguars are looking for a fresh start with Doug Pederson as head coach. Pederson has a reputation of being a quarterback whisperer from helping Alex Smith revive his career in Kansas City and allowing Nick Foles to turn into a Super Bowl winner. Trevor Lawrence, under Pederson’s tutelage, has all the talent in the world to take his game to the next level, and the Washington pass defense that disappointed in 2021 is a matchup he can exploit. This Jaguars offense will surprise a lot of people, starting in Week 1.
Meanwhile, the Commanders, with Carson Wentz at quarterback, won't be able to keep pace even against a weak defense. Last year in Indianapolis, Wentz struggled in both matchups with the Jaguars, and there's no reason to think that changes enough on Sunday to put them over the top.
Bets: Jaguars +3 | o43.5
Browns vs. Panthers
The Carolina Panthers’ acquisition of former Cleveland Browns starting QB Baker Mayfield provides this contest with a degree of intrigue it would otherwise be lacking. Mayfield's recent comments only add intrigue to the matchup, and this contest has quickly become one of the most compelling of the Week 1 slate.
Cleveland should have success rushing against the Panthers' defensive front, but expect backup QB Jacoby Brissett to struggle to keep pace with a revamped Carolina offense helmed by a vengeful Baker Mayfield. The Browns have gone winless in season openers since 2004, and it is unlikely that they will buck that trend in 2022.