VSiN Analytics Report for Week 9
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #2: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, GREEN BAY, NEW ORLEANS, INDIANAPOLIS, CINCINNATI
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, LA RAMS, NEW ORLEANS, INDIANAPOLIS, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI
It's safe to assume you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) and 35-53 ATS (39.8%), respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, LA CHARGERS
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they win. In this case, mildly.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CINCINNATI, LA CHARGERS
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, SEATTLE, GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI, LA CHARGERS
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-NE, ARI-CLE, LAR-GB, MIN-ATL, LAC-NYJ
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on HANDLE for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-HOU, DAL-PHI, BUF-CIN
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-PHI
NFL Rookie/Re-Tread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 162-184-9 ATS (46.8%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Re-tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 81-119-1 ATS (40.5%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 91-143-8 ATS (38.9%)
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in ’23 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 149-280-2 SU (34.8%) and 196-232-3 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 104-110-1 ATS (48.6%) in home games but just 93-118 ATS (44.1%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE CHICAGO, FADE ARIZONA (if Clayton Tune starts), FADE TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-161 SU & 75-103-9 ATS (42.1%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO, FADE ARIZONA (if Clayton Tune starts)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 36-77-1 SU and 48-65-1 ATS (42.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CHICAGO, FADE ARIZONA (if Clayton Tune starts)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
- Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 9-11 SU but 13-7 ATS (65%) in their L20 such tries. Moreover, they are 14-5-1 ATS (73.7%) in their L20 Monday Night contests.
System Match: consider playing TENNESSEE ATS
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
- NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 13-15 SU but 6-21-1 ATS (22.2%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS (-2 vs Miami)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday Night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 29-25 SU and 34-18-2 ATS (65.4%) in the last 54.
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (45.5%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
- Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 20-28 SU and 16-31-1 ATS (34%).
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Bad TNF Team Trends
Pittsburgh has three straight losses SU and ATS
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 11-11 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI ATS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-14 SU and 11-14-1 ATS (44%) in their last 26, but those coming off a win are on a current 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) surge.
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS
- More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 9-20 SU and 10-19 ATS (34.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match: FADE BUFFALO
Good SNF Team Trends
Buffalo 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS wins since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO
Bad SNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 0-8 SU and 3-5 ATS last eight
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 10-9 SU and 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) dating back to September 2021. The last 17 of these games have seen Under the total go 15-1-1 (93.3%) as well, games producing just 34.9 PPG.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS, also PLAY UNDER in LAC-NYJ
- In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 13-12 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) surge since 2019.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 29-21 SU but just 18-30-2 ATS (37.5%) in the last 50 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE NY JETS ATS
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
LA Chargers is 9-2 Under in the last 11
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS primetime run
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
NY Jets 1-9 SU while going 3-7 ATS
System Match: FADE NY JETS
OVER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Tennessee 12-6 OVER the last 18
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in TEN-PIT
NFL Streaks provide some advantages for bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-71 SU but 56-28 ATS (66.7%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS (+8 at Cleveland)
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 18-59 SU but 48-27-2 ATS (64%) when playins as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS (+2 at Cincinnati)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 45-31 SU but 26-47-3 ATS (35.6%) when favored by 3-points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY ATS (-3.5 vs LA Rams), FADE INDIANAPOLIS ATS (*only if they become -3 favorites at Carolina*)
Pre Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 52-20-1 ATS since 2013, 72.2%, +30 Units, 41.7% R.O.I., Grade 73)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
KANSAS CITY Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/5 vs. Miami
- Kansas City is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five pre-bye-week non-divisional conference games
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS
- The Chiefs have won three straight pre-bye-week games away from home ATS, scoring 39.7 PPG
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS
LA RAMS Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/5 at Green Bay
- The Rams have gone Under the total in seven of their last eight pre-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-GB
- The Rams are just 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 pre-bye-week true road games
- System Match: FADE LA RAMS ATS
MIAMI Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/5 vs. Kansas City
- Miami has won three straight pre-bye-week games SU and ATS after a 2-7 ATS skid
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
PHILADELPHIA Pre-Bye-Week Game: 11/5 DALLAS
- The Eagles own a seven-game pre-bye-week winning streak, both SU & ATS since 2016
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
- Philadelphia is on an 11-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
Post-Bye-Week Trends and Systems
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
NO TEAMS ARE OFF A BYE THIS WEEK
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons.
NO REMATCH GAMES THIS WEEK
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+2.2), 2. NY JETS +3 (+2.1), 3. CAROLINA +2.5 (+1.1), 4. DALLAS +3 (+0.9), 5. SEATTLE +6 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS -1.5 (+1.9), 2. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+1.4), 3. KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+5.5), 2. NY JETS +3 (+4.6), 3. BUFFALO +2 (+2.9), 4(tie). TENNESSEE +3 (+2.3) and CHICAGO +7.5 (+2.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS -1.5 (+3.9), 2. CLEVELAND -8 (+1.0), 3. NEW ENGLAND -3 (+0.7), 4. INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 (+0.3), 5. KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARI-CLE OVER 37.5 (+2.6), 2(tie). MIN-ATL OVER 37 (+2.1) and LAR-GB OVER 39 (+2.1), 4. WAS-NE OVER 40.5 (+1.9), 5. CHI-NO OVER 41 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-CIN UNDER 48.5 (-4.6), 2. TB-HOU UNDER 40 (-1.9), 3. MIA-KC UNDER 50.5 (-0.8), 4. IND-CAR UNDER 44 (-0.6), 5. TEN-PIT UNDER 36.5 (-0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO +2 (+5.2), 2. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+4.9), 3. WASHINGTON +3 (+2.4), 4. ARIZONA +8 (+2.1), 5. SEATTLE +6 (+2.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS -1.5 (+5.9), 2. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+4.5), 3. KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+1.0), 4(tie). INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 (+0.3) and PHILADELPHIA -3 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-GB OVER 39 (+3.2), 2. ARI-CLE OVER 37.5 (+2.8), 3(tie). IND-CAR OVER 44 (+2.6) and LAC-NYJ OVER 41 (+2.6), 5. MIN-ATL OVER 37 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-CIN UNDER 48.5 (-2.6), 2. NYG-LVR UNDER 37 (-0.8), 3. CHI-NO UNDER 41 (-0.6), 4. TB-HOU UNDER 40 (-0.3), 5. TEN-PIT UNDER 36.5 (-0.1)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 15-1 SU & 11-4-1 ATS (73.3%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.5, Team average PF: 30.9
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS (-3 vs Dallas)
* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 15-6 SU & ATS (71.4%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.1, Team average PF: 25.1
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (-2 vs Buffalo)
* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 27-7 SU & 24-10 ATS (70.6%) in divisional games. The average line was -3.7, Team average PF: 28.1
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS (+3 at Philadelphia)
* Derek Carr (NO) is 14-26 SU & 13-25-2 ATS (34.2%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.9, Team average PF: 19.8
* Derek Carr (NO) is 29-24 SU & 16-34-1 ATS (32%) as a Favorite. The average line was -3.9, Team average PF: 23.3
Systems Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS (-7.5 vs Chicago)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 22-17 ATS (56.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 17-12 ATS (58.6%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+8 at Cleveland)
* ATLANTA is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 29-50 ATS (36.7%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-4.5 vs Minnesota)
* BALTIMORE is 41-53 ATS (43.6%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-6 vs Seattle)
* BUFFALO is 33-23 ATS (58.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 23-16 ATS (59%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2 at Cincinnati)
* CAROLINA is 12-22 ATS (35.3%) at home since 2019
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+2.5 vs Indianapolis)
* CHICAGO is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 25-39 ATS (39.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 21-40 ATS (34.4%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 18-35 ATS (34%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+7.5 at New Orleans)
* CINCINNATI is 41-23 ATS (64.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-2 vs Buffalo)
* CLEVELAND is 26-39 ATS (40%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (33.3%) as a favorite since 2017
* CLEVELAND is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
System Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of CLEVELAND (-8 vs Arizona)
* DALLAS is 28-15 ATS (65.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* DALLAS is 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in road/neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+3 at Philadelphia)
* GREEN BAY is 18-11 ATS (62.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 24-15 ATS (61.5%) at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs LA Rams)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 22-13 ATS (62.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5 at Carolina)
* KANSAS CITY is 49-32 ATS (60.5%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs Miami)
* LA RAMS are 20-10 ATS (66.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 38-25 Under the total (60.3%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+3.5 at Green Bay), also PLAY UNDER in LAR-GB (o/u at 39)
* LAS VEGAS is 26-42 ATS (38.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 12-19 ATS (38.7%) as a favorite since 2019
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (-1.5 vs NY Giants)
* MIAMI is 48-32 ATS (60%) as an underdog since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+1.5 vs Kansas City)
* MINNESOTA is 15-24 ATS (38.5%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 44-32 OVER the total (57.9%) since 2019
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+4.5 at Atlanta), also PLAY OVER in MIN-ATL (o/u at 37)
* NEW ORLEANS is 18-34 ATS (34.6%) at home since 2017
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 vs Chicago)
* NY GIANTS are 40-17 Under the total (70.2%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-LVR (o/u at 37)
* NY JETS are 10-21 ATS (32.3%) when coming off SU win since 2017
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+3 vs LA Chargers)
* PITTSBURGH is 14-26 ATS (35%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 87-56 Under the total (60.8%) since 2015
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-3 vs Tennessee), also PLAY UNDER in TEN-PIT (o/u at 36.5)
* SEATTLE is 35-46 ATS (43.2%) when coming off SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 20-12 ATS (62.5%) vs. nonconference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE is 29-19 ATS (60.4%) as an underdog since 2016
System Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+6 at Baltimore)
* TAMPA BAY is 20-32 ATS (38.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+2.5 at Houston)
* TENNESSEE is 31-44 ATS (41.3%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+3 at Pittsburgh)
* WASHINGTON is 14-26 ATS (35%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 35-22 Under the total (61.4%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3 at New England), also PLAY UNDER in WAS-NE (o/u at 40.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(309) TENNESSEE at (310) PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH has won their last 3 ATS versus Tennessee
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
(457) ARIZONA at (458) CLEVELAND
Over the total is 5-1-1 in the last seven of the ARI-CLE series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(473) BUFFALO at (474) CINCINNATI
Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the BUF-CIN series
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
(465) CHICAGO at (466) NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS is on 6-0-1 ATS run hosting Chicago
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(471) DALLAS at (472) PHILADELPHIA
Home teams are on a 8-1 ATS surge in the DAL-PHI rivalry
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(467) INDIANAPOLIS at (468) CAROLINA
Road teams are on 5-1 ATS run in the IND-CAR series but lost the last game
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS