Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL is back! The dog days of summer have come and gone and with fall rapidly approaching another football season is upon us. Action on the professional kicks off on Thursday night, when the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills. Here is our same game parlay, and also be sure to check out our full Bills-Rams preview in addition to all of our NFL previews.
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Dawson Knox racking up a fair amount of receiving yards and Gabriel Davis finding the endzone at least once would obviously work well with a lot of points being scored in the game. Let's break down each of the three legs one by one.
Over 54.5 alternate total (+120)
Both of these teams like to throw the football with alacrity. In fact, the Bills threw it at the highest rate in the entire NFL last season and the Rams were not far behind in seventh (in neutral-game situations). Former Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is now the head coach of the Giants, but the philosophy should not change much under Ken Dorsey. If anything, Josh Allen may sling it around to even greater extent in 2022 now that Gabriel Davis has emerged as a bona fide WR2 alongside Stefon Diggs. The Bills averaged 28.4 points per game 2021 and there is no reason to think they will slow down this year. Meanwhile, each side is dealing with some holes on defense. The Rams lost linebacker Von Miller (ironically to one other than the Bills!), while the Bills are without cornerback Tre'Davious White. Although L.A.'s offensive line could be a bit shaky in the early stages of 2022 following a couple of offseason departures, Buffalo's interior defensive line may be one of its weakness and probably won't be able to take advantage. All in all, these are two explosive offenses that should be able to put up a lot of points.
Dawson Knox to record 40+ receiving yards (+134)
Knox is coming off the best season of his career, scoring nine touchdowns and racking up 587 yards on 49 receptions (71 targets). He exceeded this number seven times in 2021, including in the season opener against Pittsburgh and also in a playoff victory over New England (89 yards and two touchdowns). The Bills are now facing a Rams secondary that is young and relatively inexperienced. L.A.'s defense as a whole may not be a well-oiled machine in Wek 1 (the same can be said for a lot of teams). It is also a defense that uses Vic Fangio's style of two deep safeties in hopes of limiting explosive plays. That won't impact Knox, whose average depth of target (aDOT) in 2021 was 7.2 yards. He thrives on short and intermediate routes that shoud work nicely against Buffalo. It is also worth noting that the Rams allowed the 11th-most receptions to opposing tight ends last year.